Can domestic corn price reach a new high (2)

Introduction: the factors that restrain the price rise are as follows: first, the corn market is in the situation of supply exceeding demand, and the corn inventory in the northeast region is huge In 2001, the total output of four provinces and regions in Northeast China was about 37.28 million tons, an increase of about 7.64 million tons over the previous year As of March, the grain Department of Jilin Province has put more than 14.5 million tons of corn into storage, so it is difficult to relieve the inventory pressure Corn demand in the market is low From the current situation, this year's corn feed consumption in China will be lower than last year, which significantly affects the demand for corn This year, the selling strength of old wheat in the production area is very strong, and the supply of low-cost feed wheat in the market has increased significantly, replacing part of corn as energy raw material Second, the number of Chen grain auctions was more than that of the first half of the year, and a considerable number of Chen corn was sold in the Northeast production area In February, Heilongjiang and Dalian sold 1.84 million tons of old corn; in April, Heilongjiang and Dalian bid for 680000 tons of old corn; in May, Dalian and Changchun sold about 1.65 million tons of old corn In addition, in the middle of March, 34000 tons of national corn reserves were auctioned in Shanghai, the East China market area In the middle of July, Jilin Changchun auctioned another 1.5 million tons of corn A large number of old corn into the market makes the market which appears to be oversupplied need to bear more pressure In addition, the demand in the sales area is also low, so the market pressure is increased invisibly The influence of uncertain factors on the market price is as follows: first, the changeable weather conditions will have an impact on the yield In the first ten days of July, the corn production areas in the south of Northeast China and the middle and Western China have high temperature and little rain, the soil moisture loss is rapid, and drought occurs in some areas In the middle of July, there was precipitation in the southern and Eastern corn producing areas of Northeast China, with an average ten day precipitation of 25-50 mm The precipitation in the central and western corn producing areas was still relatively small, which had a negative impact on corn production In recent years, the temperature in most parts of Northeast China has been on the high side Second, the number of rotation of aged grain is unknown After the rotation of the previous round of aged grain, the next round of auction may be brewing Then the auction quantity of stale grain will directly affect the trend of corn price in the later market But from my personal point of view, even if there is a large number of old grain auctions, the market price is not likely to fall sharply, because the market has been foreshadowed in the early stage, and the bearing capacity is also enhanced, so the price will not be greatly affected by this aspect 3 After China's entry into WTO, China has not become a net importer of corn as expected, but has a greater advantage in the export of corn And so far, there is not a large number of imported corn, but this does not mean that the import of corn stops In half a year, there may be foreign corn pouring into our market, so this change will also affect the price change of domestic corn market To sum up, the author thinks that in the third quarter, corn prices in China will continue to rise seasonally, and there is no room for a sharp rise in corn prices The maximum recovery rate of corn prices in the production area is likely to be around 100-120 yuan / ton, and the duration of the rising market may last until August If there are water or quality problems when new corn is listed in the North China Huanghuai region in the later period, the rising market may continue In September, after entering the fourth quarter, due to the gradual listing of corn in the Huang Huai Region of North China, China's corn market will fall seasonally.