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Baotai Co.
, Ltd.
(49.
670, -0.
28, -0.
56%) is the largest titanium alloy specialized base in China
.
Titanium is known as a "strategic metal" due to its excellent properties
.
As a veteran titanium material enterprise with a history of more than 60 years, the company is the largest specialized base for titanium alloys in China.
Participated in the formulation of a number of national standards
.
The company's titanium products cover titanium and titanium alloy plates, strips, foils, tubes, rods, wires, forgings, castings and other processed materials, which are used in high-end fields such as aviation, aerospace, and deep diving
.
The application of aerospace titanium materials has accelerated growth, and the market space is still broad
.
According to the "2020 China Titanium Industry Development Report", the application of titanium materials in China's aerospace industry in 2020 will be 17,228 tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.
73%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.
34pct
.
Aerospace has become an important application field of titanium materials second only to chemical industry, but compared with the global titanium materials used for aviation always occupy about 50% of the total demand for titanium materials, China's aerospace titanium materials market still has great potential
.
The investment and qualification barriers in the titanium industry have resulted in a high degree of industry concentration, and high-end titanium materials require independent and stable supply
.
The downstream demand for military aircraft and engine installation/maintenance, aerospace rockets/missiles, etc.
is strongly driven
.
In the aviation field, we estimate that the average annual demand for titanium alloys driven by military/commercial aircraft fuselage and engines from 2021 to 2030 is about 14,900 tons per year, with a value of about 5.
50 billion yuan per year
.
In the aerospace field, rocket launches hit a new high, missile models were mass-produced, and model development was transformed into a systematic and serialized actual combat, showing a high degree of prosperity
.
According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in 2020, the new expansion projects in the chemical PTA field will drive the largest demand for titanium materials
.
In 2020, the total revenue of titanium product-related business of the three listed companies in the domestic titanium industry is 6.
854 billion yuan, and the revenue of Russian VSMPO-AVISMA, a leading foreign enterprise, is as high as 8.
063 billion yuan.
.
In 2020, the foreign aviation market is weak, and the revenue of the two titanium giants has declined, while the revenue of titanium products of the three domestic listed companies has increased, reflecting the strong demand in the domestic market and the driving force of domestic substitution
.
Strong demand supports high capacity utilization rate, and takes the lead in breaking through bottlenecks through additional issuance and expansion
.
Due to its special physical properties, titanium alloys have high requirements for smelting, forging and pressing equipment and processes.
The special equipment required for capacity expansion requires a large investment at one time, and the cycle is generally more than 2 years
.
Baoti's capacity utilization rate in 2020 has reached 93.
97%.
By fully tapping the potential, the actual production capacity has exceeded the design capacity.
The company raised and invested in the project in October 2019 to fully expand the production capacity of titanium ingots and titanium materials
.
The company is the first to expand production among the three listed companies in the industry, and is expected to be the first to put the project into operation, and to enjoy the dividends of titanium demand driven by the rapid growth of the downstream equipment market
.
We adjust the profit forecast.
It is expected that the company's net profit attributable to the parent in 2021-2023 will be 5.
68/8.
6/1.
144 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 1.
19/1.
8/2.
39 yuan/share, corresponding to the closing price on February 10, 2022 PE is 42/ 27.
7/20.
9 times, maintaining the "prudent overweight" rating
.
Risk warning: Intensified competition in the aerospace field; rising raw material prices; capacity expansion and R&D investment may affect performance release in the short term
.
, Ltd.
(49.
670, -0.
28, -0.
56%) is the largest titanium alloy specialized base in China
.
Titanium is known as a "strategic metal" due to its excellent properties
.
As a veteran titanium material enterprise with a history of more than 60 years, the company is the largest specialized base for titanium alloys in China.
Participated in the formulation of a number of national standards
.
The company's titanium products cover titanium and titanium alloy plates, strips, foils, tubes, rods, wires, forgings, castings and other processed materials, which are used in high-end fields such as aviation, aerospace, and deep diving
.
The application of aerospace titanium materials has accelerated growth, and the market space is still broad
.
According to the "2020 China Titanium Industry Development Report", the application of titanium materials in China's aerospace industry in 2020 will be 17,228 tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.
73%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.
34pct
.
Aerospace has become an important application field of titanium materials second only to chemical industry, but compared with the global titanium materials used for aviation always occupy about 50% of the total demand for titanium materials, China's aerospace titanium materials market still has great potential
.
The investment and qualification barriers in the titanium industry have resulted in a high degree of industry concentration, and high-end titanium materials require independent and stable supply
.
The downstream demand for military aircraft and engine installation/maintenance, aerospace rockets/missiles, etc.
is strongly driven
.
In the aviation field, we estimate that the average annual demand for titanium alloys driven by military/commercial aircraft fuselage and engines from 2021 to 2030 is about 14,900 tons per year, with a value of about 5.
50 billion yuan per year
.
In the aerospace field, rocket launches hit a new high, missile models were mass-produced, and model development was transformed into a systematic and serialized actual combat, showing a high degree of prosperity
.
According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in 2020, the new expansion projects in the chemical PTA field will drive the largest demand for titanium materials
.
In 2020, the total revenue of titanium product-related business of the three listed companies in the domestic titanium industry is 6.
854 billion yuan, and the revenue of Russian VSMPO-AVISMA, a leading foreign enterprise, is as high as 8.
063 billion yuan.
.
In 2020, the foreign aviation market is weak, and the revenue of the two titanium giants has declined, while the revenue of titanium products of the three domestic listed companies has increased, reflecting the strong demand in the domestic market and the driving force of domestic substitution
.
Strong demand supports high capacity utilization rate, and takes the lead in breaking through bottlenecks through additional issuance and expansion
.
Due to its special physical properties, titanium alloys have high requirements for smelting, forging and pressing equipment and processes.
The special equipment required for capacity expansion requires a large investment at one time, and the cycle is generally more than 2 years
.
Baoti's capacity utilization rate in 2020 has reached 93.
97%.
By fully tapping the potential, the actual production capacity has exceeded the design capacity.
The company raised and invested in the project in October 2019 to fully expand the production capacity of titanium ingots and titanium materials
.
The company is the first to expand production among the three listed companies in the industry, and is expected to be the first to put the project into operation, and to enjoy the dividends of titanium demand driven by the rapid growth of the downstream equipment market
.
We adjust the profit forecast.
It is expected that the company's net profit attributable to the parent in 2021-2023 will be 5.
68/8.
6/1.
144 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 1.
19/1.
8/2.
39 yuan/share, corresponding to the closing price on February 10, 2022 PE is 42/ 27.
7/20.
9 times, maintaining the "prudent overweight" rating
.
Risk warning: Intensified competition in the aerospace field; rising raw material prices; capacity expansion and R&D investment may affect performance release in the short term
.
