Analysis on the trend of domestic wheat market in the later period

Introduction: 1 The supply of new winter wheat with better quality is less, which plays a supporting role in the later wheat price In order to sell wheat at a favorable price this year, the protection prices set by the main production areas are all low However, due to the serious yield reduction and poor quality of winter wheat, the market price has increased At the end of July, the price of the second-class hard white wheat board in Anyang, Henan Province was 1100 yuan / ton, and that in Caoxian, Shandong Province was 1140 yuan / ton The price of Shanxi Yuncheng second-class hard white wheat board is 1150 yuan / ton The low purchase price and the rise of market price make farmers reluctant to sell, which will play a supporting role in the later wheat price Wzg 2 and winter wheat reduced their production for three consecutive years, and their stocks decreased In 2000 and 2001, the wheat output was 99.6 million tons and 93.9 million tons respectively This year, the wheat output is expected to be about 88 million tons, the lowest level in the past 14 years In recent years, China's wheat consumption is about 118 million tons, which is larger than the production, so that the wheat inventory is reduced It is estimated that China's wheat stock this year will be about 30 million tons Although the stock is huge, it will be lower than last year, which will support the market price of wheat Wzg III there is still a lot of pressure from all over the country Due to the high inventory base of wheat producing provinces and the pressure of financial subsidies, all regions have been taking measures to reduce the inventory and promote sales, and the task of reducing the inventory and promoting sales in the later stage is still large This year, the state plans to rotate 13.36 million tons of old wheat with new wheat, which will undoubtedly affect the work of pressing the storage At the same time, in order to reduce the impact of the increase of Wheat Import on the domestic market after China's accession to the WTO, many provinces have formulated export plans for imported wheat The number of export of imported wheat will continue to increase in the year, so as to increase the supply of wheat market, so that the wheat market is restrained to some extent Wzg IV the number of wheat imports is expected to increase According to the statistics of the customs, from January to June this year, China imported 438000 tons of wheat, more than double the same period last year Although according to the WTO agreement, China's actual wheat import this year is unlikely to reach 2 million tons, and the number of wheat that can enter the market is very small, but it will still cause certain pressure on people's psychology Wzg to sum up, China's wheat production has been reduced for three consecutive years, which has led to a huge decrease in wheat inventory This year, in the case of wheat production reduction and poor quality, the low protection price and the high market price have formed certain psychological pressure on the market, and may seek import support Expected wheat wzg wzg