Canadian grain and oilseed outlook

Introduction: according to the report of the Ministry of agriculture and food of Canada, the total grain and oilseed production in 2002 / 03 is estimated to be about 42 million tons lower than that in 2001 / 02, due to the worst drought in some parts of western Canada since records Despite the increase in imports, the expected carry over inventory is much lower than in 2001 / 02 Canada's total grain and oilseed exports are expected to decline significantly Grain and oilseed prices in Canada and around the world are much higher than last year But global wheat prices fell from last autumn's highs, mainly due to the huge exports of non-traditional exporters such as Ukraine and Russia, and the resumption of the EU export subsidy system in December The stronger Canadian dollar put pressure on grain and oilseed prices The main oilseed and grain planting areas in western Canada are expected to increase in 2003/04 Due to the strong prices in 2002/03, spring wheat, barley and oilseed have the largest increase, but the planting area of special crops has declined The actual sowing area mainly depends on the spring rainfall, and the soil moisture content of the sub surface layer in some areas of the prairie is still low, but the recent snowfall has increased the soil moisture Wheat acreage increased in eastern Canada, but corn and soybean acreage are expected to decline D9s the Canadian Department of agriculture and food (aafc) estimates that the total grain and oilseed production in Canada will increase to 61 million tons, 19 million tons more than in 2002 / 03 This prediction is based on the fact that the rejection rate is normal and the unit yield is slightly lower than the average value, due to the lower moisture content of subsurface soil in Saskatchewan and Alberta The increase in production was offset by a significant decline in the beginning of the period in the stock and corn imports The total export volume is expected to increase by 51% to 23.5 million tons Canadian and global grain and oilseed prices are expected to be lower than in 2002 / 03 due to increased production in the United States and globally For most crops, domestic conservation policies in the United States and the European Union continue to encourage high yields, putting pressure on prices The main factors to be observed include the production status of import and export countries, the impact of high fertilizer prices on sowing area and unit yield, and the exchange rate between Canadian dollar and US dollar D9s wheat (non durum): due to a significant decline in supply, exports are expected to decline by nearly 50% in 2002 / 03 to 6.5 million tons, the lowest since 1956 / 57 The expected increase in feed consumption is due to an increase in the supply of low-quality wheat and a decrease in the supply of barley It is estimated that the carry over inventory will decrease by 29% to 3.5 million tons, the lowest since the record in modern history D9s is expected to increase production by 68% in 2003 / 04 to 2010 million tons, slightly lower than the 10-year average, due to the increase of sowing area, the decrease of waste rate and the increase of unit yield The export volume is expected to increase by 85% to 12 million tons Feed consumption is expected to decline slightly, provided that crop quality returns to normal It is expected that carry over inventory will increase to 4.7 million tons, but it is far below the 10-year average of 6.4 million tons Wheat Canada trading price outlook in February predicted that the price of 11.5% protein content of first-class CWRS would be $204 / T, compared with $267 / T in 2002 / 03 In Ontario, the sown area of winter wheat increased by 67% to a new high of 404700 ha, but the harvested area decreased due to the increase of winter necrosis rate due to the extremely low temperature in winter D9s estimates that in 2002 / 03 crop year (August to July of the next year), Canada's wheat harvest area is 6.428 million hectares, unit yield is 186 tons / ha, output is 11.976 million tons, import is 225000 tons, total supply is 17.102 million tons, export is 6.5 million tons, consumption of food and industry is 2.8 million tons, feed, loss and impurities are 3457.0 tons 10000 tons, the total consumption is 7.102 million tons, the ending inventory is 3.5 million tons, and the average price is $267 / ton It is estimated that in 2003 / 04 crop year (August to July of the next year), Canada's wheat harvest area is 8.25 million hectares, unit yield is 2.44 tons / ha, output is 2010 million tons, import volume is 150000 tons, total supply volume is 23.75 million tons, export volume is 12 million tons, edible and industrial consumption volume is 2.84 million tons, feed, loss and impurities are 3.355 million tons, total consumption volume is 705 10000 tons, ending inventory of 4.7 million tons, with an average price of $204 / ton D9s durenmeyer: exports are expected to decline by 12% in 2002 / 03 due to lower supply, increased competition from other exporting countries and good production in North Africa It is expected that carry over inventory will decrease by 14% to 1.4 million tons It is expected that the output will be greatly increased in 2003 / 04, due to the decrease of the abandonment rate and the recovery of the unit yield close to the normal level D9s supply is expected to increase by 20% in spite of the decrease in inventory at the beginning of the period Exports are expected to remain unchanged due to stable global demand and fierce competition from other exporting countries Therefore, it is estimated that the ending inventory will increase by 57% to 2.2 million tons, far higher than the 10-year average of 1.8 million tons Wheat Canada trading price outlook forecasts that the price of 11.5% protein content of first-class cwad is $227 / T, which is $50 / t lower than the price in 2002 / 03 Compared with the first-class cwrs11.5% protein content, the water yield was $23 / T, compared with $10 / T in 2002 / 03 D9s estimates that in 2002 / 03 crop year (August to July of the next year), durum