Analysis on the price trend of domestic soybean market this autumn

Introduction: at present, the new beans in 2001-2002 have been listed in large quantities Heilongjiang's new beans went on the market about 10 days later than last year On September 25, Harbin's manufacturers opened the market to accept new beans The market opening price is 0.82-0.83 yuan / Jin, and the factory's receiving price is 0.89-0.90 yuan / Jin According to the market situation at the beginning of listing, due to the decrease of imported soybeans, the price of imported soybeans is higher than that of real soybeans, and the price of new soybeans should be firm and rise slowly On the contrary, the price of new beans has fallen instead of rising Up to now, the soybean production in Heilongjiang Province is 0.78-0.80 yuan / Jin The manufacturer's acceptance price is reduced to 0.86-0.87 yuan / Jin The formation of this situation is mainly due to the domestic market, including two aspects First, farmers are eager to sell grain, not reluctant to sell it because of the falling price, and strive to sell their soybeans Because they have already suffered from the difficulty of buying food last year, some of them have not sold Chen Dou, and the situation of selling new Chen beans at the same time appears Second, the soybean manufacturers are not eager to purchase, holding a wait-and-see attitude At present, processing soybean is basically unprofitable The price of Heilongjiang soybean oil is 2.08-2.13 yuan / Jin The soybean meal is 1480-154 yuan / ton There is not much profit after deducting all kinds of direct and indirect expenses Moreover, the price of products is not only low, but also there is no mass demand In addition, due to the loss in the early stage, most of the manufacturers are short of funds, so they are willing to buy raw materials at a low price, but they do not have enough funds At present, this kind of market demand situation will have a great influence on soybean price trend in the future Without the stimulation of big favorable factors, the current situation may last for some time However, there are at least three predictable factors that can cause market changes: market shock and market psychological impact brought by China's accession to the WTO in November and January 2 China's policy trend on genetically modified and imported quality control issues 3 The outcome of the negotiations between China and the United States on the issue of soybeans In my opinion, due to the contradiction between output and demand in China, a large number of imported soybeans are inevitable, but in terms of the current local market price Imported soybeans have no price advantage It can be seen that there is no room for the price level to decline In the product market, the current price of finished products will fluctuate with the change of market demand The general price trend should be that if the soybean import cost is not significantly reduced, the market will rise after a short period of hesitation (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: