Can the domestic stock of laying hens recover in the first quarter of 2022?

 　　[Introduction] In 2021, the domestic laying hen inventory is on a shrinking trend, with an average monthly inventory of 1.
18 billion, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 10%, which is the lowest level in the past five years
.

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　　figure 1ecC China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The direct factors that affect the stock of laying hens are the number of chicken fry supplements, the number of eliminated chickens, and the stock base.
The fluctuation cycle is generally 3-4 years
.

　　Analysis of influencing factors-the number of chicken fry supplements and the age of cullingecC China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

ecC China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　figure 2ecC China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The sales volume of chicks affects the stock volume from an incremental dimension
.
In theory, the stock of laying hens is determined by the total sales of chicks in the first 5-16 months
.
According to the monitoring data of Zhuo Chuang Information, the total sales of chicken fry from 18 representative companies in 2020 will drop by nearly 25% year-on-year.
In the first half of 2021, the sales of chicken fry will only increase by 3% compared with the same period in 2020.
Therefore, laying hens will be in 2021.
After the inventory drops to a low level, it will be more difficult to upgrade
.
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　　The age of culling chickens affects the stock of laying hens from the dimension of reduction
.
Figure 3 shows that in 2020, the breeding cycle of laying hens in China will gradually shrink, from 510 days to 450 days, that is, from delayed elimination to normal elimination; the average age in the first half of 2021 is mostly 450 days, and then there will be a slow increase
.
According to the monitoring data of Zhuochuang Information, as of the second week of December, the annual average age of elimination has been extended to 504 days, an increase of 11.
50% over the same period in 2020, and nearly two months longer than the normal age of 450 days
.
ecC China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

ecC China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　image 3ecC China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In the first quarter of 2022, the stock of laying hens grows slowlyecC China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　According to the inference of the breeding cycle, the theoretical increase in the stock of laying hens in the first quarter of 2022 will be determined by the sales of chicks in the fourth quarter of this year.
The elimination age is 504 days based on the latest data in December, and the theoretical reduction in the stock will be reduced from the fourth quarter of 2020.
The sales of chickens, plus the stock base in November, can calculate the average monthly change in the stock of laying hens in the first quarter of 2022
.
Zhuo Chuang Information predicts that the stock of laying hens in the first quarter of 2022 will increase as a whole, but the intensive production of chickens eliminated before the Spring Festival in January will result in a decrease in the stock volume.
The stock volume in February and March increased by 1.
08% and 1.
08% respectively.
2.
04%, the growth rate is relatively slow, fluctuating around 1.
2 billion
.
After the Spring Festival enters the peak season for replenishment, the stock of laying hens is expected to gradually pick up in the second half of the year
.
On the whole, the stock of laying hens in 2022 will increase year-on-year, but the increase will be small
.
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ecC China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Figure 4ecC China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The year-on-year increase in egg prices in the first quarter of 2022 narrowsecC China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Based on the above-mentioned changes in the number of laying hens and the seasonal changes in egg prices, and without considering unexpected factors, Zhuo Chuang Information expects that the egg price will rebound after a high decline in the first quarter of 2022.
The trend is different from that of last year.
On the whole, it is consistent with seasonal characteristics.
The monthly average price rose 5.
38%, fell 2.
70%, and rose 5.
56% respectively year-on-year
.
ecC China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

ecC China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Figure 5ecC China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In terms of time intervals, egg prices rose first and then fell in January.
In the first half of the Spring Festival, stocks were stocked, and the market moved faster to drive egg prices up.
Then due to the end of stocking, various markets entered a closed state, and egg prices fell weakly; the February Spring Festival holiday returned , The backlog of production links is a little too large, the egg price may open lower, and the demand is slowly picking up, the market is not fast, and the egg price may continue to be low within the month; in March, as migrant workers return to the city, spring plowing begins, etc.
, various industries Under normal operation, demand will return to normal levels, and egg prices may rebound from a low level.
However, due to inventory constraints, there is a lack of sustained upward momentum
.
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