Brazil will not abandon the Chinese market due to GM regulations

Introduction: key points: Brazilian exporters continue to compete for the Chinese market; a large number of non GM soybeans will meet the import requirements of China; China's GM regulations urge Brazil to explicitly separate GM soybeans from non GM soybeans Sao Paulo, January 25: according to local traders and analysts disclosed to odj, Brazil will continue to maintain the rapid growth momentum of soybean exports to China Although China's upcoming regulations on genetically modified products require all imported soybeans to provide certificates to prove that they do not contain transgene ingredients, Brazil may encounter difficulties in providing certificates Market analysts in the United States believe that Brazil, the world's second largest soybean producer, will lose the lucrative Chinese market to the United States Because Brazil will not be able to provide export product safety certificates like the United States under China's upcoming GM product safety regulations But local analysts in Brazil believe that although Brazil's soybean export to China will be hit in the short term due to the uncertainty of Chinese laws and regulations, the problem of safety certificate is not insurmountable, and more non GMO soybeans in Brazil will compete with it Steve Cacia, an analyst at cerealpar brokerage in southern Brazil, said the problem was not as serious as people said In 2001, in a very short time, we took out the export certificate of corn In 2001 / 02, Brazil is expected to export 6.2 million tons of corn Before that, Brazil was a net importer of corn for many years In 2001, Brazil exported 3.17 million tons of soybeans to China, an increase of 78% over the previous year It is expected that exports will increase further this year Analysts admit that it is not easy to provide safety certificates for all oilseeds, but Brazil has some other advantages American analysts believe that local soybean growers in Brazil will find it difficult to separate genetically modified and non genetically modified soybeans, which account for 20% of Brazil's soybeans These genetically modified soybeans are smuggled from Argentina, known locally as Maradona soybeans, to commemorate the Argentine football myth Diego Maradona The illegal soybean shipments are mainly concentrated in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southernmost region, where genetically modified soybeans account for 50% of the soybean area However, the proportion of transgenic varieties in the main soybean producing areas in the Midwest is still very small Anderson Galvao Gomes, a soybean analyst at mprado consulting in Brazil, said that the export of soybeans north of Santos port can guarantee that there is no genetically modified soybeans Brazil also expects to increase Brazil's soybean imports as Argentina's soybeans fail to meet China's requirements for imported soybeans A trader of a New York based multinational trading company said that 90% to 100% of Argentine soybeans are genetically modified soybeans How can we meet the requirements of China's new regulations and maintain exports to China? It is also normal for China to switch to importing Brazilian soybeans in the second half of the year In 2001 / 02, Brazil will export 8.2 million tons of soybeans and is expected to export about 5 million tons to China The unconfirmed rumour this week sparked a heated debate in Brazil that China has cancelled four previously purchased Brazilian soybeans for fear that they may not meet the requirements of the new regulations, which began on March 20 Chinese importers are scrambling to import as many soybeans as possible before the regulations come into effect, as they are still confused about the specific requirements for safety certificates Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach a record high in 2001 / 02, but it cannot be sold without soybeans when the harvest season is coming Gomes said this may be the beginning of a series of resales that Chinese importers are about to make, but it is only a short-term action The ambiguous rules of GM regulations make many importers and exporters think that the regulations will not be strictly enforced David brew of brasolja, a brokerage in southern Brazil, said the rules were clearly intended to protect China's domestic soybean industry But at present, China needs to import soybeans, and it's not surprising to turn a blind eye to GM soybeans At the same time, China's barriers to genetically modified soybeans will change Brazil's controversy about genetically modified soybeans, and Brazil's non genetically modified soybean prices will rise accordingly Since the price of non GM soybeans is no higher than that of GM soybeans, Brazilian government officials support the lifting of the ban on the cultivation of GM products in Brazil The U.S Department of agriculture forecasts soybean production in Brazil to be 42.5 million tons this year, up 10% from the previous year Market annual soybean exports from February to January are now forecast to increase by 13% to a record 17.6 million tons.