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A few days ago, Japanese pharmaceutical company Astellas announced the company's new five-year strategic plan and put forward an optimistic performance target for the next five years
.
The strategic plan revealed that by March 2026, Astellas expects its sales to jump from 1.
25 trillion yen in the fiscal year ending in March to approximately 1.
8 trillion yen (approximately 16.
5 billion U.
S.
dollars)
.
Compared with the blueprint outlined in 2018, the company has almost increased its peak sales estimates for all its "strategic products", which the company had previously expected to reach 1.
Jefferies analyst Stephen Barker pointed out in an investor memo on Wednesday that according to the report, the sales target annual growth rate is 8%, which is 10% higher than the expected consensus.
It is worth noting that Barker has a "positive impression" of the plan, and Said that the completion of these achievements is "realistic"
.
The prostate cancer drug Xtandi, which is cooperating with Pfizer, is Astellas’ highest source of revenue.
After achieving a year-on-year growth of 14.
6%, the drug brought Astellas 458.
4 billion yen (4.
21 billion) to Astellas in fiscal 2020.
U.
S.
dollars)
.
In the updated plan, Astellas predicts that Xtandi's peak sales will reach 600 billion yen to 700 billion yen
Barker said that it’s not surprising that Xtandi’s future performance figures have increased by a full 200 billion yen due to its outstanding performance since its listing
.
In May, Xtandi received good news one after another in the European Union and the United Kingdom
In addition to existing uses, Astellas and Pfizer also plan to use Xtandi for non-metastatic castration-sensitive diseases in 2022, which may add an additional 10,000 American patients to their potential market
.
But when Xtandi loses its patent protection around 2027, it also brings a huge risk to Astellas
In this regard, Astellas already has a solution.
In this plan, Astellas outlined its 500 billion yen investment in early "key areas" projects, and stated that it can make up for Xtandi's patent rights by fiscal 2030.
The revenue gap caused by the loss
.
At the same time, investors also have high hopes for the antibody-conjugated drug (ADC) Padcev, which Astellas and Seagen have cooperated with
In December 2019, Padcev received accelerated approval from the U.
S.
FDA for the treatment of patients with locally advanced or metastatic urothelial cancer (UC).
Padcev also became the first ADC drug approved for the treatment of UC
.
In May, Astellas announced the latest positive results of two clinical trials of Paddev combined with anti-PD-1 therapy Keytruda for the treatment of urothelial carcinoma (UC).
In 2020, the FDA approved a breakthrough treatment plan for the combination of PADCEV and KEYTRUDA to treat patients with unresectable locally advanced or metastatic urothelial cancer.
These patients are not suitable for first-line treatment with cisplatin-based chemotherapy
.
Astellas now predicts that the drug's peak sales will reach 300 billion to 400 billion yen
In addition, Astellas also raised its maximum sales forecast for non-oxazoline drugs for women's health care products to approximately 300 billion yen to 500 billion yen
.
Earlier this year, Astellas announced the positive results of two phase 3 clinical trials of two non-hormonal drugs in moderate to severe vasomotor symptoms or menopausal-related hot flashes
Other drugs in Astellas’ strategic product portfolio include targeted leukemia therapy Xospata and FibroGen’s anemia medicine Evrenzo (only in the Japanese market), and a gene therapy called resamirigene bilparvovec
.
Overall, Barker believes that Astellas has an "attractive valuation" for investors
.
The company's current corporate value to revenue ratio is 8.
5 times, which is lower than the average level of approximately 15 times for Japanese biopharmaceutical companies
.
Reference source: Xtandi raise, Padcev lift and a women's health surprise: Astellasoutlines $17B 5-year plan