Bulk herbicides fall into the market "quagmire"

At present, China's northern technical medicine market is gradually entering the off-season, and the phenomenon of market dumping is still serious, but there are not many replenishment orders, the price of technical medicines continues to hit new lows, and the market decline is accelerating
.
The season for herbicide products for seasonal products ended, and the technical glufosinate ammonium fell directly to 119,000 yuan/ton, which added to the wait-and-see sentiment of the market; in 2016, about halfway through, the mainstream herbicide market has fallen into a “quagmire”
.
In the past 18 months: glyphosate-historically low, paraquat-waiting to abdicate, glufosinate has dropped to one-third of its high
.
In terms of price, glyphosate, as a weathervane herbicide product, has a cumulative decline of 19%, which is at a historical low since 2008, and it is unlikely to get better in the short term; paraquat, according to the "Announcement No.
1745" issued in 2012 , Will officially withdraw from the Chinese domestic market from July 1, 2016.
The pyridine-paraquat industry chain is affected by it, and the price has fallen step by step, with a cumulative decline of 47%; glufosinate-ammonium, once a star product in the market, is expanding Under the pressure of “production”, prices have fallen deeply, with a cumulative decline of 65% from last year’s price peak
.
? The glyphosate market is caught in a contradiction between "high-load start" and "sparse orders"
.
? The increase in operating rate and the off-season of market sales do not rule out the possibility that prices will continue to fall
.
As of press time on June 20, the mainstream quotation of glyphosate in China was 17,500 to 18,000 yuan/ton, the mainstream transaction was lowered to 17,100 yuan/ton, and the port FOB price was 2,600 to 2,650 US dollars/ton
.
The 200-liter 41% glyphosate isopropylamine saline agent is quoted at 9500-9800 yuan/liter, the actual transaction is 9100-9200 yuan/kilter, the port FOB is 1,300-1350 US dollars/kilter; 200-liter 62% glyphosate The sales volume of water agent is 11,000 yuan/ton, and the FOB of the port is 1550~1,600 US dollars/ton
.
The mainstream price of 75.
7% granules for 25 kilograms is 16500~17000 yuan/ton
.
Approaching the end of the month, judging from the start of the factory, June output is expected to create a new high in the first half of 2016
.
In terms of order status, orders were scarce in July
.
Analyzing the reasons why suppliers are starting to work at full capacity, the author believes that based on the following two aspects: First, as a listed company with glyphosate as its main business, it is almost impossible to reverse the loss in the second quarter.
In the second quarter, the financial statements for the third quarter have made a good start; secondly, in terms of the current raw material prices, they are still at a low point in the market, and the cost of raw materials is relatively low
.
However, considering that July is still in the off-season for market sales, the possibility of continued lower prices cannot be ruled out
.
? Atrazine market steadily responded to the off-season
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The mainstream price of 95% raw flour market is 18,000~19,000 yuan/ton
.
The actual transaction amounted to 17,000~19,000 yuan/ton
.
Judging from the current market, in the off-season, trading is weak
.
On the one hand, there is no demand support from the demand market; on the other hand, the factory maintains some old customer orders, and individual factories have maintenance plans at the end of the month
.
Market outlook analysis: weak supply and demand, price stability in the short term, and limited room for adjustment
.
The market supply declined in the later period, with a view to reducing production and insuring the price
.
? The price cuts in the glufosinate-ammonium market have had little effect
.
The delivery price of 95% glufosinate-ammonium raw powder in Shanghai port reached 119,000 yuan/ton
.
Although news of price cuts came out of the market just after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, it provided limited stimulus to market trading, and price cuts had little effect
.
On the one hand, demand is off-season and prices are falling, which is more to increase the wait-and-see mentality of the procurement market; on the other hand, the continuous decline in prices has put pressure on some existing suppliers or planned entrants in the market to a certain extent, but for now, " The effect of "cooling down" is not obvious
.
The market is currently in the off-season with limited trading volume and weak trading in the short term
.
? The paraquat market is sluggish, and producers are calmly facing the "limitation"
.
The mainstream price of 220 liters of 42% mother liquor is 10,500 to 12,000 yuan/ton, and the actual delivery is 9800 to 10,000 yuan/ton
.
Low market transactions
.
From the perspective of the domestic market, although paraquat will withdraw from the domestic market on July 1, considering that there are still stocks scattered among end customers in the country, it is still difficult to promote alternatives in the short term
.
? At present, China's agricultural product industry is still relatively sluggish, which severely restricts terminal demand.
At the same time, floods and droughts in the south and the north have also restricted the digestion of dealers' inventory.
The export markets of South America and Southeast Asia have not seen the light, and the herbicide market will continue to "de-capacity" in the future.
With the trend of destocking, seasonal varieties enter the off-season consolidation phase with the end of the production season, and the herbicide market is nearing completion, and some varieties do not have much replenishment demand.
For example, acetochlor technical medicine, manufacturers gradually stop
.
(Beijing Huatong Zongheng Economic Information Consulting Co.
, Ltd.