Analysis on the price trend of main agricultural products in 2005

Introduction: since the end of 2003, the price of grain has rebounded strongly, which has driven the price of agricultural products to rise generally, becoming one of the main factors for increasing farmers' income in 2004 At present, the prices of major agricultural products are still at a high level In the future, we have organized experts to analyze and study the trend The general judgment is: if there is no large-scale natural disaster, the overall pattern of supply and demand of agricultural products will not change greatly, and the prices of most products may fluctuate, but the overall trend is stable Food According to the relevant data provided in the world food outlook report recently released by the FAO and the World Agricultural Outlook report released by the World Agricultural Outlook Committee of the United States, the world food production will increase by 7.8% in 2004, and the world food inventory at the end of the period will reach 387 million tons, an increase of 8 million tons or 2.1% over the previous year The pressure of the continuous decline of the world food inventory tends to However, there are still worries about world food security, and the situation of tight supply has not fundamentally changed First, the ending inventory of grain accounts for only 17.8% of the current year's consumption, which is lower than the safety warning line of 18% Second, the structural contradiction of grain inventory is prominent Wheat stocks increased and rice and corn stocks decreased Wheat stocks increased by 7.6% and rice stocks decreased by 18.7%, the lowest level since 1982 Third, the situation of food supply in low-income and food deficient countries is still severe, with 38 countries suffering from food shortage crisis It is estimated that China's total grain output this year will be 938.9 billion jin, an increase of 77.5 billion jin Among them, the output of rice is 350-3600 billion jin, which is still a certain gap compared with the actual consumption of 370-384 billion jin The world rice trade volume is only 46-50 billion jin It is reported that China National Grain Storage Corporation will purchase 4 billion jin of grain, including 2.4 billion jin of rice, before the end of January In addition, the state has made it clear that the minimum purchase price policy will continue to be implemented for major grain varieties this year We expect that grain prices, especially rice prices, will remain at a higher price Cotton It is estimated that in 2004, the global cotton output will be 48 billion jin, and the consumption will be about 44 billion jin In the same year, the supply will exceed the demand, and the inventory will be 19.5 billion jin at the end of the year China's cotton production and demand have increased by a large margin It is estimated that China's total cotton production is 12.8 billion jin, a record high The total consumption is 15.5 billion jin, and the gap is 2.6 billion jin Import plus last year's inventory transfer, the end of the year's inventory is 2.7 billion jin, accounting for 18.9% of the inventory consumption, which is in a strong police area with safety indicators In November 2004, cotton prices at home and abroad slowed down after falling in late October The domestic cotton price was 5.7 yuan / Jin, lower than the annual average level, 0.5 yuan / Jin higher than the international market price In general, cotton supply and demand are tight, and the price is stable, but there is little room for increase Oil It is predicted that the global oil production will increase by 15.5% in 2004, of which the soybean production will increase by 21.4%, the oil stock will increase significantly, the production and consumption of edible oil will increase synchronously, and the stock will increase slightly It is estimated that in 2004, the total annual supply of edible vegetable oil in China will be 41.4 billion jin, including 8.3 billion jin at the beginning of the period, 25 billion jin in total output and 8.2 billion jin in import; 33 billion jin in total annual consumption and 8.4 billion jin at the end of the period In 2004, the output of oil crops in our province reached a new record, reaching 6.2 billion jin, an increase of 26.8% over the previous year Among them, 4.4 billion jin of rapeseed increased by 17.9%; 1.2 billion jin of peanut decreased by 12.0%; 310 million jin of sesame decreased by 24.1% The oil market is full of joys and worries Due to the influence of many factors such as comparative benefit, reluctant to sell and waiting for price and insufficient funds for enterprise acquisition, the price of rapeseed is higher and lower In the middle of May, the average opening price of the whole province is 137.1 yuan per 100jin, and in the middle of June, it is 125.29 yuan, In the first ten days of July, there was a slight correction in some places, but the situation was gone By August, the purchase of rapeseed was basically completed, and the price still did not reach the level of 140-150 yuan expected by farmers The prices of peanuts and sesame seeds are also unsatisfactory In the first half