Analysis on the trend of China's soybean market in July

Introduction: China's soybean import gate has been opened, the number of imports is gradually increasing, the genetically modified policy is gradually clear, and the Ministry of health has relaxed the management method of genetically modified imports, that is, this year's imported soybeans will not be affected by this method Many factors led to the panic of domestic distributors and oil factories, and the situation of soybean shortage was eased slightly, resulting in the rapid decline of domestic soybean market price The price of imported soybeans in Tianjin has dropped from 2300 yuan / ton, the previous high, to about 2100 yuan / ton The price of imported soybeans in other regions of China is also fluctuating between 2100-2140 yuan / ton The market price of soybean oil and soybean meal fell sharply The price of second grade soybean oil in Tianjin dropped rapidly from 4880 yuan / ton to 4640-4700 yuan / ton at the end of June, and the price of salad oil dropped from 5100 yuan / ton to 4900-4920 yuan / ton at the end of June The price of soybean oil in other areas of China also dropped by the end of June The price of soybean meal in Tianjin also went down from the high point of 1900 yuan / ton to 1700-1730 yuan / ton at the end of June A large oil plant in Beijing once quoted 1680 yuan / ton of Brazilian soybean meal At the end of June, the lowest prices in other regions: 1600-1620 yuan / ton in Heilongjiang, 1650 yuan / ton in Jilin, 1700-1720 yuan / ton in Dalian, 1700 yuan / ton in Shandong and 1700-1710 yuan / ton in Guangdong Due to certain restrictions on the time interval and quantity of the import license issued by the national quality inspection department, the soybean import has just recovered Therefore, in July, the soybean market has not changed much, and the price is still high According to fude.com, about 700000 tons of soybeans were imported in the whole June These soybeans are basically used by oil plants themselves and hardly used for spot distribution in ports And it is expected that the number of soybeans imported in July will double that of June Therefore, the overall price trend of soybean market is expected to decline in the later period
9bg
Just in July, the price of Tianjin soybean oil market rebounded greatly The price of secondary soybean oil has recovered to 4860-4880 yuan / ton In other regions of China, the price of secondary soybean oil (except in the East and North) has also increased by 50 yuan / ton to 100 yuan / ton in different ranges The price of salad oil rebounded to 5050 yuan / ton The price of salad oil in Shandong, Beijing and other places has also reached this price Hebei Province Qinhuangdao is 5000 yuan / ton 9bg on July 2, soybean meal market in Guangdong, Tianjin and Dalian took the lead in rebounding and the price rebounded On July 1, the price of soybean meal in Guangdong dropped to the highest price of 1750 yuan / ton, and the lowest price was 1700 yuan / ton On July 2, affected by the soaring soybean futures at home and abroad, the market price picked up rapidly in the morning, with the highest price of 1820 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 1800 yuan / ton At present, the soybean meal stock in Guangdong is sufficient and the market reaction is flat According to reliable news, the prices of soybean meal market in Dalian also rebounded on July 1 and 2, about 40-50 yuan / ton higher than the low price at the end of June However, the sales speed of Tianjin soybean meal market has accelerated, and the order quantity of dealers and oil factories has increased The price of soybean meal continues to rebound, and the price has reached about 1800 yuan / ton This is also the price of the previous decline is too large, falling too fast price supplement The main reason for the change of market price of 9bg soybean oil and soybean meal is that although the imported soybean has arrived at the domestic coastal ports one after another, some of them have entered the processing and production links, and the output of soybean meal and soybean oil has gradually increased However, there are still a few oil plants that have obtained imported soybeans Many oil plants still believe that the price of soybeans is on the high side, and the squeezing is in a state of loss, which has expanded the number of production stops of oil plants and sharply reduced the number of soybean oil and soybean meal in stock In order to ensure the market supply of small package oil, many oil factories have stopped selling bulk soybean oil, resulting in a rapid rebound in soybean oil prices The rising price of soybean oil makes the oil plants reluctant to sell soybean meal, and raises the selling price of soybean meal In addition, people's psychology of buying up and not buying down, the price of soybean meal in Tianjin and even the whole country will rise in the near future 9bg the author believes that the price of soybean oil and soybean meal is temporary With the further acceleration of the speed and quantity of domestic soybean imports, the quantity of soybean oil and soybean meal in the spot market will grow rapidly, and the weak demand of soybean oil and soybean meal will eventually lead to the market price decline In addition, as the raw material of soybeans, with the tightening of policy, the supply of soybeans will stop and increase intermittently, and the fluctuation effect on the market price will also be artificially amplified 9bg