Analysis on the trend of egg price in China from September 2003 to now

Introduction: new page 1 1 1 The price trend MFU's egg price in September showed a trend of growing first and then falling, rising from 4.6 yuan / kg in the first ten days to 4.76 yuan / kg, falling back to 4.6 yuan / kg at the beginning of the month in the middle of the year, and remained around 4.6 yuan / kg until the end of September After MFU entered October, the price of eggs began to rise steadily After about 50 days of rising, the national average price of eggs reached a peak of 5.2 yuan / kg in mid November, up about 13% After the middle of November, it began to fall slightly, but still maintained a high price above 5.0 yuan / kg, and rebounded slightly in recent days MFU 2 Trend analysis In the first ten days of September, the main reason for the increase in egg prices was that "SARS" led to a decrease in the stock of laying hens, and the market demand after "SARS" Rose relative to that during "SARS", resulting in a relative short-term shortage of egg supply relative to the market demand Subsequently, the price rise that should have occurred during the national day did not appear The main reason was that the long holiday of this year's National Day was taken As a result, China's tourism industry has been hit hard by SARS, resulting in relatively weak market demand However, after MFU entered October, the market began to recover At the same time, the nationwide "price increase of agricultural products" caused a certain increase in soybean meal, corn and other feed materials and compound feed The increase in feed cost led to the increase in egg production costs, which led to the increase in egg prices However, the root cause of this 50 day egg price increase is not the increase of feed material and compound feed price, but the sharp increase of market demand after SARS After entering November, the price of corn and soybean meal fell, while the price of egg continued to rise Until the middle of November, the price hit 5.2 yuan / kg, still hovering at a high price above 5.0 yuan / kg, and recently rebounded slightly, which shows that "market demand" is the real "lever" behind the price rise of egg MFU 2 Future market outlook: with the approaching of "Spring Festival", the market demand will continue to rise According to the law of market changes in previous years, it can be seen that the market trend is generally stable in December and January of the next year, and the possibility of large fluctuations is small As far as the current market situation is concerned, the national egg price will remain around 5.0 yuan / kg in December and January 2004, and the market is still optimistic And in late January 2004, around the Spring Festival, the national egg price is likely to rise again MfU