Attention: long and empty grain market in July and August

Introduction: according to the analysis of the national grain and oil information center, July and August will be the key period to decide whether the domestic grain price will rise or fall If some indexes of this stage can support the price rise, the grain price is expected to reach a new level; otherwise, the domestic grain price will enter a relatively low operation period with a long duration January and July are the key periods for the domestic macroeconomic trend The central government issued a series of macro policies in April, and the positive and negative effects they have formed in the market will appear in this period According to relevant reports, the price index in the next few months will be affected by the fall in the prices of grain, oil and food, and the pressure of inflation will gradually ease Some analysts believe that if the price index continues to decline, the economy is likely to change from inflation to deflation within the year In this case, the consumption demand of the whole society will decline, and the weak demand will further reduce the prices and food prices February and July are the peak of domestic wheat purchase, which is the key period to determine the price trend of wheat in the year The purchase price of xialiang wheat was lower than expected after opening the scale, and there was no rush purchase situation of grain consuming enterprises and storage enterprises in the market If the purchasing situation of summer grain is still unsatisfactory in July and August, it will further affect the enthusiasm of purchasing enterprises and traders, and the wheat price will be difficult to rise due to the lack of purchasing volume In this year's expectation that the total grain output in China will recover, the price changes of summer grain will have an impact on the prices of early rice and autumn grain March and July are the domestic early rice markets If the situation of wheat purchase is still not optimistic during this period, it will first affect the opening price of early rice and the mentality of market purchase and sale At the same time, since the minimum purchase price of early rice has been determined throughout the year, if the early rice starts disadvantageously, it will also affect the price of autumn grain April and July are the key periods for the formation of autumn grain output, for the recovery of grain output in the year, for the total grain supply in the year, and for the domestic grain supply and demand in the next year July and August are the harvest time of spring wheat, the heading time of mid rice and maize, and the key stage of autumn grain yield In the past few years, disastrous weather has occurred in July and August For example, in July and August 2003, serious drought occurred in Northeast China, resulting in a sharp reduction of local spring wheat production; in North China Huanghuai region, there were also large-scale drought and small-scale flood disasters in August and September last year, which affected crop yield and quality May and July are the expected recovery period of domestic breeding industry During the year, the breeding industry experienced multiple adverse factors such as rising raw material prices and animal epidemics The output and production efficiency of breeding products have been depressed in the past few months Since March, the market has been looking forward to the recovery of the breeding industry, and hopes to drive the prices of soybean meal and corn in the market through the recovery of the breeding industry At present, the market people generally expect that the production and benefit of the breeding industry is expected to recover in July and August At that time, the price of corn and soybean meal will rise, and the overall grain price of the market will be driven by the above two varieties If the breeding industry fails to recover at this time, or the degree of recovery is lower than expected, so that the price of corn and soybean meal cannot be effectively promoted, the confidence of suppliers in the market will be completely defeated, and the negative atmosphere will comprehensively control the market, thus affecting the grain market trend in the second half of the year.