BPI of the business agency reaches a new low or falls below 700 points

China Securities News (reporter song Weiping) business agency's latest BPI trend chart of bulk commodity price index shows that the trend of bulk commodity in July basically shows a unilateral downward trend As of July 31, 2015, BPI closed at 728 points, down 29 points from 757 points at the beginning of the month, down - 3.62%, a new low in history Liu Xintian, chief editor of the business association, pointed out that the second wave of commodity decline in 2015 (the first wave of decline appeared in January) was surging and strong, and the decline and rate of decline had been quite "considerable" Since mid May, BPI has continued to decline, with a cumulative decline of 59 points, or 7.21% Although this round of decline can not be called Waterfall fall, and can not be compared with the slump in the second half of 2014 (from August to January 2015, BPI fell for six consecutive months, 140 points, with a cumulative decline of more than 15%), compared with the slump in 2013 (from March to July 2013, BPI fell 77 points, with a decline of more than 8%) and the slump in the first half of 2014 (from January to March 2014, BPI fell 43 points, with a decline of nearly 5%) It has not been inferior, which can be called the main wave of decline in 2015 Liu Xintian believes that in July 2015, there are three main forces in the bulk commodity market: first, the power of transmission In July, upstream commodities such as crude oil, power coal, iron ore and copper played a leading role in the decline, while the domino effect and window breaking effect worked together Commodities such as petrochemicals, iron and steel, and nonferrous metals almost "annihilated"; second, the power of structure, under the pressure of imbalance between supply and demand As a result, the "mainland" of high-value commodities has become unstable, and the plates with long-term oversupply have collapsed, leading to a continuous record low "earthquake" market in July; third, the power of cycle From the perspective of large cycle, the commodity market is still in a downward "glacial period" From the perspective of small cycle, July is also a traditional off-season The superposition effect of large and small cycles makes the market "worse" Liu Xintian judged that although the BPI index and copper, power coal and other commodities have reached a new low, the "second wave" is not over, for two reasons: first, crude oil has not yet completed the bottom exploration Under the background of double innovation low of fuel oil and diesel oil, crude oil has the possibility of falling below $40; secondly, there is a certain deviation in the current performance of upstream, downstream and futures spot: iron ore is still at a high level compared with screw steel and wire rod, and LLDPE futures performance is significantly better than spot The market still has "potential" to tap Liu Xintian expects that the commodity market will continue the "second wave" of decline in August, and BPI may fall below 700 points However, the market's decline in August may be significantly better than that in July If the adjustment is in place in time, it does not exclude that the "gold nine silver ten" market will arrive in late August in advance.