Analysis of recent corn market trends

Introduction: looking back on the market price of corn in the same period last year, it is the time to be proud that the average vehicle plate price in the production area of Jilin is about 1100 yuan / ton, while the market price in the sales area is generally stable between 1260-1300 yuan / ton Looking at the current corn price this year, the highest price of Jilin car board is only 970-980 yuan / ton, while the average price in the southern sales area is 1110-1130 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan from last year What's the reason for this year's corn price is not as brilliant as yesterday's, can this year's corn price still make a difference? It has become a question and focus in people's mind The main reason why the price of corn didn't rise much this year is the negative influence of China's entry into WTO China's accession to the WTO means that China's market will be open to the outside world, will be in line with the internationalization, and will enter the new market economic rules Affected by this, China cancelled export subsidies and issued import quotas At the same time, in order to encourage exports, the state reduced railway funds and value-added taxes In order to reduce inventory pressure, grain auction activities were successively held This series of policy factors made this year's price of jade rice unable to soar, and the recent seasonal recovery, the increase is not very large It is predicted that from the second half of the year to the time before the new grain goes on the market, the market price of corn in China will rise slowly and steadily The sharp rise may be generated under the guidance of policy, otherwise there will be no big fluctuation At the same time, there are also negative factors, such as the implementation of import quotas, which are analyzed as follows: 1 Supply and demand At present, China's corn demand continues to grow, and the inventory is on the decline However, the sales of "a" grain also provides space for the rotation of new and old grain in different regions A large number of low-price and non optimal grain sources fill the corn market, making it appear that the supply is slightly higher than the demand It is estimated that the supply and consumption of corn market in China will reach 114.5 million tons and 121.2 million tons in 2001 / 02 (October to September) Among them, feed corn consumption was 87 million tons, down 2 million tons compared with the previous year, mainly due to the recession of the breeding industry this year, the purchase quantity decreased generally, and new wheat was used to replace part of corn feed; industrial corn consumption was 10.5 million tons, up 2 million tons compared with last year 2 Import and export Since last year, China's corn market has been limited in import and export From January to May this year, China's total export of corn was 3.23 million tons, down 1.79 million tons from the same period last year, but there is still a large demand for export in the future It is estimated that the total export volume will be 6 million tons South Korea is the main foreign buyer of Chinese corn Although there is "foot-and-mouth disease" in South Korea, the impact on China's corn export is not great, and South Korea is still purchasing Chinese corn The U.S Department of Agriculture estimates that the demand for feed corn in South Korea will be about 6.9 million tons in 2002 / 03 At present, the FOB price of China's corn export is about 96-97 US dollars / ton, and the CNF price to South Korea is about 100-101 US dollars / ton, which is much lower than that from the United States to South Korea Recently, the price of corn in the United States has risen, and its competitiveness with China will be reduced 3 Domestic policies Last year, the Central Plains has cancelled the corn protection price policy, making corn really enter the market economy, for farmers, there are more choices; for grain purchase and sale enterprises, there is greater competitiveness However, in Northeast China, it is rumored that the government will reduce the price of corn protection, narrow the scope of purchase of protection price, which makes local farmers worry that the price of corn will fall in the future, thus affecting the enthusiasm of planting At the same time, the possible open corn futures market will reduce the stock and the pressure of entering WTO on the corn market of our country, so that the spot market and the futures market can be organically combined, and then the corn market can be standardized The issue of import quota has not been clarified As far as the port price of corn from the United States to China is concerned, there is no advantage, so the impact on China is very small Therefore, the national policy will be conducive to the development of corn market, gradually adapt it to international standards and rules, and embark on the track of healthy development 4 The situation of each region At present, corn market prices all over the country are running smoothly without too much fluctuation At present, a large number of northeast corn has been sent to various places, and with the gradual occupation of the southern market by northeast corn, the price has increased This year, the adjustment of planting structure in the three eastern provinces has reduced the corn planting area Among them, the corn planting area in Jilin Province is 24.3 million mu, 16% less than last year's 28.9 million mu However, the corn planting area in Central China is increasing At the same time, corn production is expected to increase this year due to good weather and abundant rainfall In recent days, torrential rain in some southern provinces and cities has caused flood disaster, damaged some farmland, and disrupted transportation, directly or indirectly affected the quantity of goods arrived in the sales area, resulting in price rise in some areas But on the whole, the corn market is still in normal operation all over the country The weather is important, but at present, it has not made a significant impact on the market 5 International prices At present, the FOB price of the US Gulf of Mexico is 94-97 US dollars / ton, and the duty paid price of the goods transported to the Chinese port is 1160-1180 yuan / ton, up about 20 yuan compared with the previous period It is estimated that corn production in the United States in 2002 / 03 will be 245 million tons, 7.24 million tons less than last month, but 3.63 million tons more than last year The decline in production led to a decrease in ending inventory, and the U.S corn price is still expected to have an upward trend As far as the current market situation is concerned, there is no clear leading factor to lead the market trend As far as the future corn market is concerned, both positive and negative factors coexist, and who will become the leading role remains to be seen (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: