Analysis on the situation of China's grain market: increasing external influence

Introduction: in 2005, in the context of 2004 harvest, the tension and balance of domestic grain market has been alleviated to some extent However, various factors affecting the market are more complex In order to better grasp the grain price and the trend of grain futures in 2005, we have made a study on 200 The general situation and characteristics of the grain market in the past five years are summarized as follows: in 2005, the domestic grain market showed the following four characteristics: first, the tension and balance of grain began to ease, but it has not been fundamentally reversed Under the background of the continuous reduction of farmers' taxes by the central government and the good year of last year, China's grain market has been relieved to some extent from the tense balance in 2003 However, this relief has great instability That is to say, if the grain production is increased again this year, the tension and balance will be effectively relieved, and it is possible to transition to a loose balance, and the price will fall But if this year's food production is not ideal, then the tense balance will transition to a state of short supply, and the price may rise again Therefore, the trend of grain prices this year largely depends on the harvest this year Secondly, the new situation of structural reform of China's grain market circulation system is taking shape, and it has a new effect on price formation This is mainly reflected in the rise of individual grain traders and farmers' brokers all over the country The expansion and growth of their teams directly shorten the distance between urban consumers and farmers, improve the efficiency of grain circulation, and reduce the cost of grain circulation (thus reducing the price difference between regions and the seasonal price difference) In this way, it also improves the sensitivity of farmers to the change of grain price, strengthens the role of farmers in the pricing system of grain, and plays a greater role in the function of Grain Reserve (playing the role of reservoir) Over the past year, farmers have been reluctant to sell wheat, soybeans, corn and other varieties, which directly support food prices The reason for reluctant to sell is partly due to the increase of production cost caused by the rise of the price of agricultural materials, more importantly, the farmers are more sensitive to the change of food price, and the farmers' grasp of the national policy of supporting food price and the rising trend of large food price Thirdly, the contradiction between supply and demand of different varieties of grain has its own characteristics, and leads to relatively different seasonal trends Under the guidance of long-term preferential policies and market prices, grain production has entered the path of restorative growth However, under the combined effect of the time to alleviate, the planting cost and the limitation of land expansion, the tension and balance between the total supply and demand of grain can only be alleviated relatively Therefore, this year's trend of various varieties may be under pressure and support In this way, the seasonal trend of various varieties will be more prominent On the whole, after March to April this year, the pressure of last year's high-yield in the grain market will be basically released From May to August, grain prices will enter the pattern of easy to rise and hard to fall On the one hand, during this period, the grain is in a period of green and yellow, and the problem of relatively tight grain inventory due to successive years of consumption will be exposed again On the other hand, as the main crops enter the critical growth period, the weather will become the main reason for market speculation After entering autumn, the output of grain market this year will fall into stone The gap between the actual output of grain and the market expectation will determine the price trend after autumn Finally, inflationary pressures have increased and triggered greater volatility in food prices In March this year, China's CPI index ended the five-month decline caused by macro-control, and rose again At the same time, the inflation index of the world also rose due to the rise of crude oil prices Worldwide, the inflation driven by resource constraints and demand inflation has been relatively obvious In such an environment, it is difficult for the grain market to be independent At the same time, driven by the purchase of international and domestic funds and the protection of commodity futures, the short-term fluctuation of grain prices will inevitably increase.