Beijing: market analysis and future forecast of meat products in July

Introduction: in January and July, the purchase price of pigs was basically stable, with a year-on-year decrease larger than that of last month In July, the purchase price of pigs was 6.30 yuan / kg, down 0.94% month on month, and the price was basically stable The year-on-year decrease was 9.22%, which was larger than that of last month From January to July, the trend of pig purchase price was basically stable, showing a small fluctuation, but the overall level was far lower than the same period of last year, with an average price of 6.27 yuan / kg, down 10.68% year on year On the whole, one of the important factors for the decline of pig price is that the total stock of pigs in 30 provinces (regions) of China increased by 2.4% compared with the same period of last year at the end of May, and there is a greater pressure to go out of the market In July, the price of pork fell steadily, with a large year-on-year drop In July, the price of pork was 9.22 yuan / kg, slightly lower than that of the previous month, which was - 1.5%; the year-on-year drop was large, which was 13.59% From January to July, the average price was 9.47 yuan / kg, lower than the same period of last year, with a decrease of 7.99% According to the general law, affected by seasonal changes, after the price rises in June, the price of pork should continue to rise to August and September However, from January to June this year, 2.311 million units were listed, an increase of 3.4% over the same period last year, which is one of the reasons for the price drop in July 3 In July, the price of piglets fell slightly, which was much higher than that of last July, which was 9.42 yuan / kg, slightly lower than that of last year, with a decrease of 3.48%, much higher than that of last year, which was 22.82% From January to July, the average price of piglets was 8.96 yuan / kg, higher than 22.09% of the same period last year IV comparison with the average prices of surrounding areas and the whole country In July, the purchase price of live pigs in Beijing was 19.02% higher than the average price of surrounding provinces and cities, and 11% higher than the average price of designated counties in China; the price of pork was 2.33% higher than the average price of surrounding provinces and cities, but 5.34% lower than the average price of designated counties in China; the price of piglets was 32.12% higher than the average price of surrounding provinces and cities and 26.10% higher than the average price of designated counties in China 5 The price of beef stopped falling and picked up, and the price of mutton rose steadily and slightly In July, the price of beef changed from the decline trend in the first half of the year, and the price rose to 13.66 yuan / kg, with a month on month and year-on-year increase of 6.72% and 5.08%, respectively From January to July, the average price was 13.13 yuan / kg, up 0.25% year on year Although mutton prices fluctuated slightly in the first half of this year, the overall trend was relatively stable In July, the price was 15.24 yuan / kg, up 0.93% month on month, down 6.67% year on year, not much From January to July, the average price was 15.25 yuan / kg, down 4.07% year on year 6 Post market analysis and prediction: according to the statistical data of seven years since 1995, only in 2001, due to the sharp fall of corn price in July, the price of pig in August decreased, and in the other six years, compared with July, it increased for five years, and remained the same for one year Generally speaking, the price of pigs in August should be on the rise Moreover, the rise of corn price and seasonality in July this year are also conducive to the rise of pig price However, there are many stocks in the first half of the year, which has a certain inhibitory effect on the rise of pig prices The rise of pig prices in August will not be too large As for pork, the statistics since 1995 also show that the price of pork gradually rises after May to June, with a large recovery from July to September In seven years, the price in August is 6 up and 1 down Pork prices have rebounded in June this year, but in July there was a slight drop, falling to 9.22 yuan / kg, close to the lowest point of the month in 7 years (8.75 yuan / kg, 1998) As a result, prices are expected to rebound in August It usually takes about 6-8 months from piglets to market, and the market time of piglets in August is just around the Spring Festival The expected income has a great impact on the price of piglets At present, the ratio of pig to grain is 6.36: 1, and the ratio of pig to material is 4.53: 1 In recent years, the average price of pork during the Spring Festival is not higher than the average price in August 7 In August, the price of beef and mutton is out of date, and the price of pork and eggs are under pressure All these are conducive to the increase of the price of beef and mutton Combined with various factors, it is expected that the price of beef will slightly increase or even in August, and the price of mutton is expected to remain stable or slightly increase (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: