Behind KFC and McDonald's "price-cutting boom", what's the price of chicken?

Friends who often eat fast food may find that in recent times, KFC, McDonald's set off a wave of "price reduction", "20 yuan to get 20 pieces of McLeod chicken", "original chicken half-price barrel", daily concessions continue.
this is the new crown under the outbreak of the restaurant industry depressed merchants have to promote survival, but also from the side reflects the weakness of chicken prices.
indeed, compared with the high prices of pork and beef, chicken has clearly been a bit of a "can't bear to look straight in the eye" in recent times.
According to data released by China Feed Industry Information Network, the price of white feathered chicken on August 28 was 3.93 yuan/kg, down as much as 20% from 4.95 yuan/kg on April 1.
, according to the China Livestock Association, white feathered broiler chicken is the largest source of chicken in China's end-consumer market, accounting for more than 50% in 2017.
, pork and beef prices are a different picture.
28, the wholesale price of pork in the agricultural market was 48.41 yuan/kg, up 4.5% from 46.31 yuan at the beginning of April, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
same period, the average wholesale price of beef in the national agricultural market rose from 71.66 yuan to 74.28 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 3.7%.
recently, beef prices have been hotly searched for 10 consecutive weeks.
analysts, the weakness in chicken prices is the result of both supply and demand, and there is no sign of "out of the way". Jiang Yuexin, an agricultural analyst at
Guosheng Securities, told Interface News that last year, affected by the outbreak of swine fever in Africa, the substitution effect to a certain extent driven the demand for chicken, led to the active expansion of the white feather chicken industry upstream and downstream, the overall supply of chicken showed a rapid upward trend.
2017, the year before the outbreak of swine fever, China's chicken consumption was 11.475 million tons, according to China Industry Information Network.
2019, the national chicken consumption rose to 14.273 million tons.
prices and profits increased, broiler farmers naturally make up the column actively.
the problem is that analysts point out that the chicken cycle is much shorter than that of raising pigs, and that in the short term the concentration of supplements leads to a relative oversupply.
generally speaking, it takes about 45 days for white-feathered chickens to hatch chicks for sale.
pig is born to slaughtered, a growth cycle usually takes 4-5 months.
If from the reserve sow to fattening pig column, it will take about 14 months, in turn to experience can breed sows, piglets, weaning piglets, piglets, medium and large pigs and other 5 different forms or links.
" chicken cycle is relatively short, about 40 days, much shorter than the pig cycle," Zhu Danpong, an analyst with China's food industry, told Interface News.
latest statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that domestic food and beverage revenue reached 328.2 billion yuan in July, down 11.0% year-on-year.
January-July, food and beverage revenue fell by 29.6% year-on-year.
pointed out that the current parents of chicken breeding column is still hovering at a high level, if no accident, the second half of the chicken supply is sufficient, chicken prices in the short term continue to fluctuate more likely.
, the average number of chickens planted on behalf of parents continued to be at a high level, with an average increase of 17.6% year-on-year, according to data monitored by Zhuo Zhuo.
, in July, the number of chickens planted on behalf of the parents increased by 19.1% year-on-year.
Recoce the situation of seedlings, Zhuo Tsing data show that in August, the total number of domestic white feather broiler seedlings 438.1 million, up 9.6 million, or 2.24 percent, month-on-month in July, excluding the mid-to-late August chicken seedlings showed a certain reduction, most of the time the domestic chicken seed supply showed a slow increase trend.
" future chicken prices mainly depends on the role of supply and demand leverage, if farmers feel that they can not make money, less supply, prices will rise.
" Zhu Danpong said that with the start of the school season in September, chicken demand may be slightly improved, but for the time being, as the situation of oversupply has not changed, chicken prices rebound less room.
Yuexin expressed a similar view.
She believes that the situation of chicken demand may have improved slightly, taking into account the negative impact of follow-up school openings and heavy rainfall in the south on the recovery of pig production capacity, coupled with the holiday effects of autumn and winter for meat consumption season and Mid-Autumn National Day.
" but based on the later stage of the pig cycle, pig prices will gradually return to normal, adversely affecting the consumption of broiler chicken, in the supply-side production capacity is at a high pressure, chicken prices may remain down in the future.
," she said.
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