Authoritative answer! Will pork prices rise again by the end of the year? Corn price

On October 21st, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a press conference on the economic situation in rural agriculture in the first three quarters of 2020. Wei Baigang, chief economist of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and director of the Development Planning Department, said at the
meeting that the grain harvest had been finalized and production was expected to reach an all-time high;
Tu: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs website Cong Linzhan Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Chief Economist, Director of the Development Planning Department Wei Baigang to inform you about the situation: Since this year, in the face of complex and severe domestic and foreign situations, agricultural and rural sectors at all levels in-depth implementation of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important instructions, important instructions spirit, the full implementation of the CPC Central Committee, the State Council decision-making deployment, effective In response to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, severe floods, major pests and diseases and other risk challenges, do everything possible to grasp the grain and pig production, do more to promote farmers' employment and income, and comprehensively promote the reform and development of agricultural and rural areas, agricultural and rural economy has maintained a sustained and steady trend.
The grain harvest has been finalized and production is expected to reach an all-time high, pig production has recovered better than expected, and the supply of "basket" products is adequate; the value added of the first sector in the first three quarters was 4812.3 billion yuan, up 2.3% YoY; and farmers' income was 12,297 yuan, up 1.6% YoY.
agricultural production situation is better, has become a prominent bright spot in the operation of the national economy, "three agriculture" ballast stone role is more prominent, for the stability of the overall economic and social development provides a strong support.
is a good harvest of grain throughout the year, and the structure of varieties is further optimized.
Conscientiously implement General Secretary Xi Jinping's series of important instructions and spirit of instructions on food and agricultural production, strengthen the implementation of responsibilities, distinguish between quarterly varieties of distribution guidance, effectively overcome the grasslands greedy nightingado, rice "two migration" pests, southern floods, typhoons in the northeast and other disasters, and make good efforts to improve food production.
grain and early rice double production, production reached 340.2 billion catties, an increase of 4.48 billion catties over the previous year, especially early rice area reversed the decline of 7 consecutive years.
harvest of autumn grain is close to 80% and the harvest is a certain one.
expected full-year grain production to hit a new record high, will remain above 1.3 trillion pounds for six consecutive years.
the planting structure continued to optimize, the proportion of high-quality special wheat area reached 35.8%, the area of high-quality rice further expanded, soybean area is expected to increase for 5 consecutive years.
is that pig production has recovered better than expected, and the supply of "basket" products is adequate.
Since this year, all over the serious implementation of pig production recovery support policies, accelerate the expansion of farmers can increase breeding, grasp the normal prevention and control of African swine fever, a strong impetus to the resumption of pig production, the first three quarters of the new production of 125,000 large-scale pig farms, 134,000 empty-bar-scale pig farms re-breeding.
the end of September, the country's pig storage column reached 370 million, up from 84% at the end of 2017, and the number of sows with 38.22 million sows, up from 86% at the end of 2017.
, beef and lamb reached 24.13 million tons, up 3.7% year-on-year.
with the rapid recovery of pig production and the increase in the number of columns, pork prices have fallen for 7 consecutive weeks, with the market price of 50.56 yuan per kilogram, 9.08 yuan lower than the peak in February this year.
vegetable production has increased steadily and prices have risen seasonally.
a large number of autumn fruits on the market, prices fell back to normal levels.
is that the Yangtze River ban on hunting and withdrawal has achieved phased results, and the green development of agriculture has been steadily advanced.
the ability of industry to bring poverty has been further enhanced, and farmers' income in poor areas has continued to grow.
is the full recovery of rural industries, returning to rural migrant workers to effectively broaden the employment channels.
is the rapid recovery of agricultural and rural investment, infrastructure short board accelerated.
: This year's natural disasters are generally heavy, but the autumn grain harvest after the disaster, please analyze the main reasons? Thank you.
: Thank you for your interest in food production.
food has always been the focus of attention, the whole year's grain is divided into three seasons, summer grain, early rice and autumn grain.
This year's summer grain, early rice has been a good harvest, respectively, an increase of 2.42 billion catties and 2.06 billion catties over the previous year, autumn grain is the main food production of the year, the current harvest has been nearly 80%, it can be said that the annual grain harvest is basically a certainty, can be stabilized for six consecutive years in more than 130 billion catties.
objectively speaking, this year is indeed a disaster-stricken year for agriculture, we have experienced a number of customs, we have been through a lot of feelings along the way.
