Analysis on the trend of grain price in 2005 (2)

Introduction: grain prices will slow down this year, and the overall level is still higher than last year From the perspective of grain production and demand, grain policy and other aspects, if there are no major emergencies and major natural disasters, the growth rate of grain price will gradually slow down this year, and the trend of grain price throughout the year will mainly slow down, with little possibility of big ups and downs, but the overall level of grain price will still be higher than that of the same period last year There will be a certain increase in the price of rice, and even in the period before the new grain goes on the market this year, the price of rice will not have a big increase From the perspective of macro grain policy, all regions will continue to strengthen the implementation in the following three aspects this year: first, reduce the agricultural tax rate, implement direct subsidies to grain farmers, and at the same time, issue good seed subsidies to farmers to grow high-quality grain varieties, so as to increase farmers' income; second, fully open the grain purchase market, so as to invigorate the grain circulation; third, implement the minimum purchase price system for rice To protect the income of grain farmers For Jiangxi, a major grain producing province, the biggest variable in grain policy is that although the system of minimum purchase price for rice was established last year, it has not been implemented yet This year, Jiangxi is likely to start the system of minimum purchase price for rice Once the minimum purchase price system of rice is implemented, it may have the following impacts on the grain circulation market of Jiangxi Province: first, the state designated purchasing enterprises only purchase conventional rice in strict accordance with the price and quality stipulated in the system, but not high-quality rice Since this part of grain is subsidized by state expenses and interest after purchase, the more it is collected, the less circulation in the market, which is conducive to stabilizing the current market price However, due to the restrictions of acquisition point, variety, quality and national acquisition plan, it is estimated that the acquisition volume will not exceed one quarter of the commodity volume Second, the state-owned grain purchase and sale enterprises not designated by the state open to purchase the surplus grain of farmers at the lowest purchase price according to the requirements of the local government Because this part of grain can not enjoy the subsidies of state expenses and interest after purchase, and the local finance is unable to give subsidies, forcing enterprises to adopt more flexible methods to control the purchase price and quality standards, and adopt the method of selling while receiving to ensure low profit operation As a result, the price of grain in the market will be restrained Due to the wide range of state-owned grain purchase and sale enterprises and the strong government regulation ability, it is estimated that the purchase volume will exceed one-half of the commodity volume Third, due to the lack of policy restrictions on other operating enterprises, the acquisition mainly depends on the market situation When the market conditions are good, they will actively purchase the varieties in short supply; when the market conditions are bad, they will leave the market to wait and see In order to maintain market share, large-scale processing enterprises will insist on purchasing all the year round, but the main varieties to be purchased are high-quality rice, and the purchase price is determined by the purchase price of state-owned grain purchase and sale enterprises It should be noted that a large number of small enterprises and business operators may go to areas where there is no national designated purchasing point, purchase the surplus grain of farmers at a price lower than the minimum purchasing price and purchasing standard set by the state, and then sell it to the national designated purchasing point at the minimum purchasing price Although their management behavior accelerates the fluctuation of market price, it is conducive to invigorating grain circulation and creating market profit opportunities Due to the steady increase of grain output and the further implementation of grain policy, if there is no major emergency, it is expected that the trend of grain price this year will continue the downward trend in the fourth quarter of last year In addition to the above factors, the main reasons are as follows: first, farmers have plenty of surplus food in their hands Last year, farmers in Jiangxi Province were reluctant to wait and see for the sale of many surplus grains, which were not sold in time It is estimated that by the time the new grains are listed this year, about 1.4 million tons of surplus grains will be sold in Jiangxi Province Second, it is the time for a large number of national grain reserves to rotate, and the rotation will be accelerated this year According to the state grain storage rotation method, it is at this time of each year that all reserve units organize the centralized rotation period of grain storage according to the rotation plan of the new year, and it is expected that the rotation volume this year will be larger than last year This year, the rotation plan of grain reserves in the whole province will increase over the previous year, and the number of rotation will also increase At the same time, in order to digest the high price of new grain collected last year, the reserve companies will speed up the rotation process In addition, considering that the minimum purchase price system may be launched this year, and the new grain storage price of the state grain storage directly under the Treasury can be controlled, they will also take the first out and then in approach to speed up the rotation of grain reserves Third, at present, food prices are still at the upper limit of a reasonable range, and there is no room for rising The current level of grain price was formed after the state's macro-control fell back when the grain price soared last year This level is acceptable to farmers, consumers and the government It is a reasonable price The annual growth rate of the price index determined by the state this year is 4% Due to the large increase in the price level of domestic oil, steel, energy and other materials in the near future, in order to control the excessive rise of the price index, the state will strengthen the regulation of the price of grain, oil and food Fourth, the low price of corn has restrained the market demand for aged rice At present, the wholesale price of corn market in Jiangxi Province is 1330 yuan / ton, which is higher than the previous period, and still down about 5% compared with the same period of last year Although the price of corn in the market has rebounded recently, in terms of the total amount, it is difficult for the price to go higher because of the large increase of corn output last year and the sufficient stock of corn in the market The low price of corn directly restricts the demand of feed processing for rice and affects its price rise Fifth, while increasing support for grain production, some major grain producing provinces will further improve the regulation system of local grain reserves For example, Hubei Province will establish a local grain reserve of 1.8 billion jin this year; establish a mechanism to balance the total supply and demand of grain and a market monitoring and early warning mechanism, and implement a regular release system for information such as grain production, consumption, inventory and price From a national perspective, due to last year's abundant grain harvest, food prices have been in a flat stage of high growth, and it is impossible for food prices in 2005 to increase by 26.4% as high as in 2004 According to the statistical report released by the National Bureau of statistics, the national grain price rose 14.2% year on year in January this year, and the trend of grain price falling has begun to show At present, due to the fact that domestic grain production and demand have not been balanced, the state will continue to implement the policy of supporting grain production this year Driven by the factors of rising grain prices, farmers' enthusiasm for grain production will continue to increase However, due to the limitation of cultivated land area, the growth rate of grain sown area is relatively limited If the climate conditions are favorable, it is expected that the grain output in 2005 will be slightly higher than that in 2004, but it will be difficult to achieve 480 million tons On the other hand, even though the grain production has increased this year, the gap between production and demand continues to decrease, and the relationship between supply and demand has eased, it is still difficult to achieve the balance of grain production and demand throughout the year According to the grain demand of 494 million tons and the output of 480 million tons, there is still a gap of 14 million tons of grain production and demand in the whole year, which needs to be made up by inventory adjustment and increasing foreign grain imports This determines that there will not be a significant decline in food prices this year However, as the output continues to increase and the gap between production and demand shrinks, grain prices will not rise significantly in general.