Analysis on the trend of international oil and grease market in the near future

Introduction: in the past six weeks, the market prices of soybean and other oilseeds, as well as most vegetable oil and oil meal, have maintained a relatively narrow range trend, according to an analysis published by the German Hamburg industry special oil world on Friday Prices have slipped from their highs in mid March, but are still well above their market position in early February At present, many consumers are still reluctant to make a large number of purchases, and they believe that due to the current large global soybean and rapeseed and palm oil stocks, prices will continue to be under pressure In the soybean market, some farmers in North and South America still have a strong mentality of reluctant to sell, they are not satisfied with the current market price level This year, Brazil's soybean production has been reduced for the second year In addition, due to the continuous high cost of Brazil's soybean cultivation, the income of growers is still decreasing In this context, Brazilian farmers may still reduce soybean planting area in 2005 / 06 On the other hand, a source from Argentina said that in order to improve the income of farmers, the Argentine government may reduce export tariffs But the news has not been officially confirmed According to the news from oil world, the Argentine government is unlikely to take such measures At present, the supply of aged oilseeds is still a negative factor, but its impact has been less than two or three months ago It is estimated that the global oil seed ending inventory in this market year is still as high as about 63.5 million tons, accounting for 17.9% of the annual consumption level of this market, while the inventory in 2003 / 04 accounts for 14.4% of the consumption level, and that in 2002 / 03 is 16.6% The current market forecast for the supply of oilseeds is optimistic, but there are still great risks Crops in the northern hemisphere will enter a critical stage of growth, and price fluctuations will be more severe in June and July In fact, sufficient supply side negative factors may have been absorbed by the market Because of this, the weather change in the northern hemisphere is very important for the market We are about to enter a market dominated by climate change If there is any sign of crop reduction in the next 4-8 weeks, then the market price may rise significantly In this period of time, the planting of crops in the northern hemisphere is going on normally The planting progress of crops in the United States and Canada is slightly behind that of last year, but the range is not large, so there is no obvious supporting factor for the current increase in soybean and soybean product prices However, olive oil production prospects have a positive impact on the market Oil world has pointed out in its previous report that the Iberian Peninsula has suffered from a serious drought, and its olive oil production reduction has become a foregone conclusion As the largest producer and exporter of olive oil in the world, Spain's production reduction is also on the way Consumers are increasingly worried about the supply side of the market They hope that Italy, Greece and other domestic suppliers will increase, at least to some extent, to alleviate the impact of the 300000-400000 ton production reduction in Spain The news from Australia is that due to the drought in Australia, the winter crop planting cannot be completed as scheduled, and the oil seed production is expected to drop 400000 tons in 2005 / 06 The growth of rapeseed crops in Germany has improved after recent rainfall It is estimated that the annual output of rapeseed in 25 EU countries in this market is 14 million tons, compared with 15.3 million tons in the previous year Part of the reduction will be made up by up to 1.4 million tons of transfer stock as of the end of June In India, the time and distribution of southwest monsoon rainfall are of great concern According to this week's forecast, rainfall in July will be 12% lower than normal However, as India has just entered the monsoon rainfall season, the current forecast is not accurate In addition to India and Europe, the United States, Canada, China, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines are also areas of concern