Behind the soybean meal spot breaking through the 5,000 yuan mark: the import volume of oil mills is lower than in previous years

Since entering September, the spot price of soybean meal has continued to rise due to rising demand and rising bullish sentiment in the
market.
According to the data of China Feed Industry Information Network, on September 13, the price of "43% soybean meal" rose sharply, with an offer of 4770-5100 yuan / ton, the highest increase of 260 yuan / ton
.
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Industry insiders said that the current average transaction price of major oil mills in the country is 4863 yuan / ton, which is the ninth consecutive working day to rise, and broke through the highest level
in five and a half months.
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However, compared with the sharp rise in the spot price of soybean meal, the soybean meal futures disk is more rational, since September 13 to create a high of 4079 yuan / ton, soybean meal futures prices began to fall
.
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On September 15, Dalian soybean meal futures disk is even lower to open low, soybean meal main contract M2301 contract opened 4042 yuan / ton, closed 3985 yuan / ton, down 64 yuan / ton, the highest 4042 yuan / ton, the lowest 3968 yuan / ton, the day fell 1.
58%.

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What impact will the rising market of soybean meal have on downstream enterprises? urR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Oil mill imports lower than in previous years, feed enterprises increase prices urR China feed industry information network - based on feed, service livestock

"Recently, domestic soybean meal spot and futures prices have continued to rise, especially after the Mid-Autumn Festival, futures prices have shown a trend
of jumping high.
One reason is that the supply of the world's main soybean-producing areas is relatively tight
.
Following the severe drought of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina, the main soybean producing countries in South America, which caused production cuts, North American soybeans also continued to decline due
to climatic reasons.
Shi Hengyu, chief analyst of vegetable oil at the Zhongtai Futures Research Institute, told
the China Times reporter.
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According to the reporter's understanding, for a long time, the report of the US Department of Agriculture has been regarded as the vane of global agricultural products, and futures traders are generally more concerned about the reports issued by the US Department of Agriculture, especially for investors
who do soybean oil and soybean meal futures.
In addition, because China's soybean oil and soybean meal are mainly pressed from imported soybeans, the price trend of soybeans and soybean meal is greatly
affected by U.
S.
beans.
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In response to the soybean report released by the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture, Shen Yuanbing, a big data researcher at Blake's agricultural big data, told the "China Times" reporter that from the supply side, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's September supply and demand report lowered the U.
S.
soybean yield to 50.
5 pus per acre, which is lower than the 51.
9 pupu per acre in 8 months and the market forecast of 51.
5 pu, plus the downward adjustment of the 2022/23 US soybean ending inventory to 200 million pu, the lowest level in seven years.
The report also led to the highest level
of CBOT soybean futures since July.
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At the same time, Shen Yuanbing said that the continuous depreciation of the renminbi since the second quarter of this year has also pushed up the cost
of soybean imports to a certain extent.
In July, the import cost of soybeans once fell back to 4400 yuan / ton, and now rebounded to 5200-5300 yuan / ton, an increase of about 20
%.
Due to the rising cost of soybean imports, coupled with the sluggish domestic oil and fat extraction, and even losses, the number of active imports by oil mills is limited
.
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Li Xuesong, who has long been engaged in point price trading, told the "China Times" reporter that now the soybean crushing profit is upside down, the number of soybeans actively imported by oil mills is lower than in the same period of previous years, the import volume of soybeans in August is only 7.
16 million tons, the lowest level of imports in the same period in the past five years, and the import volume of soybeans in January to August 2022 is 61.
33 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.
6%; Imports amounted to US$41.
01 billion, up 14.
1% year-on-year; The average import price was 668.
6 US dollars / ton, up 24.
8%
year-on-year.
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However, Shen Yuanbing said that during the same period of decline in soybean imports, oil and fat production in Southeast Asia was increasing, especially palm oil has maintained a downward trend, which has also led to lower
global oil prices.
At the same time, the domestic catering consumption is insufficient, the price of oil and fat fell by about 30% compared with the beginning of June, and the decline in oil and fat prices will naturally reduce the willingness of oil mills to squeeze oil, further reducing soybean meal production, thereby supporting the rise in
soybean meal prices.
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From the demand side, the current pig price to maintain 10-12 yuan / catty, breeding profits, meat poultry, egg poultry breeding profits are good and the market is optimistic about the future, downstream feed breeding enterprises under the demand for stock, soybean meal inventory continued to decrease, and since this year, soybean meal inventory as a whole to maintain a low level, feed enterprises to aggravate the supply of soybean meal tight situation
.
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In this regard, Shi Hengyu said that since entering the third quarter, the profits of the domestic pig and poultry breeding industry have gradually warmed up, and the enthusiasm of breeding enterprises to supplement the fence and press the fence is higher, which increases the purchase demand for feed, and under the better level of breeding profits, some breeding enterprises have increased the proportion
of soybean meal added in the formula 。 In addition, some downstream feed mills and breeding enterprises based on the current long-term soybean procurement progress and profit structure on the future domestic soybean meal basis and price judgment are biased towards optimism, resulting in a certain speculative stock demand, resulting in an increase in the channel inventory of soybean meal in the middle reaches, but also to a certain extent to contribute
to the growth of soybean meal apparent demand.
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However, the reporter found that with the price of soybean meal exceeding 5,000 yuan / ton, some feed companies have also announced price
increases.
According to the data of China Feed Industry Information Network, rapeseed cotton meal has recently been running at a high level of about 3850 yuan / ton, and the feed mill has ushered in a new round of price increases in September, this time following the Hunan Hubei aquatic feed, Shandong, Jiangxi, Fujian, Sichuan-Chongqing and other places of livestock and poultry, aquatic feed have increased prices
.
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Among them, Linyi Haiding Feed Technology Co.
, Ltd.
in Shandong Province said that since September 12, the teaching tank material, concentrated material, suckling pig feed rose by 100 yuan / ton, piglet feed, medium and large pig feed and sow feed increased by 50 yuan / ton
.
Shandong Rhino Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Feed Development Co.
, Ltd.
said that since September 12, the teaching tank material, concentrated material and suckling pig feed have risen by 100 yuan / ton, and the piglet feed, medium and large pig feed and sow feed have risen by 50 yuan / ton
.
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The agency predicts the future trend of soybean meal urR China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

With the recent rise in soybean meal prices, feed prices have once again become the focus of
industry attention.
In the face of rising feed prices, some farmers told reporters that if the increase in meat prices can cover the cost of feed, "then we can continue to support for a while, but the current situation is that the price of meat is not high, and the feed continues to raise prices, if the cost of feed continues to rise, I am afraid we will lose money.
"
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As the cost of farming continues to rise, it is inevitable that farming enterprises will need to purchase alternative raw materials
.
It is understood that feed is the biggest factor affecting the cost of breeding, many pig farmers will reduce the cost of breeding through feed ratio, such as the use of multi-amino acid balance to reduce the amount of soybean meal, some small and medium-sized farmers will even use their own planting by-products, the cost of breeding reduced to less than
6 yuan / catty.
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For the acceptance of soybean meal prices in the downstream, Shi Hengyu said that on the one hand, it depends on the high and low absolute price, and on the other hand, it depends on the downstream farming profits
.
The price of soybean meal is currently in the high price range, but under the condition that the farming profit is still relatively ideal, the high price and basis of soybean meal will likely be maintained for a period of time
.
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So what are the next factors that affect soybean meal prices? In this regard, Shi Hengyu said that in the future, the influencing factors of soybean meal prices will still include import costs and domestic supply and demand
.
Judging from the current situation in the international market, the continued high volatility of CBOT soybeans may be a high probability event
.
After entering the fourth quarter of this year, the domestic soybean meal crushing volume and inventory will also enter a seasonal trough, which may continue to support
prices and basis.
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In response to the late trend of soybean meal, Chen Jing, deputy director of the Agricultural Products Division of CITIC Futures, said that on the macro side, the Fed interest rate hike process continues, and the pessimism of the "hard landing" of the superimposed US economy is like a shadow, which is expected to dominate the weak volatility of the commodity market in the later period; On the capital side, under the influence of risk aversion, the total domestic funds fell month-on-month, and the net long positions of the superimposed CFTC continued to decline, which formed a downward pressure
on the price.
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"Fundamentals, although the USDA supply and demand report gives the expectation of a reduction in the production of new beans in the United States, the pressure of concentrated soybean market has gradually accumulated over time; In addition, the later period of attention to the South American soybean production is expected, the current probability is expected to be larger
.
In terms of demand, the process of de-capacity of livestock and poultry continued until the first quarter of 2023, which limited
the marginal increase in demand.
Therefore, the supply and demand exposure expanded in the fourth quarter, basically facing the bearish impact of
protein meal prices.
Chen Jing said
.
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Shen Yuanbing also said that on the one hand, he pays attention to the production of soybeans in South America, on the other hand, he looks at the price trend of livestock and poultry, and whether the profits of livestock and poultry breeding have led to a more common pressure on farm households to increase the demand for
soybean meal feed.
With the signs of a global economic slowdown becoming more pronounced and the optimistic production prospects for South American soybeans, the current downward momentum of the US soybean market needs to wait for new bullish themes to materialize
.
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"In terms of oil and fat, due to the increase in palm oil production in Malaysia, global oil and fat prices will fall under pressure in the fourth quarter, domestic soybean oil prices are expected to be weak, the cost of imported soybeans is more spread to soybean meal production, and the overall price of soybean meal in the future market is stronger than that of soybean oil prices
.
" At present, the pig price is 11-12 yuan / kg, the breeding profit is better, and the farm households have a pressure fence
.
Shen Yuanbing said
.
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However, Shen Yuanbing said that the policy side of the reserve meat, interviews with large enterprises and other regulations continue, the future market pig price or stable adjustment, the downstream of the current soybean meal 4900-5000 yuan / ton high price acceptance is not good, the price downward transmission is not smooth, the price of soybean meal or a stage of weakness, but soybean imports are less plus oil prices weak, soybean meal as a whole will be stronger than oil, while significantly higher than the same period last year, last year's soybean meal price is only 3000 yuan / ton, this year's fourth quarter is more difficult to appear 4000 yuan / Tons of soybean meal
below.
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