Business agency: the commodity market is not optimistic in the second half of the year

Recently, at the "2015 semi annual commodity market Summit Forum and press conference" held in Shanghai, Liu Xintian, chief analyst of China commodity data provider business agency, said that the market was not optimistic in the second half of 2015, and China's commodity price index may close at about 740 points at the end of the year China's commodity supply and demand index (BCI) released by business club in June was - 0.45, with an average increase of - 1.59%, reflecting the contraction of manufacturing economy compared with last month and the risk of economic downturn; the average value of the first six months was - 0.17, with an average increase of - 0.24%, while China's commodity price index (BPI) was 761 points According to Liu Xintian, the BCI objectively reflects the real situation of China's economy in the first half of 2015, that is, the commodity market and manufacturing economy have gone out of a single downward trend Since February, BCI has received three positive links in succession, which confirms that the commodity market and related manufacturing industry economy are not going down, but out of the "Yangchun market", and the securities market is accordingly Although BCI received Yin again in May and June However, it is worth noting that the continuous collection of three male wires is rare in recent years, which means that the downshift and deceleration of China's economy is not blindly shrinking and declining, but orderly, controllable and accompanied by opportunities Liu Xintian predicted that the situation in the second half of the year is not optimistic The downward pressure on the economy and the imbalance between supply and demand will force commodities to continue to "bubble out" The "golden nine silver ten" will bring short-term positive effects, but the overall downward trend of the economy and the market will not change In the second half of the year, the BCI mean and the rise and fall will be significantly worse than the first half of the year Liu Xintian said that judging from the trend of commodity price index BPI, although the overall amplitude in the first half of the year was not large After the great fall in the second half of 2014, the market in the first half of this year showed a more obvious upward desire and a more brilliant performance, but the "general trend" of the decline remained unchanged It is expected that the "gas market" of the commodity market will be slightly changed in the second half of this year, and the market will be weakened or weakened In the second place, China's economic slowdown will bring the global market demand to the global market, and the "bull" of the economy and the market will weaken Finally, the process of defoaming will not stagnate because of the drop in crude oil and iron ore Stone as the representative of the "virtual high" commodities that affect the industrial value chain is bound to return to value, and the price of cabbage will be more and more It is reported that BCI index has successfully predicted the macroeconomic trend for five consecutive times since it was first released in January 2012 " (our reporter Yu Xinjiang)