Analysis on the trend of rice price in China

Introduction: looking forward to the future, the price of Indica Rice in the South should be stable and moderate rise, while that of Japonica Rice in the North should be stable and moderate decline First of all, the imbalance of supply and demand will exist for a short time due to seasonal factors At present and for some time to come, it is spring ploughing and spring sowing, and it is also a period of green and yellow, the stock of rice and the amount of rice on the market are constantly decreasing, farmers will reduce the sales of surplus grain due to busy farming, but farmers will also increase the amount of selling on the market due to the need of purchasing agricultural materials for spring ploughing and spring sowing, while some farmers will purchase grain supplement rations Ywu is followed by rice production which has been greatly reduced year by year The shortage of production and the gradual balance of supply and demand are obvious, but the total supply is not a problem In 2002, China's rice planting area was about 28.442 million hectares, a decrease of 3.9% over the previous year The total output is expected to be 175.73 million tons, a decrease of 1.85 million tons over the previous year As far as Guangxi is concerned, the last year's output was reduced by about 400000-600000 tons, a decrease of about 3% In 2003, with the continuous adjustment of agricultural production structure in China, it is expected that the rice planting area will continue to decrease, and the yield will continue to show a downward trend As far as Guangxi is concerned, since the autonomous region has made it clear that it is necessary to appropriately reduce the planting area this year, the planned planting area is 51.2 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 80000 mu; the planned total output is 16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 400000 tons Among them, the planned planting area of rice is 31 million mu, slightly less than the same period last year The above situation is favorable for the price rise However, the domestic rice supply is still sufficient, and the sharp price rise lacks strong support Once again, the inventory of ywu continues to decrease significantly, and the pressure of grain aging decreases but still exists On the one hand, after half a year's digestion, the stock of early rice has been basically consumed At present, there are few stored grains in the hands of farmers for sale, and the stock of early rice and late rice in grain storage enterprises is not much After two or three years of processing and selling, most of the stored grains and rice in the sales area or even in some production areas have been processed At present, most of the overstocked grains and rice are mainly concentrated in the northeast, and some varieties even tend to be Balanced and slightly tense, market pressure reduced However, the aging phenomenon of rice is still prominent, and the pressure to deal with the aged grain is still great Since the end of last year, nearly 2.3 million tons of aged grain have been sold by auction or bidding in various parts of China In March, Hunan, Jiangxi and other provinces and regions began to sell aged grain, with a total volume of about 300000 tons At the same time, the rice stock in the northeast region is still high At present, there are about 1 million aged rice waiting to be processed in Jilin Province alone The treatment of aged grain has a great impact on the rice market price, which affects the recovery of rice market price The fourth is the lack of high-quality rice and the strong demand will effectively improve the overall price level of rice However, the demand for high-quality rice in future festivals is not as good as that in the Spring Festival Currently, the price of high-quality rice has been high, and the possibility of substantial increase is small Guangxi will expand the area of high-quality rice this year, with a planned planting area of 21.7 million mu, accounting for 70% of the rice planting area, a year-on-year increase of 4 percentage points, which will have a certain expected effect on the price of high-quality rice The fifth is that the demand of some grain deficient farmers for grain purchase, grain for forest supply and rural feed grain has increased, which will effectively expand the consumption of rice, but rice is mainly used as rations, and the stimulating factors of demand are not obvious The sixth aspect of ywu is the import and export It is expected that the export will maintain a high level of about 2 million tons last year, but the import will increase a lot due to the impact of Thailand's export obstruction The seventh is that the international market has recovered due to the decline of rice stocks and the lowest price in 15 years Ywu   Ywu