Analysis on the trend of domestic grain market in the first half of the year

Introduction: in the first half of this year, the trend of domestic food prices can be divided into two stages, with the first and middle of April as the watershed Before, domestic prices showed a steady rise, and then prices fell The relevant persons of the State Grain and Oil Information Center analyzed the causes of the fluctuation of grain price -- the basic factors driving the rise of grain prices before April First of all, the reduction of grain production causes supply worries, and the gradual change of supply and demand pattern promotes the rise of grain prices In 2003, China's corn output was estimated to be 116 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% Affected by the reduction of production, the gap between supply and demand of corn in 2003 / 04 reached 9.41 million tons, which is the fourth consecutive year since 2000 / 01 Therefore, it is necessary to adjust the inventory of last year In 2003, China's rice output is estimated to be 165 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, not only the sixth consecutive year of production reduction since 1998, but also the fourth consecutive year since 2000 / 01 because the current year's output can not meet the demand, so it is necessary to adjust inventory to achieve the total supply and demand balance In 2003, China's wheat output was estimated to be 86.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, the fourth consecutive year since 1999 The wheat market also has the problem that the current year's output can't meet the current year's demand, so we need to adjust the inventory to make up the supply gap Second, the economy showed signs of overheating in the first quarter, causing inflation concerns and driving up food prices Since the second half of 2003, the economic circle has begun to discuss "whether the domestic economy is overheated" and "whether there is inflationary pressure on domestic prices" According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the economy grew by 9.7% year-on-year in the first quarter, maintaining a rapid growth momentum In the same period, the total level of consumer price of the whole country rose by 2.8% year on year, 2.3 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year Among them, food prices rose by 7.1%, driving the overall price level up by 2.4 percentage points, and the price level rose for 15 consecutive months Thirdly, the increase of grain price stimulates the market's interest in purchasing, and the contradiction between supply and demand is aggravated by the large amount of purchasing activities of the demander and the behavior of the supplier's hoarding and waiting for price In the process of price rising, grain consuming units such as rice processing enterprises, feed factories, starch processing enterprises, etc all increased the proportion of raw material inventory of enterprises to varying degrees At the same time, the purchase enthusiasm of state-owned grain storage enterprises and traders in the market is also rising Some enterprises seldom engaged in grain purchase activities have also participated in the market, which not only aggravates the competitive purchase situation in the market, but also worsens the regional imbalance of market supply and demand caused by hoarding and curiosities, which has played a significant role in promoting the price rise Fourth, the poor logistics aggravates the regional imbalance of food supply in the production and marketing areas, and promotes the price rise The shortage of railway transportation capacity restricts the quantity of rice and corn transported abroad in Northeast China, thus aggravating the regional imbalance of grain supply in the market -- the basic factors contributing to the decline of food prices since the first and middle of April first, the introduction of macroeconomic control measures, and the gradual easing of domestic inflation pressure At the beginning of April, the government introduced a series of measures, including increasing bank reserves and strengthening credit management, in order to curb the overheated investment in some industries and prevent inflation After the introduction of these measures, the growth rate of investment in real estate and other industries dropped significantly, and the price rise of grain and steel slowed down and gradually fell Secondly, the government adjusts the logistics link to solve the regional imbalance of food supply The new round of price increase in February this year was led by rice The sharp rise of rice price is closely related to the concentration of grain storage enterprises and traders in East and South China to purchase in Northeast China The centralized purchasing behavior in the sales area worsens the problem of railway transportation capacity in Northeast China and aggravates the regional imbalance of rice supply In response to this problem, the government adjusted the structure of freight transport capacity in Northeast China in a timely manner, requiring the railway departments in Northeast China to ensure a considerable number of rice husks to enter the customs every day, so as to relieve the supply pressure in the sales area Traders reported that during this period, rice carts can basically be delivered "as you need, as you please" After the adjustment of transportation capacity, the regional imbalance of rice supply has been basically solved, and the market price has also fallen with the change of supply situation from tension to relaxation; thirdly, the tense psychological expectation of both sides of market purchase and sale has changed with the change of supply environment In the process of price rising, both the buyer and the seller in the market basically have tight expectations on the future supply situation, and hold a bullish expectation on the price, so they are nervous in the sales and purchase After the market supply environment changed from tense to loose, the price began to fall, and the mentality of both buyers and sellers in the market changed from tense to peaceful The supply side changed from grain hoarding and waiting for price to active selling, while the demand side changed from active purchasing to holding money and waiting.