Spring tillage preparation time passed the "new crown epidemic pass", the southern rice double rush passed the "flood pass", in the northeast autumn harvest before the "typhoon pass", but also passed the grassland greedy nightingado and other "sick insects pass", frequent disasters on food production is indeed facing multiple challenges.
It is not easy to get a good harvest this year, this is the result of the joint efforts of many forces, the most fundamental is the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee, the focus is good policy, people's efforts, it can be said that it is indeed Tian Dao pay.
you say that? There are three main aspects: First, the CPC Central Committee attaches great importance to.
This year, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council are particularly concerned about good food production, and General Secretary Xi Jinping has repeatedly given important instructions and instructions at key nodes of food and agricultural production, demanding that the opportunity be given to catch up with spring agricultural production, ensure a good harvest of summer grain, and strive for a good harvest of autumn grain.
Premier Li Keqiang has presided over several executive meetings of the State Council to study the deployment of agricultural production, and at key nodes of spring tillage production, the central government has issued the Guidelines for the Work of Current Spring Farming Production in a timely manner, and the regional classification has restored the order of agricultural production in spring.
, with the approval of the State Council, has set targets for food production to provincial and municipal governments, something it has not seen in years.
second, the policy is good.
continued to implement the minimum purchase price of rice and wheat, and the minimum purchase price of indica, which has been lowered for three consecutive years, has increased this year, releasing a signal that heavy farmers are grabbing grain.
to co-ordinate the integration of funds of more than 4 billion yuan to support double-season rice production.
the central government, under tight budget conditions, has also continued to maintain the overall stability of corn and soybean producer subsidy funds, timely allocation of major pest control funds and agricultural production and disaster relief funds.
, the strength of this year's policy support is also rare for many years.
third, people work hard.
Agricultural and rural departments at all levels adhere to the year-round disaster-resistant harvest, has deployed a good war outbreak to protect spring cultivation, flood protection "double grab", anti-typhoon loss reduction, disease prevention and insect protection harvest four battles, the grass of concern to everyone greedy nightingads, the deployment of grassland greedy nightingads "four resistance zones" and desert locusts "three lines of invasion of the line of defense", to minimize the harm of insects.
the masses of farmers also responded to the call of the central government to overcome the impact of the epidemic and disasters, timely planting, fertilization, medicine, harvest, hard work, to seize this year's harvest of grain.
a combination of factors, on the one hand, this year's increase in grain area, we have a preliminary estimate, this year due to the increase in grain area, the contribution to increased production rate of more than 50%.
the other hand, we have achieved a bumper harvest.
This year's disaster is relatively heavy, but also passed a number of clearances, the technical measures to reduce and increase production in place, coupled with most areas of the light and warm water matching is better, good for crop growth, especially this year's rainfall is more, dryland crops grow better, conducive to the improvement of yield.
our country is vast, disasters occur every year, and the disaster in some areas does not mean a reduction in national grain production.
The biggest impact on our country's food production is drought, year-round loss of food due to drought accounted for about half of the annual food loss, but this year we clearly feel that more rain, the impact of drought is obviously light, for food production overall or favorable.
thank you.
: My question is about pork prices, pork prices have fallen slightly for 7 consecutive weeks as pig production accelerates, but by the end of the year is also the peak season for pork consumption, will pork prices rise again? Thank you.
: Thank you for your question.
driven by the market and policies, since this year, the country's pig production continued to recover, pig farm farmers to supplement the column to increase the enthusiasm is very high.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs monitoring, by September this year can breed sow storage column has been 12 consecutive months of growth, pig storage column also increased for 8 consecutive months, especially in June and July this year, can breed sows and pig storage column has achieved year-on-year growth, which is two important time inflection point for pig production recovery.
's growth in August and September expanded further, with sows increasing by 28% year-on-year at the end of September and pig storage up 20.7% year-on-year, and in line with this trend, we are confident that we can achieve the goal of basically restoring pig production capacity to near-yearly levels throughout the year.
this year, with the resumption of pig production, the pork market as a whole showed an improvement in supply, price oscillations fell back.
from a production point of view, since March this year, pig out of the column for seven consecutive months month-on-month growth, indicating that the previous period of new production capacity is being released, capacity is becoming production.
same time, imports of pork also increased, with imports of 3.286 million tonnes in January-September, up 132.2% year-on-year, a trend confirmed by market prices.
