Break through 3000 yuan / ton, corn after the opening of the price increase of about 15%, feed with the rise

Corn prices have peaked again.
recent period, Heilongjiang, Hebei, Fujian and other places corn prices have been rising continuously, Fujian local corn prices have exceeded 3000 yuan / ton, up to 3050 yuan / ton.
local corn spot price (unit: yuan / ton) as an important feed grain, corn prices also have a series of chain effects.
feed enterprises admitted, "within six months (feed) prices have basically not stopped, recently has risen three or four waves."
", what is causing the recent corn prices continue to rise? What's the price increase? Is the price increase sustainable? In response to this series of questions, the Daily Economic News reporter launched an investigation.
upstream: the main production area in the last 3 months corn price increase of about 20% Heilongjiang Yuhua City Wangkui County, Mr. Blue contracted more than 250 acres of land to grow corn, to the present he has all sold out of corn. Mr.
Told the Daily Economic News that before October 20, 2020, people began to come to the area to collect corn, "at that time is 9 cents per kilogram, and then 1 cent 2 cents has been slowly rising."
province's grain output reached 75.41 million tons in 2020, ranking first in China for 10 consecutive years.
as the main corn producing area, the price of corn in Heilongjiang is very representative.
"I was selling corn water percentage is more, the price is 1 yuan per jin (2000 yuan / ton), has now risen to 1 piece 1.
, it sold early.
" Mr. Blue lamented that the local acquisition had recently been suspended because of the outbreak.
Qiqihar, a farmer also told the Daily Economic News reporter, the local purchase price for farmers is now 1.2 yuan / catty (2400 yuan / ton), the early stage is also from about 9 cents a jin began to slowly rise.
Tang Haibo, deputy director of the Agricultural and Rural Bureau of Qiqihar City, told the Daily Economic News that the average price of corn purchases is about 1.295 yuan (2590 yuan/tonne) per kilogram, while about three months ago, the price per ton of corn was still between 2000 and 2200 yuan, in other words, the increase in just three months reached about 20%, or even close to 30%.
Chen, who is the head of the raw grain acquisition department of a grain-processing listed company, told the Daily Economic News that he is mainly responsible for the acquisition of corn in Heilongjiang, mainly from farmers, followed by national policy corn and traders.
prices have continued to rise since the new 2020 corn market, but the weekly increases vary in size.
even in December, even before the corn sales period, prices did not fall, but flat.
" Chen admitted that, overall, Heilongjiang before New Year's Day rose slightly slower, but also a week rose 30 to 50 yuan / ton of the situation; After New Year's Day rose relatively fast, and now the increase has reached 150 to 200 yuan / ton.
Mr. Chen introduced that the price of new corn purchased by his enterprise from farmers is about 1.1 yuan per kilogram, according to the tide grain to dry grain conversion, equivalent to 1.375 yuan / catty (2750 yuan / ton).
" this cost is very high, we are directly for their own use, if the trader charge plus drying costs, storage costs and so on to sell, the price is higher.
" Harbin local corn price (unit: yuan / ton) he introduced, now Harbin second-class corn mainstream sales price (out of the market price) at about 2820 yuan / ton, third-class corn about 2770 to 2780 yuan / ton.
a Hebei farmer told the Daily Economic News that the current purchase price of corn for grain enterprises in Hebei is 1.4 to 1.5 yuan per kilogram (2800 to 3000 yuan per ton).
a pig farming enterprise in Nanping, Fujian Province, told reporters that the local corn price has risen to 3050 yuan / ton.
midstream: feed prices in the past two months has been "up three or four waves" corn is known as the "king of feed", corn prices, naturally also led to downstream feed with the rise.
