Can the "chicken cycle" repeat the "strongest pig week."

The economic value of the white feather broiler industry is huge, and the consumption has been growing in recent years, and the slaughter volume of white feather broiler chickens in China has increased year after year, with a compound growth rate of 13.
8% from 2018 to 2021, of which 5.
81 billion were slaughtered in 2021, an increase of 18% year-on-year, and has become the second largest meat consumer product
in China.
Traditionally, white-feathered broiler chickens are mainly consumed by group meals + catering, but in recent years, the proportion of household consumption has been increasing, from less than 20% in 2018 to 38%
in 2020.
With the liberalization of the epidemic and the repair of public catering, it is expected that the consumption of white chicken in China will further grow
.
aQU-，

The amount of ancestral renewal has dropped significantly, and the introduction dilemma is difficult to solve the short-term overseas introduction gap, and it is expected that the annual introduction volume is much lower than the equilibrium requirement
.
Overseas introductions were normal from January to April this year, but after April, due to flight problems and avian influenza, overseas introductions dropped sharply, and the number of overseas introductions from May to July and October-November was 0.

From January to November 22, the cumulative renewal volume of China's ancestors was 862,100 sets, down 26.
64% year-on-year, and it is expected that the annual renewal volume will be less than 1 million sets
.
In recent years, the consumption of white feather broiler chickens in China has increased steadily, and the balanced introduction amount needs to reach 110-1.
2 million sets, and the gap is obvious
.
aQU-，

It is difficult to solve the dilemma of restricted introduction in the short term: 1) The international avian influenza situation is grim, and it is difficult to recover
from overseas introduction in the short term.
According to WAHO statistics, avian influenza has affected 67 countries and regions around the world; As of November, there were more than 4,000 cases of avian influenza in the world in 2022, and nearly 100 million poultry were killed and culled, making it the worst bird flu
in history.
At present, only Alabama (only one of the three major introduction states) and New Zealand (only one of the three major introduction states) are left in China; 2) Self-breeding varieties are still in the promotion period, and it will take time to achieve complete replacement
.
aQU-，

Reduced ancestral performance, limited forced moulting, further reduced uncertainty, and increased overall supply by extending the egg production cycle, caused significant disruption to the industry in 2015-2016
.
However, at present, the performance of China's ancestors has declined significantly, and the problem of industry diseases is prominent
.
According to the data of the association, in recent years, China's ancestral production capacity has been declining, from 2019 to 2021 were 60.
14, 57.
56 and 56.
24, respectively, and is expected to further decline to 53.
97 in 2022.
aQU-，

2023 VS 2019: Can the "Chicken Cycle" repeat the "Strongest Pig Cycle"?aQU-，

Since 2011, the industry has experienced five rounds of cyclical fluctuations, of which from 2017 to 2019, driven by the lack of introduction and the "strongest pig cycle", the white feather broiler industry also ushered in the best profit time
in history.
Compared with 2017-2019: 1) Common denominator: introductions have declined significantly and forced moulting is greatly restricted
.
2022 is only the first year of introduction, the world is currently experiencing the worst bird flu in history, the shortage of overseas introduction is difficult to solve in the short term, and the introduction volume is expected to continue to be low in 2023
.
In terms of forced moulting, the main drag factor is the decline in ancestor performance, which may have a greater impact than the shortage of breeding roosters in 2017-2019.
2) Differences: The consumption side changes greatly
.
From 2017 to 2018, the domestic demand for white-feathered broiler chickens was relatively stable, but the shortage of pork caused by African swine fever in 2019, and the "alternative demand" of chicken was the core reason why
the industry prosperity reached a high point.
The current overall demand has increased significantly compared with 2019, and there is a catalyst
for post-epidemic demand recovery in 2023.
aQU-，

In 2023, it is a definitive event
that white-feathered broiler chickens will usher in a new round of high economic cycle.
From the current introduction situation, it is currently in the early stage of the formation of supply shortage in 2017-2018, and whether it can reach the height of the "super chicken cycle" in 2019 depends on the recovery of
demand after the epidemic.
At present, the impact of upstream supply shortage has been reflected, and it will be further transmitted
downstream in 2023.
a) The inventory of ancestors continues to decline
.
By November 2022, there were 1,730,500 sets of ancestral inventory nationwide, a year-on-year decrease of 6.
04%, and a decrease of 9.
1% from the July high; b) Rapid increase in parental prices
.
The price in October was more than 20 yuan/set, in November it was 42 yuan/set, and the price exceeded 50 yuan/set
in December.
aQU-，

Investment advice: the cycle is up, and the whole production chain benefitsaQU-，

In 2023, the industry will usher in a high boom cycle
.
In 2022, the amount of ancestor introduction in China is far lower than the equilibrium requirement; Moreover, the current global avian influenza situation is grim, it is difficult to recover in the short term, and the industry supply gap has formed and is increasing
.
The decline in ancestral performance has a greater restriction on forced moulting, and the uncertainty factors in the industry are further reduced
.
Continue to be optimistic about the performance of the white feather broiler industry in 2023, and are expected to get out of the "independent market" and usher in a high boom cycle
.
aQU-，