Can the price hikes break through the 2011 highs?

In 2011, Baiqian experienced a high price of 180 yuan (kg price, the same below), but the price has been hovering around 13 yuan in the past two years.
Farmers are not very enthusiastic about planting
.
After the price rises after the production of new products in 2021, can the market outlook continue to rise? In this issue, Tiandi Yuntu's big data platform for the pharmaceutical industry will analyze the product market based on production and sales data
.
1.
The market moves smoothly, and many traders pay attention to Bozhou market: the new production is over before the white, the new volume of this year is small, the recent market demand for supply is acceptable, and the market continues to rise
.
The current market price of white goods is 33-34 yuan, and high-quality products are between 45-50 yuan.
Many operators and merchants are paying attention to price changes
.
Anguo market: Affected by the volume of new goods produced before the White House, holders are optimistic about the market outlook and have a strong sense of reluctance to sell.
Small quantities of goods move smoothly, and the market continues to rise
.
The current market price for unified goods is about 34 yuan, and the price of high-quality goods is 45-50 yuan.
Merchants are concerned about the digestion of the supply
.
Yulin Market: In the early days, prices rose too fast before the white, and recently entered the actual digestion stage, the movement has slowed down, and the market has turned from rising to stable
.
The market price of unified goods is around 34 yuan, and the price of high-quality goods is between 45-50 yuan.
The price may change in the future
.
According to the merchants in the Hubei Xinzhou production area, the low prices in the early stage of Baiqian have attracted the attention of businesses.
This year, the supply of goods has been relatively smooth after the production of new products, which has driven prices to continue to rise.
The production area is expected to continue to increase in prices until mid-January next year
.
Because of the low prices for several consecutive years, the planting area of ​​Baiqian has been reduced.
The price of the products with better quality of production is 34 yuan, and the price of selected goods is between 45-48 yuan.
It is expected that the price will continue to rise in the later period
.
2.
The price rose rapidly and returned to the high market price in 2017.
The market price trend of Baiqian market from 2016 to 2021.
In the past 20 years, the market price of Baiqian market has experienced two high prices
.
The first high price period was in August 2011
.
Affected by the continued low price, the planting area of ​​Baiqian has been shrinking year by year
.
In 2010, the output of new products dropped sharply, coupled with the fact that old products were basically out of stock, and the market was in short supply, causing the price to rise to a historic high of 180 yuan
.
The second high price period occurred in March 2017
.
After the high prices in 2011, from 2012 to 2016, the Baiqian market continued to slump again, the planting area has been shrinking year after year, the stock of old goods has decreased, and the price has risen again
.
In March 2017, the price of the Baiqian Goods Co.
, Ltd.
rose to around 40 yuan, but the increase this time was far less than the first high price period
.
Entering October 2021, the white market saw its third high price, and the reason for the price increase was the same as the previous two
.
In 2019, the price of Baiqian fell to 13 yuan, and the planting area decreased.
In 2021, the price of Chinese medicinal materials will rise again, and the price of Baiqian will also increase for the third time
.
3.
The production area is concentrated, and the supply and the market are easy to be manipulated.
The production areas of home-grown whites are concentrated, mainly distributed in Wuhan Xinzhou District, Laifeng County and Tuanfeng County in Hubei Province.
The local production accounts for about 90% of the country's total production
.
The wild resources of this species are also widely distributed, but due to the low price for a long time, the areas with harvesting habits are limited
.
This variety has a short growth cycle.
Seedlings are generally grown in February and April, and transplanted in April and May.
The rootstocks can be harvested when they mature from October to November, with an average yield of 300-400 kg per mu
.
According to statistics from Tiandi Yuntu's pharmaceutical industry big data platform, the output in 2020 will be 1893 tons
.
4.
Low demand Baiqian, also known as Willow Leaf Baiqian or Shuiyang Liu, is a commonly used wild plant medicine.
Its underground rhizomes and roots are used as medicine to clear the lungs and resolve phlegm, relieve cough and relieve asthma
.
Baiqian, as a blindly lowering qi, relieving cough and resolving phlegm, can be used raw or honey-burned, and is widely used in folk
.
In addition to domestic demand, there are 200-300 tons for export every year
.
According to the statistics of the big data platform of the pharmaceutical industry in Tiandi Yuntu, the consumption in 2020 will be 1,719 tons.

.
V.
Analysis of main products and enterprises in demand.
In terms of the demand for Chinese patent medicines, the 7702 kinds of Chinese patent medicines monitored by the platform were screened.
At present, 54 Chinese patent medicines contain Baiqian
.
The Chinese patent medicines that are in high demand before Baiqian are strong loquat dew, orange red phlegm cough liquid, cough loquat granules and so on
.
Needs front of medicine enterprises are credible in Jiangxi Jimin Pharmaceutical Co.
, Ltd.
, Guangdong of the state in the pharmaceutical Pharmaceutical Co.
, Ltd.
, Harbin Kang Pharmaceutical Co.
, Ltd.
and so on
.
6.
Market outlook 1.
The price has risen to 16 yuan, and the large land contractors have the enthusiasm for planting.
The investment before the white planting is mainly in the mining process.
If the farmers plant themselves, the input cost can basically be ignored; the contracted land planting is the manual mining cost It is about 2000-2500 yuan per mu, plus 500 yuan for land lease, 200 yuan for buying seedlings, and 300 yuan for pesticides
.
In contrast, the cost of land contracting for planting is relatively high.
The cost of land contracting for planting is 3,500 yuan per mu.
Calculated based on the yield of 300-400 kg per mu, the cost per kilogram is between 8.
75-12 yuan
.
For contracted land planting, the price of Baiqian can be planted if it rises to 16 yuan, and the planting area will be reduced if the price is lower than 16 yuan
.
2.
With a short growth cycle, resources are easy to recover before the white goods supply can easily be replenished, so it is difficult for the market to make a big breakthrough in the long-term
.
Usually only the production area suffers severe disasters or man-made manipulations, will there be a significant increase
.
3.
The single channel with high variety and professionalism.
Whether it is quality control or circulation channels, it is usually difficult for external funds or operators to intervene.
Unless it is a perennial operator or supplier, the opportunity to rise can be grasped
.
In summary, the price increase cycle in front of Baixian is generally less than one year.
Although the price has room for 10-15 yuan increase from the historical market, there is not much time left for the holders to ship this year.

.
As long as there is no major reduction in production next year, and the output increases compared with this year, the price will fall
.