Analysis on the soaring state of national feed production in July 2012

Introduction: first, the basic production situation in July, the national feed production rose steadily month on month According to the statistics of 159 feed enterprises tracked by the Ministry, the total feed output increased by 8.6% month on month and 10.5% year on year In terms of varieties, aquatic feed, pig feed and egg feed increased by 30.7%, 11.9% and 0.4% respectively, while meat feed and ruminant feed decreased by 3.5% and 1.0% respectively (see Figure 1 and Figure 2) Figure 1 monthly production trend of 159 feed enterprises from 2010 to July 2012 Figure 2 monthly production trend of 159 feed enterprises of different varieties from 2010 to July 2012 Figure 2 situation of enterprises of different scales The same month on month comparison of enterprises of different scales in July: the output of enterprises with monthly output of more than 100000 tons increased by 8.1% month on month; the output of enterprises with monthly output of 1-100000 tons increased by 9.8% month on month; the output of enterprises with monthly output of less than 10000 tons increased by 6.5% month on month The output of enterprises with monthly output of more than 100000 tons increased by 15.8% year on year; the output of enterprises with monthly output of 1-100000 tons increased by 9.7% year on year; the output of enterprises with monthly output of less than 10000 tons decreased by 8.3% year on year (Figure 3) Figure 3 production trend of feed enterprises of different scales from 2010 to July 2012 III price of feed raw materials In terms of raw material market, in July, the prices of main feed materials (corn, soybean meal, cottonseed meal, rapeseed meal, wheat bran, fish meal, dicalcium phosphate, 98.5% lysine, 65% lysine, solid and liquid methionine) rose on a month on month basis, with the price of other feed materials rising except for the price of dicalcium phosphate, lysine and methionine falling, among which the price of corn was 2.55 yuan / m Jinjin rose 1.6% month on month, 7.6% higher than the 2.37 yuan / kg in January this year; soybean meal price was 3.8 yuan / kg, 8.3% higher than the month on month, 22.2% higher than the 3.11 yuan / kg in January this year Compared with last year, wheat bran and soybean meal increased the most year-on-year, 21.9% and 15.9% respectively; fish meal, corn, rapeseed meal and cottonseed meal increased 9.7%, 8.1%, 2.8% and 0.4% respectively year-on-year, and the prices of other feed materials decreased to varying degrees (see Table 1, table 2, figure 4 and figure 5) Table 1 change of average purchase price of feed raw materials (unit: yuan / kg) Figure 4 trend of monthly purchase price of feed bulk raw materials from 2010 to July 2012 Table 2 change of average purchase price of feed additives (unit: yuan / kg) Figure 5 trend of monthly purchase price of lysine and methionine from 2010 to July 2012 IV price of feed products: from January to July, the price of feed products increased on a month on month basis, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 6.0% for fattening pig feed, 7.1% for egg feed and 4.3% for meat feed (see Table 3, table 4, Figure 6, Figure 7, figure 8) table 3 national average price of compound feed (unit: yuan / kg) Figure 6 price trend of pig feed from 2010 to July 2012 Table 4 national average price of concentrated feed and additive premixed feed (unit: yuan / kg) figure 7 price trend of egg feed from 2010 to July 2012 Fig 8 price trend of meat and poultry feed from 2010 to July 2012 v situation worthy of attention in feed and animal husbandry industry this month 1 Pig feed This month, the price of pork increased slightly, and continued to decline year on year According to relevant department data, the average price of pork in the national wholesale market in July was 20.16 yuan / kg, up 0.9% month on month, down 22.5% year on year This month, the price of pork showed signs of rising, the farmers' panic weakened, and the enthusiasm for making up the market increased In addition, due to the impact of the rising prices of corn, soybean meal and other raw materials, some farmers prepare materials in advance, so the output of pig feed has increased 2 Egg and poultry feed This month, the price of eggs fell in the same period and month on month In July, the average price of eggs in the national wholesale market was 7.88 yuan / kg, down 2.1% month on month, down 12.1% year on year Due to the students' holiday, the terminal consumption is not good, while the price of broiler and pork is low, so it is difficult to boost the egg price By the middle of this month, the terminal consumption has increased In addition, the hot weather has reduced the egg production Due to the decrease of the supply, the egg price has picked up slightly, and the enthusiasm of the farmers has improved The egg and poultry feed production in this month is generally flat on a month on month basis 3 Meat and poultry feed This month, the price of meat and poultry was flat on a month on month basis, and continued to decline year on year In July, the average price of Baitiao chicken in the national wholesale market was 13.93 yuan / kg, up 0.1% month on month, down 4.3% year on year At present, due to the sluggish terminal consumption, the lack of motive force for the price rise of poultry meat, the farmers' panic increased In addition, with the increase of weather temperature, the feed intake of broilers decreased, so the feed yield of broilers in this month continued to decline month on month 4 Aquatic feed This month, the price of major aquatic products in China has declined In July, the average price of carp in the national wholesale market was 13.09 yuan / kg, down 5.2% month on month; the average price of grass carp was 14.04 yuan / kg, down 1.6% month on month Although the price of aquatic products has declined, but it is still in the peak season of aquaculture, so this month's aquatic feed production increased by 30.7% month on month 5 Ruminant feed The price of beef and mutton products increased slightly this month In July, the average price of beef in the national wholesale market was 38.49 yuan / kg, an increase of 0.8% month on month; the average price of mutton was 46.51 yuan / kg, an increase of 0.9% month on month With the rising temperature, the intake of cattle and sheep decreased, and the grass was sufficient, so the ruminant feed decreased this month Note: among the 159 enterprise information used in the analysis, 80% of the enterprises with large scale and output only provide trend reference k4r