February, pork market prices have generally shown an oscillating downward trend, especially since September, pork prices have been falling for seven consecutive weeks, there is no common rise in pork prices during the Mid-Autumn National Day in previous years.
price of pork at the national market last week has fallen back to 50.56 yuan per kilogram, more than nine yuan lower than the highest price in mid-February.
the pork supply situation will get better and better in the coming period.
Recently, we organized expert analysis and calculation, taking into account the recovery of pig production, pork imports, changes in consumer demand and other factors, next year's New Year's Day Spring Festival, the supply of pork will increase by about 30% YoY, the price will be lower than the same period last year, there will be no sharp price increases, can protect the people's bowls during the New Year there is no shortage of meat.
: We've noticed that corn prices have hit a near four-year high in recent days. Is this related to the fact that the main corn producing areas were hit by three typhoons from the end of August to the beginning of September, increasing the cost of acquisition, and how long is this expected to continue? Thank you.
: As you said, corn prices have generally been on the rise so far this year.
, prices began to fall as new corn from north and northeast China went on the market.
the National Day holiday after the price rose again, we are currently monitoring, Jilin parts of the listed purchase price is about 1.12 yuan per jin.
parts of Heilongjiang are about 1.07 yuan per kilogram.
we analyze the recent corn price increase, there are three main reasons: First, strong demand, multi-subject acquisition enthusiasm is relatively high.
mainly pig production accelerated recovery, the demand for feed corn increased significantly.
, corn starch, alcohol products are also on the rise, processing enterprises and traders generally optimistic about the corn market, price increases.
is the increase in costs, farmers sell in the hope of selling at a good price.
typhoon had a limited impact on corn production in the Northeast this year, but the corn in the affected areas collapsed and harvest costs increased.
according to our research, inverted corn per acre machine charges than the normal year increased by 100 yuan, serious inverted land can only rely on artificial harvesting.
affected by rising costs, farmers want to wait for prices to rise a little more before selling.
is capital speculation, price bullish expectations increase.
affected by the global outbreak of new crown pneumonia, speculative capital at home and abroad is showing signs of heating up speculation in the food market.
, the price of international and domestic corn futures rose more obviously, traders and processing enterprises bullish expectations increased, resulting in a joint rise in spot prices.
general view, corn price increase is a recovery since the reform of the storage system, especially in the case of increased production costs, the appropriate price increase has a certain rationality.
we judge that this year's corn harvest has been finalized, the early auction of corn has been listed.
addition to some stocks of rice wheat can also be used for feed replacement, supply is guaranteed, corn prices continue to rise lack support.
: My problem is that autumn and winter are a time when animal diseases are more and more likely.
what is the current situation in the prevention and control of swine fever in Africa? What are the next steps for the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in this regard? Thank you.
: So far this year, a total of 18 outbreaks of African swine fever have been reported in nine provinces, including 17 in the family pig and 1 in the wild boar.
With the implementation of normal measures for the prevention and control of swine fever in Africa, the level of biosecurity protection of farm farmers, especially large-scale farmers, has been greatly improved, the risks of breeding, transportation, slaughtering and other links have been effectively controlled, and the number of outbreak reports, reports and harmless treatment has been greatly reduced.
comprehensive information, the current situation of swine fever epidemic in Africa is generally stable, indicating that the normal prevention and control work has achieved phased results.
but also to see that the African swine fever virus has been planted in our country, the pollution surface is larger, the outbreak of the situation will be in place for a longer period of time.
With the autumn and winter temperatures lower, cleaning and disinfection effect may be affected, coupled with the frequent transfer of pigs, piglets, the risk of outbreak and spread further increased, if the implementation of epidemic prevention measures are not in place, do not rule out the occurrence of regional epidemics, affecting or even blocking pig production to speed up the recovery process.
next step, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will earnestly implement the central decision-making and deployment, continue to urge and guide all regions to do a good job of normal prevention and control of African swine fever, to ensure that the epidemic is stable and not rebound.
First, to guide all regions to strengthen normal prevention and control, strict breeding, transportation, slaughtering and harmless treatment and other aspects of supervision, and effectively achieve early detection, early reporting, early disposal, and strive to minimize the impact of African swine fever.
is to insist on the implementation of entry sampling monitoring, and constantly improve sampling measures, and urge farmers to guide the implementation of biosecurity management measures.
is combined with the autumn prevention inspection carried out in November, urging all regions to fully implement the existing prevention and control measures.
fourth is to speed up the construction of African swine plague-free community, and strive to the end of the year