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Lead
Last Friday, the National Development and Reform Commission once again spoke out about pigs, mainly according to the analysis of the current pig price compared with the same period in history to be high, the main reasons are two points, the first is that farmers are reluctant to sell, secondary fattening, the second is that the price of feed continues to rise, breeding costs continue to rise, but the production side data shows that there is no shortage of pigs overall, and the price will fall
back after the market is concentrated.
As soon as such information came out, the spot was still in the rising channel, but the futures disk had a clear reaction setback, from rising to falling, once falling below the 5-day moving average
.
In terms of spot, the upstream exit is tight, which has strong support for prices, and downstream demand is relatively weak, forming a situation of
high prices but low volume.
At present, the dominant force of prices is still on the supply side, and the space for influence on the demand side is limited
.
The positive cycle of "pig prices continue to rise, and the situation of pressing the fence and selling is constantly staged" is constantly maintained and
strengthened.
During the National Day period, the price of live pigs has risen sharply, the post-holiday opening futures market in recent months of the price up and down, the main contract rose by more than 5%, the spot price of pigs is still rising, the data of the National Grain and Oil Information Center shows that the current fresh fruit pig price in some parts of the country has exceeded 28 yuan / kg, and the average price has exceeded 27 yuan / kg
.
Current policy analysis
According to the statistics of pork prices in 36 cities by the National Development and Reform Commission, it was found that this year's price increase compared with last year increased by more than 40% year-on-year, which has triggered the first-level warning condition
of excessive pork prices.
In terms of policy, the regulation of spot is also urgent, and these actions are mainly to curb the excessive rise in prices and control the adverse impact
on the industry.
At present, the price of live pigs is already in the excessive rise range, the risk of price fluctuations continues to rise, the current recommendation of farmers is not to press the pen for sale, to follow the trend out of the slaughter fattening pigs, to achieve "bag for safety", which can effectively avoid the risk of price fluctuations, in general, from the price of pork began to rise in May to now, the country's
policy control and determination is still very strong.
Analysis of the situation of major listed pig companies
In September 2022, statistics on the slaughter status of 14 listed enterprises showed a total of 10.
0788 million pigs slaughtered, an increase of 0.
8% month-on-month and 13.
6% year-on-year, and a total of 92.
6287 million pigs slaughtered from January to September, a decrease of 6.
45%
from 2021 。 On the whole, the current production capacity of listed companies is relatively stable, if you refer to the changes in the number of newborn piglets that can breed sows and scale farms in the early stage, in fact, the lowest supply time this year is concentrated in July and August, and the listing company slaughter situation also shows that the lowest slaughter volume in the current year is 9.
61 million in July, and the month in August and September continued to increase, and it is expected that the production capacity will gradually increase in the listed enterprises as a whole, but the increase is due to the actual recovery of the actual recovery after the active or passive removal of the early production capacity is relatively late.
Therefore, on the one hand, the range is limited, on the other hand, the main recovery of production capacity is the supply of standard pigs of about 120kg at the end of the year, and consumer demand in the fourth quarter is more inclined to large pigs or fat pigs, so although the supply capacity has been gradually increased, the actual supplementary suppression effect on the market is relatively limited
.
However, it is still necessary to guard against the "run" situation
in the peak season before the Spring Festival due to the lack of market confidence in the low season after the holiday.
Listing and filling the fence
In addition to short-term slaughter volume, another important factor in price fluctuations is the structure of the pig and the slaughter weight
.
The characteristics of this year's secondary fattening are that secondary fattening mainly occurs in the group of retail investors, and the production capacity of retail investors last year was more obvious
than that of the group factory.
On the one hand, in order to restore cash flow demand, the group factory has less motivation for secondary fattening, and was affected by a large loss in breeding profits in the second half of last year until May this year, coupled with the impact of enterprise expansion in the first half of last year, the cash flow of the group factory is relatively tight
.
