Can domestic soybean bear the impact of transgenic? Improving competitiveness is long

Introduction: on March 20, 2002, the three management measures for agricultural genetically modified organisms issued by the Ministry of agriculture were officially implemented They are respectively administrative measures for safety evaluation of agricultural genetically modified organisms, administrative measures for import safety of agricultural genetically modified organisms and administrative measures for labeling of agricultural genetically modified organisms The measures for the administration of safety assessment stipulates that the use of genetic engineering technology to change the composition of genome, and the safety assessment of plants, animals, microorganisms and their products used in agricultural production or agricultural products processing shall be carried out It mainly includes: genetically modified animals and plants (including seeds, livestock and poultry, aquatic seedlings) and microorganisms; genetically modified animals and plants, microbial products; direct processed products of genetically modified agricultural products; seeds, pesticides, veterinary drugs, fertilizers and additives containing genetically modified animals and plants, microorganisms or their product ingredients The measures for the administration of import safety stipulates that the imported agricultural genetically modified organisms shall be managed according to the three purposes of research and test, production and processing raw materials For agricultural genetically modified organisms to be used for research and test, the introduction unit shall apply to the Ministry of agriculture stage by stage from the intermediate test stage Before the production and application of agricultural genetically modified organisms for production, the safety certificate of genetically modified organisms issued by the Ministry of Agriculture shall be obtained before the corresponding formalities can be handled in accordance with the provisions of laws and administrative regulations on seeds, breeding livestock and poultry, aquatic seedlings, pesticides, veterinary drugs, fertilizers and additives If the imported agricultural genetically modified organisms are used for production or processing raw materials, the contract can only be signed after obtaining the safety certificate of agricultural genetically modified organisms issued by the Ministry of agriculture According to the labeling management measures, all agricultural genetically modified organisms listed in the labeling management catalogue and used for marketing shall be labeled; those that are not labeled and do not follow the regulations shall not be imported or sold The agricultural genetically modified organisms listed in the agricultural genetically modified organisms identification catalogue shall be identified by the production and sub packaging units and individuals; if the business units and individuals open the original packaging for sale, they shall be re identified The first batch of agricultural genetically modified organisms to implement labeling management include soybean, corn, rape, cotton, tomato and their related processed products Background 2 from March 15, 2002, the soybean futures contract amendment plan of Dalian Commodity Exchange approved by China Securities Regulatory Commission was officially implemented The "yellow soybean No.1 futures contract" was officially listed and traded in March, may and July 2003 The subject matter of the contract is non GMO yellow soybean It has been more than 9 years since the merger of non GM soybean and GM soybean Yellow soybean No.1 futures contract refers to the contract after the replacement delivery of genetically modified soybeans is removed from the original soybean futures contract, and the grain index system based on the current national standards for soybeans is continued to be used, while the aging index of soybeans is increased; yellow soybean No.2 futures contract plans to adopt the soybean index system for oil extraction based on the international soybean quality standards, It mainly focuses on the standard of soybeans for oil extraction, and when the conditions are mature, it will be launched at the right time As of the mid-1990s, China has been a net exporter of soybeans However, since 1996, China began to import a large number of soybeans, most of which are genetically modified soybeans In 1996, it imported more than 1.1 million tons, which increased to 4.3 million tons in 1999 In 2000 and 2001, the import volume increased sharply to 10.42 million tons and 14 million tons Recently, Premier Zhu Rongji mentioned in response to the questions of Chinese and foreign journalists that in recent years, the genetically modified soybeans exported by the United States to China have reached the annual output of non genetically modified soybeans in China Obviously, China has changed from a traditional soybean exporter to a big soybean importer This great change has attracted the attention of all walks of life and the government related to soybean On March 20, the highly concerned management measures for agricultural genetically modified organisms were officially implemented, and soybean and other genetically modified foods must be labeled when they enter the domestic spot market of agricultural products From March 15, the yellow soybean futures contract in the agricultural product futures market is divided into two parts The yellow soybean No.1 futures contract excludes the genetically modified soybean from the original soybean futures contract for alternative delivery For China's agriculture, this can be said to be the first competition with the international market under the new rules Soybean is the earliest agricultural product with market price liberalization in China The significance of dissecting soybean lies in analyzing the competitiveness of the whole Chinese agriculture So why do we import so many soybeans? Why are domestic non GMO soybeans lack of competitiveness? Can China's non GM soybeans withstand the impact of imported GM soybeans? What suggestions do you have for relevant policies? Please hear from all walks of life As Premier Zhu Rongji mentioned in his reply to the reporter's question, the annual output of soybeans exported from the United States to China in recent years has reached 15 million tons There is a heavy data report in front of the reporter: China used to be a net exporter of soybeans, but since 1996, China began to import a large number of soybeans In recent years, the import of soybeans has increased in a straight line, most of which are genetically modified soybeans More than 1.1 million tons were imported in 1996, 3.19 million tons in 1998, 4.3 million tons in 1999, 10.42 million tons in 2000, and 14 million tons in 2001 The import of soybean has been approaching the annual output of soybean in China Obviously, China has changed from a traditional soybean exporter to a big soybean importer Not only soybean, but also soybean oil This year, the current 3% tariff on soybeans will be implemented, and