Can Sanqi expand production and push down prices cool down the whole traditional Chinese medicine

As a representative variety of the price trend of traditional Chinese medicine, Sanqi has always had a direct impact on the price of bulk medicine In recent three years, the price of Panax notoginseng, a large quantity of traditional Chinese medicine, has been paid more and more attention because of its rising price and breaking new highs However, recent news from the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain said that the price of 37 is expected to start to fall gradually this year and next year In the eyes of market participants, the rational return of the price of this benchmark variety may pave the way for the overall cooling of the price of traditional Chinese medicine The data from market monitoring agencies made the Chinese patent medicine manufacturers very worried Since this year, the price of March 7th has continued to rise on the basis of high price The average price at the highest time has risen to 600 yuan / kg, and the cutting price is close to the level of 860 yuan / kg, which is 20 times higher than the price at the lowest time in 2006 In addition, the price of Panax notoginseng seeds has been 20 times higher than before According to several enterprises in the industry, the high price of 37 has brought heavy cost pressure to the downstream production enterprises, and most of them have been in a loss state for three consecutive years "This situation is very disadvantageous in the face of the sustained and healthy development of the industry First, the production enterprises reduce production and stop production, and the market share of 37 products is occupied by other similar products, which will lead to a long-term decline in the demand for 37 products; second, some enterprises make use of the defects of low standard requirements in China, adulterate and make fake, resulting in a decline in product quality, and ultimately lose consumers No matter which of the above conditions is unfavorable to the long-term development of the 37 industry " Baiyunshan Hutchison Huangpu (market, information, comments) company marketing department people said According to the current popular saying in the industry, the rapid rise of the price of March 7th is mainly due to the following aspects: first, the contradiction between supply and demand It is estimated that the annual demand for 37 is about 7 million kg In the past three years, although the output of 37 has increased, it has not exceeded 5 million kg, with an annual gap of 2 million kg Although there is inventory offset from 2006 to 2008, by the beginning of 2012, the surplus inventory has been basically consumed This is also an important reason why the price of March 7th in 2012 continued to rise; second, artificial speculation In recent years, the price of "March 7th" has been advancing rapidly, which is related to a large number of drug companies' hoarding, and the number of hawkers operating "March 7th" has also increased explosively; third, the impact of climate factors Three years of continuous drought in Yunnan has contributed to the expectation that the price of Panax notoginseng will continue to rise The drought affected the cultivation of Panax notoginseng to a certain extent, resulting in the slow growth of planting area before 2011, the reduction of unit yield and the small increase of total yield However, according to the latest report of Yunnan Wenshan No.37 Research Institute, from the perspective of the planting and development of No.37 in 2012, the price decline of No.37 is the general trend In 2012, the planting area of Yunnan's 37 production areas reached about 160000 mu, the highest level ever Among them, in 2012, the harvesting area of Sanqi is about 50000 mu, and the output is expected to reach 8.5 million kg The price of Sanqi should be reduced to about 300 yuan / kg "The impact of the drought in 2012 is smaller than that in 2010, and the drought will be relieved in May, which is not much different from that in normal years for July 7th If the weather is favorable in the later period, the output will increase by 2-2.6 million kg in 2012 compared with that in 2011, with the largest increase in recent five years In addition, the continuous increase of prices in recent years has brought cost pressure to downstream production enterprises " Cui Xiuming, President of the Institute According to Cui Xiuming's investigation, the two largest production quantities of Panax notoginseng are Xuesaitong series products and compound Danshen series In addition to three Xuesaitong powder injection production enterprises, the oral preparations, except for Xuesaitong dropping pills and Xuesaitong Soft capsules, have some profits, and almost all the other products are in deficit The production enterprises only use low production volume to tide over the difficulties In addition to the compound Danshen dropping pill, the traditional compound danshen tablet has a very serious price inversion phenomenon, most of the production enterprises can only stop production In the first half of 2012, after the high price rise of March 7th, the social demand of March 7th drinks also decreased In addition, the downstream enterprises with large demand in March 7th have set up production bases in the production areas in order to reduce the impact of sharp price increase in the market, and also reduce the direct demand for the market in an invisible part "Without the influence of extreme climate and policy factors, in 2013, the planting area of Sanchi in Yunnan will reach more than 240000 mu (40000 mu of seedlings this year, 150000-160000 mu of seedlings can be transplanted next year), double that of 2007 Among them, the harvesting area is more than 60000 mu, and the output is likely to exceed the 10 million kg mark The situation of oversupply will appear In 2014, the area of 37 harvest is only calculated as 120000 mu, and it will reach more than 18 million kg If this situation occurs, the downward trend of 37 price will be inevitable " Cui Xiuming said in the investigation report High fever or cooling of Chinese herbal medicine? Panax notoginseng, as a representative variety of the price trend of traditional Chinese medicine, has always had a direct impact on the price of bulk medicine Before that, Sanqi had once driven up the prices of other Chinese herbal medicines by virtue of the concept of drought and production reduction So, can the price of Panax notoginseng cool down drive the price of traditional Chinese medicine to return to rationality as a whole? In this regard, Jia Haibin, deputy director of the traditional Chinese medicine information center of the China Association of traditional Chinese medicine, believes that the overall price trend of Panax notoginseng will indeed gradually decline However, the most rapid decline is expected to be in 2013, and whether the driving effect can appear remains to be comprehensively analyzed in all aspects "According to the growth cycle, the price of 37 should have fallen this year But because of the drought, the fall was delayed As a result, we expect price falls to occur in 2013 As for whether it can drive the price of traditional Chinese medicine to return, we believe that although Sanqi is a representative product, it is a regional variety of "one real estate, one global market" and also has the factor of growth cycle Therefore, it needs other factors to drive the price of traditional Chinese medicine to return to rationality " However, Jia Haibin also said, "it is the general trend that the price of traditional Chinese medicine returns to the ideal as a whole." According to him, the national development and Reform Commission has been paying close attention to the problem of persistently high prices of traditional Chinese medicine, so it is not ruled out that the national development and Reform Commission will issue policies to continue to crack down on hoarding and curiosities.