Can domestic corn prices rise again

Introduction: in the near future, the price of corn in China is lower again The average price of vehicle plate in Jilin Province is 1060 yuan / ton, a decrease of nearly 6% compared with the previous period The closing price of Dalian port is 1160-1180 yuan / ton, a decrease of 20-50 yuan / ton compared with the previous period The price of Fuzhou area is also reduced to 1270 yuan / ton, and the price of corn is lower again after consolidation The author makes an analysis from the following aspects: first, the factors of recent decline: 1) the increase of market supply and the pressure on price Due to the successive harvest in the production area, the pressure on the inventory of the storage and collection enterprises is very heavy Although most of Northeast China has suffered from severe drought since last year, the output has been affected, and the inventory pressure has been relieved, but it is still at a high level Therefore, in the early stage, in order to further alleviate the inventory pressure, accelerate the sales of old grains, and make room for new grains, all regions have increased efforts to increase sales subsidies, and largely to the market Selling old grain, the quantity of market supply increased sharply, and the price of old grain was lower, which also became the key factor of domestic price decline 2) the purchase direction of feed raw materials has changed, so the demand is reduced Due to the high price of corn, corn feed processing enterprises in South China have changed their purchasing direction to purchase wheat and rice with relatively low price, which reduces the demand for corn At the same time, grain enterprises continue to suppress the price, which affects the price of corn with good trend 3) the psychological expectation of production reduction decreased, and the price lost its rising power At the beginning of spring, the production area once again suffered from drought, which aggravated the psychological expectation of production reduction and supported the firmness of the price But in June, with the advent of the rainy season, the drought has been alleviated obviously According to the prediction data of the National Information Center, the corn output this year is expected to increase compared with last year, the psychological expectation will be affected, and the support for the price will also lose momentum 4) the mentality of reluctant to sell was greatly weakened Due to the influence of various factors, the factors that promote the price of corn to strengthen have weakened in varying degrees, and the driving force is not strong, leading to the prices of all parts of the country falling down one after another At present, the time for the new grain to be listed is not long, the psychology of holding tight to the grain source in the early stage is no longer strong, and the receiving and storage enterprises have released goods one after another According to the statistics of Jilin three-level grain information network, the daily turnover of corn is increasing, Up to 40000 tons / day, this psychological change has increased the market supply, and the price has also dropped with the weakening of reluctant to sell 2 Factors affecting prices in the medium term: 1) the export situation has improved again, and the role of raising prices has increased slightly In recent years, China's corn export volume has increased According to the latest statistics of the customs, China's corn export volume in July was 510000 tons, with a cumulative export of 3.64 million tons, a 32.8% decrease over the same period last year. In the early stage, due to the sharp rise in the price of domestic corn, the price of domestic corn lost its competitiveness in the international market In June, the export volume of China's corn was only 120000 tons, the lowest point in 18 months The sharp decrease in the export volume greatly reduced the strong supporting role of domestic corn price In July, China's corn producing areas increased the sales of aged grains, increased the subsidy policy for ex warehouse, stimulated the enterprises to leave the warehouse, and the drought was effectively alleviated The price of domestic corn fell, once again restoring the competitiveness of domestic corn in the international market According to the relevant information, the FOB price of China's fourth corn export bidding was 105 US dollars / ton Although the price is higher than the bidding price of $102 / T in May, the price of Zhengyi international corn market is not dominant during the period of low price Meanwhile, the price of Chicago corn rebounds, while the price of South Korea's CNF of American corn is $118 / T, while that of China's corn will be around $110 / T the price advantage will increase the share of China's export volume in the global total export volume, and the quantity will increase greatly, It is expected that the number of bids will reach another high (3.5 million tons) since last year, which will also play a strong supporting role in the later corn price trend, and the price raising factor will appear again 2) the demand is expected to show restorative growth Due to the recent decline of corn price, the price advantage of wheat and rice as raw materials for feed procurement will be reduced Judging from the current price trend of these two varieties, they are steadily rising Therefore, grain consuming enterprises are expected to change their purchasing direction and continue to purchase corn If this situation occurs, the price of corn will be pushed upward 3) Chicago futures market is disadvantageous to China's corn price Corn prices in the early futures market rose sharply, reaching a high of $88.48/ton in September, and then fell again On September 17, the contract fell to $84.94/ton The news of China's corn export bidding was adverse to the futures market again, which will promote the period price to fall On September 20, corn futures closed down 2 cents to 3.25 cents, Corn futures closed 3.25 cents lower at $2.25 a bushel in December The low-key behavior of the futures market has a negative effect on the spot market, which will affect the domestic corn price 3 Long term influencing factors: the listing of new grain will become a major factor affecting the price trend of corn in the long term As the forecast data of all parties have great expectations for the increase of corn output this autumn, the listing of new grain will increase the supply of the market and the price will be affected Combined with the above factors, the downward trend of corn will be controlled in the near future, with the possibility of a small increase However, as the listing of autumn grain is approaching, the possibility of a large increase in the price is very small Whether the price of new grain will rise instead of falling last year after listing depends on the spot market, weather, export situation of domestic corn market and the price of international corn market.