tariff quota management will not be adopted At the same time, the import tariff quota of soybean oil increased to 1.7 million tons In 2005, it increased to 3.3 million tons In 2006, the tariff quota was cancelled This means that in addition to directly facing the impact of soybean imports, domestic farmers should also bear the pressure of import quota soybean equivalent to 8.5 million tons to 16.5 million tons Besides soybean oil, there is soybean meal Every year, our country imports 34 million tons of soybean meal, a by-product of soybean processing used as feed This will not only consume a lot of foreign exchange, but also bring a serious blow to the farmers in the main soybean producing areas On the one hand, "foreign soybeans" are imported in large quantities On the other hand, a large number of soybeans are hard to sell in China, and "golden soybeans" have become "worried soybeans" If this situation does not fundamentally change, including the northeast, North and South emerging soybean producing areas are also affected Some experts worry that if we don't take measures, the soybean industry in this ancient soybean country will probably be destroyed The importance of soybeans lies first in international trade The international trade volume of soybeans (including oil and meal) is more than 80 million tons, second only to wheat and miscellaneous grains In terms of economic value, soybean is the highest American soybean output is more than 70 million tons, export is more than 30 million tons, and trade volume is more than 10 billion US dollars China is a traditional soybean producing country, with a planting area of 120 million mu, directly involving 50 million farmers Therefore, the rise and fall of soybean prices in the market will affect the interests of 50 million farmers Why China imported so many soybeans up to the end of last century, China has been using tariff and non-tariff policies to control the import of soybeans In the middle and late 1990s, the protection level of soybean in China was 30% - 50%, higher than other main crops competing with soybean, such as wheat, corn, cotton, etc Huang Jikun of the agricultural policy research center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences believes that this high level of protection is the result of long-term policy intervention leading to backward soybean technology and high production costs For a long time, things that only adapt to the "greenhouse" cannot stand the wind and rain Therefore, it is very normal that the import of soybeans should be fully liberalized in 2000 and the import of soybeans should be increased rapidly Huang Jikun believes that in the long run, high protection is not worth the loss It not only damages the interests of consumers, hinders the development of soybean processing industry, but also has a negative impact on the enthusiasm of the adoption of new soybean technology, and has no advantages or disadvantages on the rational utilization of limited arable land resources Yu Xubo, general manager of COFCO Grain and oil import and export company, believes that the main reason for the increase in soybean imports in recent years is the lack of supply In recent years, the substantial increase of residents' income is directly reflected in the increase of demand for meat, eggs, milk and aquatic products, which leads to the increase of feed demand and soybean meal demand According to the statistics of the feed industry association of the Ministry of agriculture, the output of compound feed in 2000 has reached 80 million tons According to the minimum 20% of soybean meal content, the demand of soybean meal land is at least 16 million tons, which is more than 20 million tons The total amount of domestic soybeans, excluding food, farmers' retention and loss, can be used as feed soybeans up to 10 million tons, the gap between supply and demand is obvious It is understood that the United States has a large processing plant handling more than 1000 tons per day, a circulation operation system represented by futures trade, developed genetically modified scientific research and other complete systems With the coordination of the American Soybean Association, American soybeans enter China on the basis of "demand", squeezing China's soybean industry Moreover, the oil content of imported soybeans is indeed higher than ours, generally about 1.5% higher At present, soybeans in the United States, Brazil and Argentina account for half of China's soybean use According to Yu Xubo, it is the lack of soybean production and the large gap between supply and demand that lead to the rapid increase of soybean imports This growth is based on the improvement of living standards of domestic residents and the demand for edible oil and soybean meal of downstream products The basic reason for China's transformation from a pure soybean exporter to a large number of soybean importers lies in the formation of demand gap, and foreign soybeans also enter by "demand" Will China import more soybeans in the future? According to expert analysis, China's soybean import has increased sharply in the past two to three years On the one hand, it has raised or stabilized the soybean price in the world market, on the other hand, it has also reduced the domestic soybean price level by more than 15% It can be said that the domestic and foreign markets are basically in line with the price In the next few years, there is not much room for a substantial increase in imports In the future, soybean import will largely depend on the policies and measures issued by the state Experts point out that it is difficult to take the road of protection in the future Lack of Competitiveness: experts at the seven inch position of domestic soybean pain believe that the main factors for China's soybean lack of market competitiveness are three: high production cost, poor quality and high transaction cost in the domestic market Production cost is the primary reason According to statistics, the total production cost of domestic soybeans is currently 1500-1700 yuan / ton, while that of major exporting countries such as the United States is 1400-1500 yuan / ton (calculated at the current official exchange rate), with a difference of 20% - 30% If the non comparable cost factors (such as land rent) are removed, the difference is as high as 40% Huang Jikun pointed out that the high production cost is reflected in the low per unit yield of soybean in China, the high tax burden and other costs of domestic soybean, and the small scale of domestic soybean production In 2000, the average yield of soybeans in China was 1656 kg / ha, and that in the United States was 2561 kg / ha The yield of soybeans in the United States was 55% higher than that in China In addition, after deducting labor cost, material input cost and land rent, the surplus of soybean production cost in the United States is tax, accounting for about 5% of the total cost, while the total agricultural tax burden and expenditure out of cost of domestic soybean production cost after deducting the above related expenses account for 15% of the total cost.