Analysis report of edible oil in China Grain and oil market in May 2004

Introduction: the edible oil market continues to weaken this month In this month, the national average price of grade II peanut oil is 11589 yuan / ton, down 0.19% from the previous month; the national average price of grade II rapeseed oil is 7173 yuan / ton, down 0.1.70% from the previous month; the average price of grade II soybean oil is 7309 yuan / ton, down 2.29% from the previous month First, soybean oil prices continue to fall, and the situation will not change in the short term First, domestic soybean oil demand has been depressed in recent months Second, China's rapeseed harvest will correspondingly increase the supply of rapeseed oil, which will restrain the price of soybean oil Third, so far this year, soybean oil and palm oil imports have reached the highest level in history Fourth, soybean oil prices in the international market fell sharply 2 This year, the price of new rapeseed is higher and lower This month, new rapeseed has been listed in most regions Compared with last year, the market of new rapeseed acquisition is relatively calm The main reason is that the price of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is affected by the price drop of soybean meal and soybean oil, and the supply of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil will increase correspondingly, the price will fall, and the future market is still weak, and the acquirers are mostly waiting From the current point of view, in most regions, the price of new rapeseed is going from high to low, except for the sharp rise and fall of the market in different regions due to the purchasing strategy of oil plants At the same time, farmers are reluctant to sell because of the high purchase price of rapeseed in recent two years, and the quality of new rapeseed this year is better than that of previous years Therefore, if it is difficult to form a scale for a long time to purchase a processing plant, it is not ruled out that the processing plant may increase the purchase price to increase the purchase volume 3 The price of palm oil is bearish in the near future and optimistic in the long term First, it is affected by the price drop of other oil products such as soybean oil; second, the supply of palm oil has increased significantly, which includes the import of mixed oil in addition to the large-scale increase in the quota year-on-year A mixture of palm oil and palm kernel oil, whose import is not subject to quotas and whose price is low The operation of this variety has objectively become a way for palm oil import to evade quota management A large number of imports have disturbed the normal import order of palm oil in China At the same time, it should be seen that palm oil and other oil products have a large price difference, and their resistance to falling is also strong 4 The import volume has increased substantially year on year The domestic edible oil market is oversupplied At present, the domestic soybean oil and palm oil prices have fallen Peanut oil and rapeseed oil have also declined, which is inevitably related to the current increase in the import volume of soybean oil and palm oil According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China imported 234000 tons of soybean oil in April, 997400 tons of soybean oil from January to April, a year-on-year increase of 218%; China imported 384000 tons of palm oil in April, 10856 tons of palm oil from January to April, a year-on-year increase of 19.7% 5 The oil price in the international market has fallen rapidly The price of soybean oil and palm oil in the international market has fallen rapidly since April By the end of May, the C & F price of imported soybean oil has fallen to 520 US dollars / ton, down 180-200 US dollars / ton compared with that before January The FOB price of 24 degree refined palm oil in Malaysia has fallen to 440 US dollars / ton, down 100-110 US dollars / ton compared with that before January Such a large drop undoubtedly brings great pressure on domestic processing enterprises and import traders In conclusion, due to the temporary oversupply of domestic edible oil as a whole, the overall market of domestic edible oil in the short term is still stable and tends to decline, the price of soybean oil has a deep decline, while the decline of other varieties is relatively small