Brazil soybean market situation and Prospect

Introduction: according to a report released on Thursday by the Counselor's office of the United States Department of agriculture on March 11, Brazil's soybean production will reach a record high of 42.5 million tons in 2002 In the new farming year, 2001 / 02 and 2002 / 03 market year, oil seed production, including soybean and cottonseed, is expected to reach a record 43.6 million tons The reason for the increase in output over the previous year lies in the increase in soybean planting area, proper farmland management and favorable weather The reason for the expansion of soybean planting area in the new agricultural year is that the domestic soybean price in Brazil is more attractive than other alternative crops in the planned planting period Although the weather in Rio Grande and Mato Grosso had a negative impact on the per unit yield, the prospects for soybean harvest in 2002 were still very good The rainy weather in Mato Grosso, the main cotton producing area, is expected to reduce the average per unit yield of cotton In 2002 / 03, the oilseed crop will be sown by the end of 2002 The output is expected to be 43.2 million tons The soybean area will be increased, the unit yield will be slightly reduced, and the cotton sown area will be increased, so the cotton output will be increased The trend of soybean area expansion is expected to continue, especially in Mato Grosso This is because the domestic soybean price level is reasonable, the financial situation of farmers is good, and new technology continues to be applied, which is conducive to the continued expansion of soybean area The outlook for soybean production is promising, due to the trend of increasing average yield per unit, because the level of soybean yield per unit in the new agricultural development zones in the northern, northeastern and Midwest states of Brazil is relatively high Because Brazil still has vast land resources to be used for large-scale mechanized production, and the weather is generally favorable, together with other favorable factors such as rising international soybean prices, and new investment in Brazil's transportation system, Brazil's soybean planting area will further increase For the future development of Brazil's domestic oilseed production, production financing is still a basic factor The production funds provided by the Brazilian government only play a small role in the oilseed industry, especially in the new agricultural areas Soybean processing plants, exporters and equipment suppliers provide most of the production financing for a large number of farmers The Brazilian government has publicly and strongly opposed the U.S agricultural subsidy plan for domestic soybeans and cotton, claiming that the increase of U.S agricultural aid will cause damage to Brazilian farmers A statement by Brazilian government officials indicated that Brazil intended to seek a WTO solution and obtain broad support at home, including from producers and industries There is no change in the fundamentals of soybean pressing in China Domestic tax policies still favor the export of soybeans, rather than the export of soybean meal and oil The policy is not expected to change in the foreseeable future Soybean meal demand has become the main driving force for the processing industry, while soybean oil has only become a by-product The demand for soybean meal in the international market obviously stimulates Brazilian soybean meal export sales Domestic soybean oil consumption is expected to keep pace with population growth due to Brazil's habit of cooking and frying food with soybean oil The issue of transgenes remains deadlocked in court Although Brazil's exporters sell Brazil's soybeans as non GM products, it is widely believed that 70% of the soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul may be GM soybeans Current situation and prospect ATO / SP of Sao Paulo, Brazil, estimated that Brazil's oil seed production in 2001 / 02 agricultural year or 2002 / 03 market year was a record 43.6 million tons, including soybean and cottonseed This yield is 8% higher than the previous year, thanks to the increase of soybean planting area, proper field management and suitable climate This report focuses on the main oilseed crops, but Brazil also produces a small amount of sunflower seeds, rapeseed and palm oil Although Brazil's corn production is huge, it is rarely used to produce vegetable oil As the main oilseed crop, soybean production accounts for more than 97% of the total oilseed production mentioned in this report The rest is cottonseed production The reason why the planting area of new beans is higher than last year is that the soybean price is optimistic at the time of planting, which is due to the increase of Chicago soybean price in early 2001 and the further weakening of real exchange rate In addition, international fertilizer prices fell during the seeding period Although soybean prices subsequently fell, farmers were in good financial condition, using the opportunity of earlier price strength to sell most crops in advance, so as to make profits, and using additional resources to further expand the planting area At the same time, due to the low price of cotton and corn, farmers also increased the soybean planting area Although the weather in Rio Grande and Mato Grosso has a negative impact on the per unit yield, the soybean yield in 2002 is still very good For the year, Parana and the rest of the world are growing well Overall, technical sources from local cooperatives and supply companies believe that the current level of investment is still at a very acceptable level Because of the increasing use of short season soybean varieties and the increasing supply of new soybean at the beginning of the year, many areas can plant two season soybean Therefore, this year's output is expected to be very good, and the output of the whole year is expected to have a good harvest Due to the rainy weather in Mato Grosso, the main cotton producing area, it is expected to reduce the average per unit yield of new cotton The crops of 2002 / 03 agricultural year or 2003 / 04 market year are expected to be sown by the end of 2002, with the output reaching 43.2 million tons The reason is that the soybean area is increased, but the unit yield is slightly reduced, while the cotton production is increased due to the increase of sown area Soybean planting area is expected to continue to increase, especially in Mato Grosso This is because the domestic soybean price level is reasonable, farmers' financial situation is good, and new technologies continue to be applied, which is conducive to the continued expansion of soybean area Cotton acreage is expected to rebound from this year as the industry expects local cotton prices to rebound The impact of corn acreage will depend on corn prices later in the market year and will have an impact on soybean planting intentions ATO / SP estimated that the oil seed production in 2000 / 01 was slightly reduced due to the correction of cottonseed production The agricultural counsellor kept the prediction of soybean yield unchanged Local people said that the squeezing of new beans harvested in the early part of 2001 / 02 oil pressing year may be increased Considering this situation, the end of 2001 / 02 inventory is expected to be reduced, far below the normal level The outlook for soybean production is promising, due to the trend of increasing average yield per unit, because the level of soybean yield per unit in the new agricultural development zones in the northern, northeastern and Midwest states of Brazil is relatively high Because Brazil still has vast land resources to be used for large-scale mechanized production, and the weather is generally favorable, together with other favorable factors such as rising international soybean prices, and new investment in Brazil's transportation system, Brazil's soybean planting area will further increase However, there are still problems such as long transportation distance and lack of infrastructure For the future development of Brazil's domestic oilseed production, production financing is still a basic factor The production funds provided by the Brazilian government play a negligible role only in the oilseed industry, especially in the new high-yield agricultural areas Here, the farms are too large to receive sufficient support from the government Soybean processing plants, exporters and equipment suppliers provide most of the production financing for a large number of farmers As far as soybeans are concerned, export corridor is still a hot topic The Brazilian government has publicly and strongly opposed the U.S agricultural subsidy plan for domestic soybeans and cotton, claiming that the increase of U.S agricultural assistance has caused damage to Brazilian farmers A statement by Brazilian government officials said Brazil intended to seek a WTO solution, and the government's position appears to have broad support at home, including producers and industries There is no change in the fundamentals of soybean pressing in China Domestic tax policy is still conducive to the export of soybeans, but not to the export of soybean meal and oil after domestic crushing The policy is not expected to change in the foreseeable future Since 1996, the data show the influence of tax policy on the export of soybean products Soybean oil and meal production will follow the squeeze Cotton planting area is expected to pick up in the next year after the big reduction of this agricultural year Because the return rate of cotton is lower than that of soybean, it is the main reason for the decrease of cotton planting area Industry insiders expect that the planting area will increase next year, but they do not expect to significantly increase cotton planting, because traditional farmers have started crop rotation to make the land fertile (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: