Behind the roller coaster of pig stocks such as Muyuan, the supply and demand of live pigs in Henan

 　　Muyuan shares are also hot stocks with a high topical issue.
In the early stage, from the high of 92 yuan in February, it fell all the way to more than 39 yuan at the lowest in July, a drop of nearly 60%; then it began a sharp rebound, with a range increase.
Up to one-third
.

　　There are various doubts about Muyuan shares in the superimposed market: the performance is outstanding in the industry's bleak, the "old village" Henan Hongbao has cashed in large sums, and more than 100 million refinancing is on the road, which is dizzying
.
The attention of these topics has been high enough, Mr.
Lichang will not express his opinion first, and talk about the current industry background of pork
.
6Eh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　This round of pig cycle peaked in October 2019, and pork prices began to fall slowly, and began to pick up in September this year.
In October, domestic and foreign three-yuan pig prices rebounded sharply after bottoming out, with a sharp increase of 41.
84% within the month; With the rebound in prices, Wen's shares, one of the leading pork companies in A-shares, rose more than 40% from the lowest point, and Muyuan shares also rebounded sharply
.
The key is, is it sustainable?6Eh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Recently, an animal husbandry expert from Henan Province made an analysis of the supply and demand of the pig market at this stage during a survey.
Mr.
Lichang felt that some of the main points are worth paying attention to, and they are summarized as follows:6Eh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　1.
Regarding capacity reduction: The current capacity reduction is too slow.
On the one hand, the free-range household capacity reduction rate is only 20% in this cycle.
The main pressure is not cash flow, but more psychological pressure.
Some retail farmers are more optimistic about the pig price expectations in the second half of next year and are willing to carry it
.
On the other hand, small and medium-sized markets have the greatest cash pressure.
The cost is comparable to that of group factories but there is no financing channel for listed companies.
At the same time, the use of leverage to expand the scale during the boom last year also consumes cash flow.
Small and medium-sized markets will definitely stick to the last moment when cash flow dries up
.
No matter how large the loss is at the beginning, the pressure on confidence will not be as great as the continuous loss.
Therefore, the fastest pace of capacity reduction should appear next year
.
6Eh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　2.
Regarding production costs: free-range households: 13-14 yuan/kg.
Some husband-and-wife farms work during the day and come back to clean the pigsty at night, and some feed corn directly
.
Scale field: For those with financing, it must be 15 yuan/kg or more, basically 15-20 yuan/kg, the difference lies in whether to do a binary return or outsourcing
.
(Note: Muyuan shares stated on the investor interaction platform that the company's complete breeding cost in the third quarter was about 15 yuan/kg
.
)6Eh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　3.
About frozen product inventory: The frozen product trade is now mainly traded between traders.
The scale of frozen product inventory is still relatively large, with a gross estimate of 4 million tons, of which 1.
5 million tons are imported; it has basically maintained at more than 1 million tons in history.
, The highest in 2019 was more than 7 million tons
.
Moreover, historically, the inventory of slaughter companies is basically not profitable and will not be sold
.
(Note: Shuanghui Development's inventory at the end of the third quarter was 7.
3 billion, a decrease of 500 million from the second quarter, but it was still a huge increase from the 5.
8 billion at the end of the first quarter
.
)6Eh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　4.
Regarding the consumption situation: before the Huaihe River, there was very little habit of filling sausages.
This year, after the pig price remained high for two consecutive years, it suddenly dropped, which stimulated a lot of consumption
.
This part of the new demand has little effect on the consumption of fresh meat during the Spring Festival, but it will have an impact on the consumption of pork in the next 6 months or so
.
6Eh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　5.
Regarding futures prices: the pig price may break 10 yuan in the first half of next year, and there is no strong fundamental support for a short-term rebound in pig prices
.
OK, let’s talk about the price trend of the pig industry today.
In the next issue, Lichang will continue to talk to you about the recent soaring vegetable industry, and you are welcome to continue to pay attention!6Eh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry