BCI sanlianyin commodity market enters the period of "shuffling"

According to the latest data from China securities online news (reporter song Weiping), the BCI index of bulk commodity supply and demand in July was - 0.73, with an average increase of - 4.31%, reflecting the contraction of the manufacturing economy in the month compared with the previous month and the increased risk of economic downturn According to the BCI trend chart, the great Yin line was collected in July, forming a triple yin with double Yin in May and June, and the amplitude of Yin line increased month by month (BCI in May and June were - 0.36 and - 0.45 respectively) Compared with July 2014 (- 0.25), BCI also declined in July 2015 It is worth noting that - 0.73 has also set a new low of BCI for three years, which is the first low value in history (the previous lowest value was - 0.71 in May 2012) Liu Xintian, chief analyst of business club, pointed out that BCI objectively reflects the real situation of the recent commodity market and manufacturing economy, that is, the commodity market and manufacturing economy have entered a low again Liu Xintian analyzed that BCI performance in July was caused by three reasons: first, the market has entered a new downward cycle since May, and July is the traditional off-season, which is just a rainy day; second, the main bulk commodities represented by crude oil started a new round of bottoming, and the midstream and downstream varieties represented by PTA also began to "collapse" and the whole market was "empty"; third, the overall market in the first half of the year It is relatively stable, but the contradiction between supply and demand still exists The accumulated downward pressure was released in July 5 In June, the market was really active and was already shuffling The purpose of this shuffling is undoubtedly to reduce the supply pressure and ease the contradiction between supply and demand Liu Xintian expected that the situation in August 2015 was not optimistic Even if the market supply and demand situation improved, it would be difficult to fundamentally reverse the inertia market However, considering that the "golden nine silver ten" is approaching, and the collapse in July has digested part of the pressure, the possibility of a sharp fall in August is not great, and the possibility of closing the middle yin or the small Yin is greater.