On the other hand, in response to the national supply guarantee policy, it is normally out of the market
.
Since August, the price spread of standard fertilizer has been widening, and the supply of fat pigs is limited
.
Secondary fattening will be an important factor in the price pullback in the next month, as well as the observation indicators
that continue to test the price center of gravity.
In order to cooperate with the work of ensuring supply, the head enterprise has an incremental performance, selling a small number of pigs of about 110 kg, but the large pigs of scattered households within the week choose to be higher than the slaughter, which increases the average weight of the slaughter during the week; With the cooling of the weather, the terminal demand for large pigs is good, and the market weight gain phenomenon is common, or support the weight of the slaughter to rise
further.
The enthusiasm for piglet restocking is limited, and the average price of 15kg piglets in the country has dropped to 600 yuan / head; However, the recent increase in the price of live pigs has not changed much, and the price of 50kg sows has basically stabilized at the level
of 1800 yuan / head.
Review
The analysis of production capacity in the first three quarters of this year has basically determined the situation at the end of the year, and most of the subsequent month-on-month increases in slaughter volume are aimed at increasing the supply of standard pigs, and the probability of large pigs is insufficient to become a strong support
for the price at the end of the year.
The consumption situation is basically the historical median in recent years, the seasonal recovery of the consumption at the end of the year continues to improve, the pig price at the end of the year is mainly to look at the amount of supply and the amount of consumption recovery between the strength comparison, it seems that the end of the year to next year's Spring Festival, the amount of consumption recovery is more advantageous
.
At present, the main purpose of such close policy regulation and control in China is to control the excessive rise and large increase in pig prices, which itself does not have the impact
of reversing basic supply and demand.
If consumption recovery at the end of the year is not as expected, there will be a risk of a run, and the follow-up pig price recommendation is to be cautious and bullish, and the production capacity after next year should pay close attention to the situation
of restocking and breeding and winter nursery in the fourth quarter of this year.
;
;Lead
Lead Last Friday, the National Development and Reform Commission once again spoke out about pigs, mainly according to the analysis of the current pig price compared with the same period in history to be high, the main reasons are two points, the first is that farmers are reluctant to sell, secondary fattening, the second is that the price of feed continues to rise, breeding costs continue to rise, but the production side data shows that there is no shortage of pigs overall, and the price will fall
back after the market is concentrated.
As soon as such information came out, the spot was still in the rising channel, but the futures disk had a clear reaction setback, from rising to falling, once falling below the 5-day moving average
.
In terms of spot, the upstream exit is tight, which has strong support for prices, and downstream demand is relatively weak, forming a situation of
high prices but low volume.
At present, the dominant force of prices is still on the supply side, and the space for influence on the demand side is limited
.
The positive cycle of "pig prices continue to rise, and the situation of pressing the fence and selling is constantly staged" is constantly maintained and
strengthened.
During the National Day period, the price of live pigs has risen sharply, the post-holiday opening futures market in recent months of the price up and down, the main contract rose by more than 5%, the spot price of pigs is still rising, the data of the National Grain and Oil Information Center shows that the current fresh fruit pig price in some parts of the country has exceeded 28 yuan / kg, and the average price has exceeded 27 yuan / kg
.
Current policy analysis
Current policy analysis According to the statistics of pork prices in 36 cities by the National Development and Reform Commission, it was found that this year's price increase compared with last year increased by more than 40% year-on-year, which has triggered the first-level warning condition
of excessive pork prices.
In terms of policy, the regulation of spot is also urgent, and these actions are mainly to curb the excessive rise in prices and control the adverse impact
on the industry.
At present, the price of live pigs is already in the excessive rise range, the risk of price fluctuations continues to rise, the current recommendation of farmers is not to press the pen for sale, to follow the trend out of the slaughter fattening pigs, to achieve "bag for safety", which can effectively avoid the risk of price fluctuations, in general, from the price of pork began to rise in May to now, the country's
policy control and determination is still very strong.
