Can domestic corn price reach a new high (1)

Introduction: in June and July, the domestic corn price has basically come out of the previous low, and the price has been basically stable callback However, the upward impact of market price is relatively small, which is in sharp contrast to the rapid rise of corn market price in the same period of last year At present, the market generally pays more attention to the later trend of corn price As we all know, the change of market price is affected by many factors, and we can make further judgment on the trend of the later period only when we have a certain understanding of all factors The factors influencing the price rise are as follows: 1 The export situation is clear According to the statistics provided by the General Administration of customs, China's corn exports totaled 3.48789 million tons from January to June this year, and 4.95 million tons in 2001 / 02 Among them, 2.1 million tons of corn were exported in the first quarter, 860000 tons in April, 270000 tons in May and 25789 tons in June Due to the price advantage of China's corn in the international market, the overall export situation of corn this year is better, and the export volume is increased However, due to the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in South Korea, the main exporter of our country, which led to the stagnation of corn procurement bidding and shipment in South Korea, China's corn export in May decreased compared with last month It is understood that a new round of foot-and-mouth disease broke out in South Korea recently, which is expected to have a short-term impact on China's corn export But in the long run, China's corn export situation this year is good According to the latest estimates of relevant departments, China's corn export this year will exceed 6 million tons last year, reaching 8 million tons The increase of corn export plays a better supporting role in the rise of corn market price 2 The auction price of grain for aging in the early stage is generally high, which is close to the market price Take Jilin Province as an example In May, although there were a large number of old corn auctions in Jilin Province, the transaction price was higher than the market expected, and the highest price was more than 1000 yuan / ton This transaction price is significantly higher than people's expectation, thus weakening the impact on the spot corn market in price In other areas, the auction price of grain is also good, which is close to the market price At the same time, due to the influx of a large number of aged grains, the market's bearing capacity for aged corn has also increased, so it not only has no negative impact on the price of corn market, but also plays a role in promoting the price rise 3 The price of corn futures in Chicago has been rising continuously since the late June, which has driven the export price of corn spot to continue to rise At the beginning of ten days, the FOB price of corn export in the United States was about 102-103 US dollars / ton, while the FOB price did not significantly reduce the futures basis, and the FOB price kept the basis of July contract at 21-22 US cents / bushel At the end of ten days, the FOB price of Meiwan port (shipment date in July) is about 98-99 US dollars / ton, which is equivalent to the reference price of China port of 1200-1220 yuan / ton, which is about 20 yuan / ton lower than that in late June In addition to the rise of futures prices, the depreciation of the US dollar and the reduction of ocean freight have maintained the competitiveness of US corn export, and the hoarding of corn stocks by US farmers has also contributed to the rise of corn export quotations With the recent hot and dry weather in the corn belt in the United States, corn futures prices in Chicago continued to rise A few days ago, the USDA's supply and demand balance report said that in 2002 / 03, the US corn production will reach 248.68 million tons, 3.68 million tons higher than the expected figure in June, 6.99 million tons higher than that in 2001 / 02, with an increase of about 2.89%.