Dabei Agricultural Group Tianjin Science and Technology Park (Tianjin Changnon Science and Technology Co., Ltd.) feed annual production capacity of 360,000 tons, the main business for pigs, chickens, fish, shrimp with feed, pigs, chickens, cattle, sheep concentrate feed, cattle, sheep concentrate supplement production, feed sales mainly cover Beijing, Tianjin, Tianjin, Jin and other regions. Wei Fei,
's purchasing director for Greater North China, told the Daily Economic News that since the new corn went on sale in the second half of 2020, the price of bulk raw materials has basically been in an up-and-down process, leading to the entire feed product prices have followed suit.
" to say how many times, from last September is not too good number, these two months there are about three or four waves.
" Wei Fei explained that the bulk of raw materials as a whole is driven by the rise in corn prices.
say they received corn, before and after New Year's Day prices are still around 2700 yuan / ton, has now risen to about 3100 yuan.
this way, energy feeds such as corn by-products and wheat by-products have risen more, and amino acids are deep-processed downstream products of corn, and prices have risen.
the price increase is also soybean meal.
" Wei Fei introduced, feed raw materials are probably divided into energy, protein and some other core additives.
energy category representative is corn, soybean meal (a by-product of soybean oil) is the representative of protein, soybean meal is also from New Year's Day around the rise.
" New Year's Day before the low point in 3000 yuan a little more than 3100 yuan / ton, now 43 soybean meal (according to protein content is divided into 43/46, etc.) factory price in 4150 yuan / ton, up more than 1000.
" Wei Fei said, now there is a shortage of soybean meal, supply channels are so few, we all grab, logistics vehicles to the oil plant side of the queue for a long time, often can not wait out.
Chen's company will also have some corn by-products, need to deal with feed enterprises. When asked if he had recently sent price adjustment letters to feed companies, Mr Chen said,
"Normal conditions change every two Mondays, but when market conditions are adjusted more frequently, it becomes a weekly adjustment."
" raw material prices, feed enterprises can afford it? What's the response? In this regard, Wei Fei said, raw material costs rise, feed must also follow the rise.
most enterprises are now beginning to use wheat and so on as an alternative, but there are still some limitations, is still in the tentative stage.
" because many enterprises in the early stage with corn as a formula, after the change of wheat livestock can adapt, starch feeding nutrition effect in the end how, but also have an experimental process, so can only be gradually increased, it is not possible to replace all wheat at once.
" downstream: the impact of at least 20% increase in feed price increases for aquaculture enterprises is also being transmitted to downstream aquaculture enterprises.
in Wei Fei's view, feed price increases will certainly have an impact on aquaculture enterprises, but the impact of the size depends on how much their gross profit.
" profit high impact is relatively small, low profit impact is large.
" Wei Fei believes that the gross profit of pig farming enterprises is still very high, the overall feed price increase only affected part of the profits of enterprises, not no money to earn.
can also be profits of egg and chicken breeding enterprises, but at present the profits of broiler chicken is not very good, relatively speaking, the impact of feed price increases on such enterprises is greater.
Spring Festival is coming, pork is also ushering in the peak consumption season, feed prices on pig farming enterprises in the end how much impact on the cost?" There will certainly be a big impact.
" Wei Fei said, pig feed is the main two bulk raw materials: one is protein soybean meal, the other is energy corn.
corn than around New Year's Day rose about 400 yuan, less than 20%; Soybean meal than before and after New Year's Day rose more than 1000 yuan, up 34%, calculated, pig feed costs increased by at least 20%.
the aforementioned Fujian Nanping pig farming enterprises are also helpless: "feed has been rising prices, the follow-up may have to rise again."
we can't control the price increase.
" In fact, just three months ago, the local corn prices in Fujian compared with the previous six months also rose 600 yuan / ton, the enterprise has told reporters that, in other terms, the equivalent of corn prices led to a rise in pig feed prices of 360 yuan / ton.
the price of a ton of feed is expected to rise by more than 400 yuan if other raw materials such as soybean meal are added to the price.
feed prices have risen across the board, Mr Wei said there has been no reduction in demand from downstream customers.