of the year, the price of peanut went up from 320.26 yuan in the first ten days of January to 348.40 yuan in the first ten days of July, up 8.8%; after entering August, with the listing of new peanut, the price began to fall, and by the end of December, the price had fallen to the level at the beginning of the year, only 335.22 yuan Sesame, after the high price frenzy in 2003, the price of sesame never recovered in 2004, which will have a serious impact on sesame production It is predicted that the price of peanut and sesame will not change greatly in the oil market in 2005, except that the price of rapeseed may rise slightly due to the influence of sufficient supply and price drop in the international oil market Fruit At present, the price of fruit in the international market is about 40% higher than that in China on average After the end of the transition period of China's accession to the WTO, the impact of the foreign market on the fruits in our province is not big The wide skin orange and navel orange are mainly affected by the domestic market, and the export situation is good It is mainly due to the improvement of living standards of urban and rural residents and the increase of fruit consumption; the fruit processing capacity of our province has been significantly improved In 2003, the processing capacity was only more than 10000 tons, and last year, it reached more than 50000 tons This year, it continues to grow We judge that the area, output and price of wide skin orange and navel orange, which are competitive in our province, will be on the rise Tea Domestic and foreign consumption demand is on the rise In addition to the traditional Southeast Asia and Russia, the international market has also opened up markets in the Middle East and other markets, with strong growth momentum of export recovery; the domestic market for famous tea and pollution-free tea is generally marketable, and the production and processing level of tea in our province is significantly improved, and it is expected that the output and price will show an obvious upward trend in 2005 Livestock and poultry products: in 2004, after suffering from the sudden attack of highly pathogenic avian influenza and the impact of sharp rise in feed price, the production in the second half of the year rebounded strongly, breaking the long-standing rule of "increase in food price - increase in feed cost - decrease in breeding efficiency", and the price of livestock and poultry products in the province went all the way up The price of pigs has always been high, and the ratio of pig to grain is as high as 1:6 The average purchase price of live pig market is 8.70 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 40.8% over the previous year; the average purchase price of live chicken is 10.65 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 19.1% over the previous year; after deducting the factors of rising grain price, the net profit of Touping pig breeding is still considerable According to the survey of 81 small, medium and large-scale pig farms and farmers conducted by the cost survey team of Provincial Price Bureau, the net profit of Touping pig farm in small-sized pig farms is increased by 93.51 yuan, and that of medium-sized pig farms is increased by 93.51 yuan Pig farm increased by 70.87 yuan, large-scale pig farm increased by 57.18 yuan, and the average net profit of farmers increased by 72.03 yuan With the increase of farmers' consumption of pig and poultry products, the increase of sales to other provinces and foreign countries, the rapid rise of large-scale animal products processing enterprises, and the sharp increase of purchase volume, we expect that in the past two years, pig and poultry products in our province will remain popular, the price will not fluctuate greatly, and the output will grow steadily Aquatic products: in 2004, the aquatic products market in our province showed a rare good situation in recent years First, the situation of low prices in previous years was changed, showing a good situation of "production and sales booming" The total amount of aquatic products in the province is expected to reach 3 million tons, of which the trading volume through various markets will reach 2 million tons and the trading volume will reach 12 billion yuan The price of aquatic products has a strong upward trend, with an average increase of 25-30% In particular, the "four big fish" has seen a rare blowout market for many years, which has led to a substantial increase in the price of aquatic products In 2005, due to the implementation of the strategy of large-scale aquaculture and pollution-free aquaculture, the aquaculture output is expected to reach a new high and the product quality will be greatly improved Although the price increase in 2004 is large, under the background of the increase of demand for aquatic products from urban and rural residents and the expansion of processing and export, the price of the whole aquatic products will maintain a high price operation Some famous and special aquatic products, such as shrimp, catfish, etc There will be a trend of tight supply of products and rising prices