Analysis of the situation of major listed pig companies
Analysis of the situation of major listed pig companies In September 2022, statistics on the slaughter status of 14 listed enterprises showed a total of 10.
0788 million pigs slaughtered, an increase of 0.
8% month-on-month and 13.
6% year-on-year, and a total of 92.
6287 million pigs slaughtered from January to September, a decrease of 6.
45%
from 2021 。 On the whole, the current production capacity of listed companies is relatively stable, if you refer to the changes in the number of newborn piglets that can breed sows and scale farms in the early stage, in fact, the lowest supply time this year is concentrated in July and August, and the listing company slaughter situation also shows that the lowest slaughter volume in the current year is 9.
61 million in July, and the month in August and September continued to increase, and it is expected that the production capacity will gradually increase in the listed enterprises as a whole, but the increase is due to the actual recovery of the actual recovery after the active or passive removal of the early production capacity is relatively late.
Therefore, on the one hand, the range is limited, on the other hand, the main recovery of production capacity is the supply of standard pigs of about 120kg at the end of the year, and consumer demand in the fourth quarter is more inclined to large pigs or fat pigs, so although the supply capacity has been gradually increased, the actual supplementary suppression effect on the market is relatively limited
.
However, it is still necessary to guard against the "run" situation
in the peak season before the Spring Festival due to the lack of market confidence in the low season after the holiday.
Listing and filling the fence
Listing and filling the fence In addition to short-term slaughter volume, another important factor in price fluctuations is the structure of the pig and the slaughter weight
.
The characteristics of this year's secondary fattening are that secondary fattening mainly occurs in the group of retail investors, and the production capacity of retail investors last year was more obvious
than that of the group factory.
On the one hand, in order to restore cash flow demand, the group factory has less motivation for secondary fattening, and was affected by a large loss in breeding profits in the second half of last year until May this year, coupled with the impact of enterprise expansion in the first half of last year, the cash flow of the group factory is relatively tight
.
On the other hand, in response to the national supply guarantee policy, it is normally out of the market
.
Since August, the price spread of standard fertilizer has been widening, and the supply of fat pigs is limited
.
Secondary fattening will be an important factor in the price pullback in the next month, as well as the observation indicators
that continue to test the price center of gravity.
In order to cooperate with the work of ensuring supply, the head enterprise has an incremental performance, selling a small number of pigs of about 110 kg, but the large pigs of scattered households within the week choose to be higher than the slaughter, which increases the average weight of the slaughter during the week; With the cooling of the weather, the terminal demand for large pigs is good, and the market weight gain phenomenon is common, or support the weight of the slaughter to rise
further.
The enthusiasm for piglet restocking is limited, and the average price of 15kg piglets in the country has dropped to 600 yuan / head; However, the recent increase in the price of live pigs has not changed much, and the price of 50kg sows has basically stabilized at the level
of 1800 yuan / head.
Review
Review The analysis of production capacity in the first three quarters of this year has basically determined the situation at the end of the year, and most of the subsequent month-on-month increases in slaughter volume are aimed at increasing the supply of standard pigs, and the probability of large pigs is insufficient to become a strong support
for the price at the end of the year.
The consumption situation is basically the historical median in recent years, the seasonal recovery of the consumption at the end of the year continues to improve, the pig price at the end of the year is mainly to look at the amount of supply and the amount of consumption recovery between the strength comparison, it seems that the end of the year to next year's Spring Festival, the amount of consumption recovery is more advantageous
.
At present, the main purpose of such close policy regulation and control in China is to control the excessive rise and large increase in pig prices, which itself does not have the impact
of reversing basic supply and demand.
If consumption recovery at the end of the year is not as expected, there will be a risk of a run, and the follow-up pig price recommendation is to be cautious and bullish, and the production capacity after next year should pay close attention to the situation
of restocking and breeding and winter nursery in the fourth quarter of this year.