In recent years, China's corn planting area (units: thousand hectares) (from the trend, in recent years, China's corn planting area has decreased) traceable: supply gap due to changes in the supply structure of the reasons for the increase in corn prices, Wei Fei believes that, from a macro point of view, the first is the overall corn supply and demand structure has changed, that is, there is still a gap in supply.
Chen manager also agreed, he believes that in previous years, corn oversupply, prices continue to fall, the state in order to protect farmers' income, the introduction of temporary corn storage policy, lasted several years, by 2015, corn stocks close to 125 million tons, large stocks, stopped the acquisition and began to promote destocking.
so in recent years, the corn storage is in the process of decreasing.
" in fact, in recent years the country is committed to the adjustment of the structure, one is to adjust the planting structure, reduce the supply of planting end; First, adjust the industrial structure and improve the production capacity of deep processing.
," Wei Fei said.
Chen also mentioned that the production capacity of grain processing enterprises has increased year by year over the years.
,000 tons of capacity in Heilongjiang has nearly doubled from more than 11 million tons in 2012/2013 to nearly 22 million tons today.
Chen admitted that corn production in 2020 is indeed lower than a year ago, while the demand for capacity of deep processing enterprises remained unchanged, or even a small increase, so that the contradiction between supply and demand is apparent. Mr.
Blue also mentioned that the normal situation per acre of land production is about 1200 jin, but in July-August 2020 more rain, coupled with several typhoon disasters in the latter stages, many corn collapse, resulting in a certain decline in corn production throughout the year.
Chen said that as far as Heilongjiang is concerned, in mid-December 2020, 1.5 million tons of corn were sold, the market snapped up the situation was eased, and at the end of the year banks tightened lending, many grain-receiving enterprises lack of funds, limiting the increase in corn prices.
And into January this year, bank loans issued down, coupled with the Spring Festival approaching, enterprises began to stock up a large number of inventory, in the market reaction is to rise slowly before New Year's Day, after New Year's Day rose fast.
In recent years, China's corn production (units: tons) (from the trend, in recent years, China's corn production has fallen from the high point of view) game: market participation in the square to intensify the market bullish" Northeast side of the general month between 23rd to the 15th of the month farmers Is not selling grain, but deep processing enterprises during the Spring Festival will not stop work, corn has been consumed, enterprises worry about insufficient inventory to snap up, traders look deep processing enterprises anxious to use grain, but also in the rush, the two sides continue to game, (corn) prices up.
," Chen said.
Not only that, before every year from May to September market demand is a lot of policy corn to make up, but now the country's near-storage corn, in 2021, enterprises have to face the market to purchase, traders also see that there may be this gap, but also bet on the market bullish trend.
Zhao Wei, an analyst at Agricultural Trust, told the Daily Economic News that downstream traders and grain-using enterprises are worried about the shortage of corn supply after the Spring Festival, and increase corn purchases ahead of time, which is also a major reason for the increase in corn prices.
" soybean meal prices, in addition to the same strong demand with corn, the main reason is because of the sharp rise in foreign soybeans, driving domestic soybean meal continued to rise in price.
, the impact of the new crown outbreak, leading to downstream enterprises generally in advance of the start of raw materials stocking.
," Zhao said.
" is really a multi-factor overlay.
" Wei Fei said, on the one hand, it is indeed the impact of the epidemic superimposed Spring Festival factors, resulting in the entire feed processing industry chain (farms, feed factories, traders) all parties are centralized stock; On the other hand, the more important factor is that the structure of supply and demand has changed, coupled with traders hoarding, otherwise it will not rise so fast.
For the post-market trend, Wei Fei believes that, because of the recent rush more goods, resulting in a larger increase in the price of soybean meal, the latter processing enterprises to prepare sufficient goods to start centralized production, soybean meal prices may fall; But such as corn and other bulk raw materials, if the overall supply and demand there is still a gap, although later will also decline, but the downfall may not be large.
Chen also believes that the corn market should be a gradual stabilization of the market, supported by the cost of grain collection and storage costs.