Can Chinese shrimp continue to grow at a high speed?

Introduction: OA show ('918 '); can Chinese shrimp feed continue to grow at a high speed? Can, or can't, what will be the focus of shrimp enterprises next? The answer to this question, to a large extent, requires us to re-examine whether the factors supporting the rapid growth of Chinese shrimp in the past can be sustained in combination with the current and future new environment of Chinese shrimp industry SIF in 2012, the sales volume of shrimp stock in China was about 1.6 million tons, up from 1.51 million tons in 2011, but the year-on-year growth rate dropped to about 6% Guangdong accounts for nearly half of the 1.6 million tons of shrimp, about 780000 tons From the overall situation of last year, in the first half of the year, shrimp production enterprises generally took the sales volume as the indicator, and used various marketing means to seize the market In addition, the weather was relatively stable, the disease of Penaeus vannamei was less, the success rate of the first shrimp production was high, and the sales volume of shrimp materials rose rapidly However, in the second half of the year, affected by rising raw materials, low shrimp prices and low success rate of aquaculture, the aquaculture situation in western Guangdong, Pearl River Delta, Guangxi and Hainan is very poor The aquaculture situation in the Yangtze River Delta is good, and the sales volume of shrimp materials has increased significantly, but it is far from offsetting the shrinking demand of shrimp materials in the South China market In the face of this situation, shrimp enterprises quickly adjust their strategies and turn to profit as an indicator Even so, there are still some difficulties in collecting funds at the end of the year In the whole year, the profit of shrimp enterprises has declined significantly It is said that the average gross profit per ton of shrimp materials is less than 500 yuan / ton Bad debts and bad debts are deducted There is no lack of loss in some large group enterprises Last year, farmers lost as much as 60%, and dealers lost the most, reaching 80% Since 2009, the quality of prawn seedlings has been unstable and the germplasm resources have been seriously degraded The industrial development of prawn culture has led to more and more serious water pollution Under this dual influence, shrimp disease is more and more difficult to control, shrimp is more and more difficult to raise, and the growth rate of shrimp material is also more and more slow The rapid rise in the price of fish meal based raw materials has made the whole prawn feed industry worse The rapid growth of prawn industry in China, which has lasted for ten years, is coming to an end In the past decade, the driving factors for the rapid growth of Chinese prawn industry are: the strong growth of the world economy (especially China) before 2008; becoming a member of the WTO; considerable benefits of prawn culture; technological progress of prawn culture But now we have to say that the pull effect of these factors is weakening First of all, affected by the international financial crisis and European debt crisis, it will take time for the global economy to recover The trade protection policies implemented by the developed countries headed by the United States have put great pressure on the export of Chinese prawn; the rapid development of prawn breeding in Southeast Asia in recent years has also made the export of Chinese prawn more and more vulnerable At the same time, the development of domestic market, which is expected by Chinese prawn industry, is slower than expected In addition, shrimp culture has been in a "sub-health" state, existing problems are increasingly prominent   These four driving factors actually support the rapid growth of shrimp feed in China, which is also the most dangerous game for shrimp feed industry: once the irrational shrimp breeding development mode continues, the supply of shrimp is likely to cause the collapse of shrimp price, or the unexpected major disease makes the whole shrimp industry bogged down Under the credit sales mode, this is the most dangerous game for shrimp feed industry It will cause fatal pressure on the operation system of shrimp enterprises; if the investment of resources is reduced in order to reduce the operation risk, the hard-working enterprise brand may encounter "Waterloo" If shrimp farming industry changes from high-speed development to medium speed development, or even reduces, what kind of path should shrimp enterprises look for after entering the red sea? From the perspective of economics, the growth path of an economy is generally considered to be from factor driven to efficiency driven, from efficiency driven to innovation driven For an economy like China's shrimp industry, it was originally driven by factors, relying on cheap labor and relying on the sky to eat With the over exploitation of natural resources, the deterioration of ecological environment and the rising cost of labor and resources, the "factor driven" model of prawn industry in China is difficult to continue In the future, through management improvement, technology improvement and production efficiency improvement, it is a general trend to promote the transformation of the development mode of prawn industry from "factor driven" to "efficiency driven" The prawn industry still has many ways to buffer various pressures, that is to say, this transition from high-speed growth to medium speed growth is gradual and unlikely to happen suddenly Unless there is a large-scale epidemic or a serious quality and safety accident of prawn products With the foreseeable increase of labor cost, raw material cost and decrease of capital investment in the future, the future development of prawn industry in China mainly depends on the efficient cooperation and integration of seedling, feed, breeding, processing, export and domestic sales In the past, the Chinese government has not listed shrimp farming as a key development and support object The rapid development of shrimp farming in recent years mainly depends on the interest transmission within the industry, which mainly relies on the fund support of feed factory as the main body For this reason, shrimp enterprises are prescient in the transformation of shrimp industry In recent years, Hengxing, Haida, Yuehai and Tongwei have successively appeared in the industry media frequently to promote new models, new ideas and new strategies from the past "just do not say, get rich" We can see some clues from the transformation of these giants The "community of interests", "comprehensive service" and "integration of manufacturers" proposed by Hengxing, Haida and Yuehai seek to control the industry At the end of the day, farmers need profits The high-end aquaculture industry has its unique needs For example, how to help shrimp culture succeed is an urgent problem, and the sales channels will also greatly affect the interests of farmers and so on In this case, the final competition in shrimp market is the competition of professional technology and service ability Under the competitive efficiency, shrimp enterprises need to optimize the combination in a wider range In the middle, there is a core of command, which is to make an article around the benefits of farmers The so-called scale and differentiation are only path choice, the so-called innovation and technological progress are only capacity construction Hengxing, Haida and Yuehai have prepared for a rainy day, trying to provide a complete set of system services for farmers, including seedling, feed, medicine and biological products, breeding mode, technical services, information services, aquatic product sales services, etc However, in the process of trying to extend the industry chain, if the operation is not based on professional ability, there will be certain risks (for example, if there is a problem with the seedling, it will affect the shrimp sales) Therefore, if this strategy is to be truly implemented, the organization ability and efficiency of shrimp enterprises are very high while the specialization ability is strong enough It not only requires the unity of team objectives, high comprehensive quality and strong execution, but also requires the effective connection between the service consciousness of dealers and enterprises (value chain value maximization) This is a lesson that shrimp enterprises need to make up as soon as possible after experiencing rapid development It can be predicted that in the past three years, the frequent fights among Hengxing, Haida, Yuehai and Tongwei in the shrimp market are just the prelude, and the real "competition" has just begun Next, the development of prawn culture industry depends more on the improvement of germplasm resources, the evolution and upgrading of culture mode, and the improvement of culture technology to improve the success rate of culture Accordingly, in the case of small growth of prawn feed sales, the four giants will still be in the leading position, and there will be a relationship between them Small and medium-sized shrimp enterprises will be forced to turn to mixed breeding materials, low-grade fresh water fish materials, special aquatic materials, etc., or be merged, or withdraw sadly Overall, the sales volume of the four giants and the second camp will gradually expand This shrimp feed pattern will not change much in the next three years.