Bottom to confirm the medium and long term rise of corn market

Introduction: before the Spring Festival, the domestic and foreign corn futures market, after converging and sorting out, met the low position during the Spring Festival, stopped falling and stabilized, and started a technical rebound trend At the same time, the position gradually increased, indicating that the short side actively expanded the position to intercept, was resisted by multiple positions, and had a strong supporting effect on the corn price trend After a long-term decline, the rebound basically established the bottom of the early stage, and the funds in the US corn market also changed from a net single to a net multi single Institutional investors also agreed with the bottom of the early stage The author thinks that the international and domestic corn market will probably show the characteristics of short-term callback and long-term rising trend The supply and demand of corn in China was basically stable, and the demand for corn recovered steadily after the festival From the perspective of breeding cycle, the domestic breeding industry is still in the off-season after the festival, but the bird flu in Southeast Asian countries has not caused an outbreak of bird flu in China since last year With the improvement of living standards, the fluctuation of breeding industry before and after the festival will gradually decrease If there is no outbreak, the domestic corn demand and consumption will probably grow steadily, and it is expected that corn feed consumption will maintain a growth rate of 2 million tons per year The consumption of corn in deep processing, seed, damage and other aspects should at least maintain a stable state On the whole, domestic corn demand and consumption may increase by 3.6 million tons to 133 million tons, offsetting the spot suppression of corn supply of 126 million tons Supply and demand not only maintain a balanced situation, but also lead to the gradual reduction of inventory Relatively speaking, the international supply and demand bias factor will offset the domestic supply and demand positive factors The price of oil will return to more than $50 / barrel again, the freight will rise, and China's corn export is expected to increase According to customs data, China's corn export in January was 380000 tons, an increase of 24% year on year According to some traders, it is said that the domestic supply is greater than the demand, but how much the export increase is uncertain As oil prices return to a high of more than $50 per barrel, international transportation costs for corn will be high again The cost of corn planting in China is higher than that in the United States, but the price of corn in China is lower than that in the market of South Korea and Japan, mainly because China is much closer to South Korea and Japan than the United States, and the shipping cost is very low The advantage of transportation cost will be gradually reflected From the current point of view, the rise of crude oil price will not fall in the short term, and may continue to rise At that time, China's corn export will have a more competitive advantage A large number of fund positions, technical confirmation of the early bottom After nearly a year's decline, the price of corn fell nearly 40%, which has basically digested the impact of increased production and inventory Since the Spring Festival, especially in the middle and last ten days of February, under the condition of sharp rebound of soybean price, the fund's short orders on corn have been flattened rapidly following the soybean fund's short orders As of last Thursday, the short orders on corn futures have changed from the net single to the net multi single, with the net multi single more than 6000 hands, which shows that institutional investors such as the fund are also looking forward to the arrival of corn price trend The price comparison among soybean, soybean meal and corn will drive up the price of corn When farmers choose to plant soybean or corn, they usually determine the planting area of corn and soybean by comparing the price relationship between them Therefore, it has a direct impact on the price of corn After the Spring Festival, with the arrival of soybean, especially soybean meal reversal market, corn market rebounded in a small range It is predicted that soybean and soybean meal have entered a seasonal upward trend, and the weather problems caused by El Nino will be an important subject matter of periodic increase Soybean, soybean meal prices will continue to drive the price of corn, corn market may start at any time Farmers can't miss the opportunity of corn's final listing after the festival Since the first half of 2004, the price of agricultural products has been in a downward trend The long-term decline directly leads to the psychological imbalance of farmers' sales The higher and higher selling price of agricultural products in the previous year left a mark in the hearts of farmers However, the selling price of this year is getting worse and worse Farmers are not willing to sell the surplus grain in their hands As the price of corn and other major agricultural products falls sharply, farmers are reluctant to sell the surplus grain in their hands Feed breeding enterprises are naturally reluctant to buy corn and other agricultural products when both supply and demand are bearish Instead, they take a wait-and-see attitude This has resulted in the disappearance of the peak sales of farmers before the Spring Festival After the Spring Festival, farmers began to face spring ploughing, so they did not want to keep food for a long time After the start of spring ploughing, farmers need to buy the necessary fertilizer and agricultural machinery, which also needs funds Therefore, when the last peak of selling surplus grain comes, farmers will accelerate the sale of the remaining grain This rebound is a good time for farmers to sell If a large number of corn is listed, it will inevitably cause pressure on prices, and investors should pay close attention to it With the end of the Spring Festival, the transportation bottleneck is expected to be lifted and the market supply will be accelerated Judging from the current transportation situation, the transportation capacity of agricultural products has been partially restored With the recovery and rise of corn prices in the southern port in February, corn in the North began to be transported to the southern port, and the profits of traders began to increase The recovery of transportation capacity can effectively alleviate the shortage of corn demand in some regions, reduce regional differences and stabilize prices Comprehensive analysis, with the market reversal of agricultural products such as soybeans, corn futures price basically confirmed the bottom of the early stage The current rebound has strong technical and psychological factors, but the rapid rebound does not guarantee that corn prices can quickly get out of the bottom After the Spring Festival, with the slow recovery of prices, the speed of corn listing will be accelerated, and corn prices may fall back slightly again, to build a phased bottom, and then we can really get out of the phased rising market.