wheat harvest area in Canada is 2.185 million hectares, unit yield is 1.7 tons / ha, output is 3.714 million tons, import is 10000 tons, total supply is 5.355 million tons, export is 3.2 million tons, consumption of food and industry is 275000 tons, feed, loss and impurities are 275000 tons 10000 tons, the total consumption is 755000 tons, the ending inventory is 1.4 million tons, and the average price is $277 / ton It is estimated that in the 2003 / 04 crop year (August to July of the next year), the harvest area of durum wheat in Canada is 2.39 million hectares, the unit yield is 2.09 tons / ha, the output is 5 million tons, the import volume is 10000 tons, the total supply volume is 6.41 million tons, the export volume is 3.2 million tons, the consumption of food and industry is 250000 tons, the feed, loss and impurities are 540000 tons, and the total consumption volume is 101 million tons Million tons, the ending inventory is 2.2 million tons, and the average price is $227 / ton D9s corn: Canada's corn import is expected to reach a new high in 2002 / 03 due to the decline of barley production in western Canada Higher end of period inventories are expected due to higher production in eastern Canada It is estimated that the yield in 2003 / 04 is slightly lower than that in 2002 / 03, and the impact on the yield is partially offset by the increase of per unit yield due to the decrease of the expected sowing area Imports are expected to decline significantly due to increased barley production in western Canada End of period inventory is expected to decline by 15% The average corn price is expected to fall 13% to $130 / ton due to the fall in US corn prices D9s estimates that in 2002 / 03 crop year (September to August of the next year), Canada's corn harvest area is 1288000 hectares, with a unit yield of 704t / ha, a production of 9.065 million tons, an import of 4.3 million tons, a total supply of 14.421 million tons, an export of 300000 tons, a consumption of 2.245 million tons for food and industry, and a consumption of 10.361 million tons for feed, loss and impurities 10000 tons, the total consumption is 12.821 million tons, the ending inventory is 1.3 million tons, and the average price is 140-160 Canadian dollars / ton It is estimated that in the 2003 / 04 crop year (September to August of the next year), Canada's corn harvest area is 1225000 hectares, the unit yield is 7.27 tons / ha, the output is 8.9 million tons, the import volume is 2 million tons, the total supply volume is 12.2 million tons, the export volume is 300000 tons, the consumption of food and industry is 2.6 million tons, the feed, loss and impurities are 8.165 million tons, and the total consumption volume is 1080 10000 tons, ending inventory of 1.1 million tons, with an average price of $115-145 / ton D9s canola: Canada's canola export volume and domestic pressing volume are expected to decline significantly in 2002 / 03 due to the reduced supply It is expected that the stock of stock transfer will decrease significantly In 2003 / 04, it is expected to increase by about 60%, due to the increase of planting area, the decrease of waste rate and the return of unit yield to normal level An increase in supply is expected, leading to higher exports and higher domestic crushing Carry over inventory is expected to increase but remain low The price of rapeseed is expected to decrease to $375 / T, compared with $425 / T in 2002 / 03, mainly due to the increase in global oilseed production D9s estimates that in 2002 / 03 crop year (August to July of the next year), Canada's rapeseed harvest area is 2.857 million hectares, unit yield is 1.25 tons / ha, output is 3.577 million tons, import volume is 225 thousand tons, total supply volume is 5.017 million tons, export volume is 2.3 million tons, edible and industrial consumption is 2.025 million tons, feed, loss and impurities are 197 thousand tons 10000 tons, the total consumption is 2.267 million tons, the ending inventory is 450000 tons, and the average price is 410-440 Canadian dollars / ton It is estimated that in 2003 / 04 crop year (August to July of the next year), Canada's rapeseed harvest area is 4225000 hectares, with a unit yield of 137t / ha, a production of 5780000 tons, an import of 200000 tons, a total supply of 6430000 tons, an export of 2.75 million tons, a consumption of 2.5 million tons for food and industry, a consumption of 335000 tons for feed, loss and impurities, and a total consumption of 288 Million tons, the ending inventory is 800000 tons, and the average price is $360-390 / ton D9s soybean: Canada's soybean imports are expected to decline significantly in 2002 / 03 due to increased production Domestic consumption and exports are expected to increase due to higher supply It is expected that the inventory carried forward will decrease It is predicted that the output will increase in 2003 / 04, because the increase of per unit yield will more than offset the impact of the decrease of sowing area on the output Domestic consumption is expected to remain stable, but exports are expected to increase The average soybean price is expected to decline to $290 / T, compared with $310 / T in 2002 / 03, due to increased soybean production in the United States and South America D9s estimates that in 2002 / 03 crop year (September to August of the next year), Canada's soybean harvest area is 1024000 hectares, with a unit yield of 228 tons / ha, a production of 2335000 tons, an import of 450000 tons, a total supply of 2.957 million tons, an export of 600000 tons, a total consumption of 2.217 million tons, a closing inventory of 140000 tons and an average price of $295-325 / ton It is estimated that in the 2003 / 04 crop year (September to August of the next year), Canada's soybean harvest area is 993000 hectares, with a unit yield of 2.62 tons / ha, a production of 2.6 million tons, an import of 550000 tons, a total supply of 3.29 million tons, an export of 850000 tons, a total consumption of 2.24 million tons, a final inventory of 200000 tons and an average price of $275-305 / ton d9s