Before the Spring Festival, corn price rebound is limited, especially after the festival

Introduction: Recently, the domestic corn market shows obvious signs of stopping decline, and shows a trend of recovery The corn purchase in the production area is active As of January 21, Jilin Province purchased 9.28 million tons of corn, an increase of 4.753 million tons compared with the same period last year The price of corn in the sales area has risen slightly, with an increase of 10-20 yuan / ton At present, the average price of Jilin corn car board is 940 yuan / ton, the lowest is 900 yuan / ton, Longjiang is 920 yuan / ton, Hebei is 930 yuan, Shandong is 940 yuan / ton, Sichuan is 1130 yuan / ton, Hubei is 1100 yuan / ton, Zhejiang is 1070 yuan / ton, Shanghai is 1020 yuan / ton, Guangdong is 1130 yuan / ton, Fujian is 1120 yuan / ton, Dalian is 1020 yuan / ton, Qinhuangdao is about 1000 yuan / ton The recent recovery of corn price is mainly affected by the following factors: first, the progress of corn acquisition is obviously accelerated, and the acquisition price has a rising trend Judging from the situation in Jilin Province, the current protected price of corn in storage has reached 9.28 million tons, more than twice the same period last year In addition to the 1.04 million tons of corn purchased by local reserves and national special reserves, the purchase volume of corn has exceeded 10 million tons, greatly exceeding the level of the same period last year At the same time of the increase of corn purchase quantity, the purchase price also increased slightly compared with the previous period, especially in Huanghuai area of North China The purchase price of corn in Hebei is 0.80-0.84 yuan / kg, Henan and Shandong is 0.90 yuan / kg, and the price of corn in the purchase link is 1-2 cents (10-20 yuan / ton) 2 Affected by the message At the beginning of January, the Ministry of Agriculture issued the detailed rules for the implementation of the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms, which made specific provisions for the import of foreign genetically modified soybeans and corn In essence, this is the technical barrier measures taken by the state to prevent the excessive impact of a large number of imported grains on the domestic market after China's accession to the WTO The introduction of this policy may have an impact on the import of corn in the future The domestic corn market can be regarded as a good policy, which increases the risk of imported corn and limits the quantity of imported corn 3 Near the Spring Festival, the railway transportation capacity is tight Influenced by the approaching of traditional Spring Festival and college students' holidays, the railway passenger traffic volume increases and the transportation capacity is tense, which causes the short-term interruption of corn transportation The decrease of the quantity of grain arriving at the port (station) in the southern sales area causes the fluctuation of corn price Fourth, the demand effect in the peak season of the festival will increase the consumption of corn The Spring Festival is the production peak season of the breeding industry Feed manufacturers worry that the supply of holiday raw materials will not be sufficient They have prepared enough production raw materials before the festival to increase inventory The short-term demand pull effect makes corn prices slightly rise 5 The market psychological factors have changed, and the blind short mentality has been corrected On the one hand, the continuous decline of corn price, the energy consumption of short market has been exhausted, and the corn price has the requirement of bottoming out and rebounding; on the other hand, the continuous callback of price, the increasing reluctance of farmers to sell, has also played a driving role in the price recovery Under the joint effect of the above favorable factors, the domestic corn price has come out of a rebound market However, for the stabilization and recovery of corn price, we don't think the price rise space will be too large, and it will not last for a long time As last year's spectacular rise market has gone forever The rebound of corn price can last until the end of February to the beginning of March after the Spring Festival at most Then, the peak of grain sales before the preparation for cultivation in the main corn production area of Northeast China will promote the market After the Spring Festival, the production area will also increase its sales force in view of the serious over negative corn inventory in the main production area Recently, Henan, a major grain producing province in the Central Plains, has decided to complete the 6.75 million tons of grain sales reduction task this year The promotion and storage reduction task in Jilin, Longjiang and other provinces in Northeast China is also very arduous For the future corn market trend, without considering the influence of import and other factors, only From the perspective of the strong resistance to the further increase of corn price in the future caused by the domestic main production province's corn promotion and stock reduction policy, it will be enough for the market to digest for a period of time, so we can't place too high expectation on the rebound of corn price.