Analysis on the price trend of domestic grain market in the near future and forecast in the second half of the year

Introduction: in the first half of the year, the domestic grain price was high and fluctuated greatly Shortly after the Spring Festival, food prices began to rise, and then soared all the way In March and April, they reached their peak, with a maximum increase of more than 30% Under the joint action of national macro-control and other factors, it began to fall back, with a maximum decline of more than 20% After several months of adjustment, the current grain price has started to strengthen, and wheat, corn and rice have stopped falling and rising Wheat: the national average price of the third grade white wheat in July was 1530 yuan / ton, 1.06% higher than that of last month On August 15, the price of common white wheat increased by 2-4% compared with the same period in July The ex warehouse price of common white wheat in Shanxi market was 1580 yuan / ton, 5.1% higher than that in the same period last month The arrival price of common white wheat in Fuzhou market was 1620 yuan / ton, 4.3% higher than that in the same period last month Corn: in July, the domestic corn market rose steadily, the national average price of second-class yellow corn was 1346 yuan / ton, 1.43% higher than that of last month; on August 15, the closing price of Guangdong standard medium moisture corn port was 1470-1480 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton higher than that of last month; the wholesale price of Quzhou second-class corn was 1550 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton higher than that of last month; Shandong standard The wholesale price of water grade 2 corn is 40-60 yuan / ton higher than the end of last month, and 100-130 yuan / ton higher than that of May Rice: in the near future, the trend of rice in China has been divided, the trend of rice is relatively weak, while the trend of rice is relatively stable, and the trend of new early rice production is eye-catching As of August 16, the purchase price of conventional early rice in Zhejiang Province is RMB 154-1640 yuan / ton, up 60-100 yuan / ton compared with the previous period; the purchase price of conventional early rice in Jishui County, Ji'an City, Jiangxi Province is RMB 1500-1520 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton compared with the opening period The purchase price of Hubei ordinary early indica rice increased from 1.36 yuan / kg in late July to 1.50 yuan / kg According to the analysis of the insiders, the factors for the recent strengthening of domestic grain are as follows: first, the domestic grain production is insufficient, the supply and demand are still tight, the domestic grain production has been reduced for many years in a row, and the grain inventory has dropped to a low point in the past six years In order to stabilize grain production, the state has introduced a series of policies and measures this year With strong measures from all over the country, farmers are highly motivated to grow grain Wheat production increased by 2.5 billion kg compared with last year, and early rice production increased by 13% compared with last year, reversing the downward trend of domestic grain production year after year But this is only a recovery increase in production Even if the annual grain production is increased by 25 billion kg, reaching the expected output of 455 billion kg of the Ministry of agriculture, it still cannot meet the consumption of that year In recent years, China's grain demand has remained at 480-490 billion kg, and it is estimated that this year's grain gap will still be more than 25 billion kg, including 11 million tons of wheat and 12-15 million tons of rice Due to the sharp decrease in exports of corn, the demand for domestic breeding industry affected by avian influenza is not strong, and the gap is not very large Domestic food supply and demand are still quite tight This is the basis for the medium-term strengthening of domestic grain prices 2 The purchase policy of rice protection price closed the falling space of domestic grain price In March, the state issued the minimum purchase price policy of 1400 yuan / ton for early indica rice, and later announced the minimum purchase price for late rice Recently, relevant departments have issued the purchase plan of early rice protection price If the market price of early indica rice is lower than the policy price, the state will start the implementation plan of the minimum purchase price of early indica rice On the other hand, in order to prevent the excessive increase of grain price, the state should strengthen macro-control, strengthen market management, formulate emergency measures for the excessive increase of grain price, and strive to control the grain price within the acceptable range of all parties The signals from these policies are clear, that is to say, in order to protect the enthusiasm of food and agriculture for grain production, the price of early rice in recent stage must be above 1400 yuan / ton Although there is no protective price policy for wheat and corn, due to the price comparison effect, the market will also form a psychological price, and the space for grain prices to fall in the near future will be closed At the same time, it shows that the rise of grain prices must be controlled within a certain range, No Then the state will intervene 3 In the near future, there are less rotation of state grain storage, and the increase of replenishment On the one hand, the relevant departments have issued a notice to suspend the auction of old grain and prevent the impact on the market caused by the centralized ex warehouse of grain In the near future, the auction activities of old wheat and corn have been suspended or slowed down, and the supply of grain market has been correspondingly reduced On the other hand, the state-owned grain storage enterprises have a huge amount of grain to increase storage and replenish storage In the first half of this year, a large number of grain stocks have been sold off in order to stabilize grain prices The grain stocks of state-owned grain storage enterprises have been reduced to the lowest level in the past decade, and it is urgent to purchase large quantities of grain to make up for the inventory In the first half of the year, the price of grain rose sharply, which caused the country to attach great importance to the food security, and formulated the grain reserve policy of "six months in the sales area and three months in the production area"; in order to ensure the local food security, the provincial and municipal governments also increased the amount of grain reserve Therefore, this year, not only the number of grain rotation and replenishment warehouses is relatively large, but also the number of grain storage and increase is very large The increase and decrease of the state treasury, reflected in the market, has resulted in the short supply of grain and strong demand in the near future, which has driven up the price of grain Fourth, farmers are more reluctant to sell this year, the most obvious feature of wheat and rice purchase is that farmers are reluctant to sell, which has not formed the purchase climax of previous years The main reasons are as follows: first of all, last year's lesson of "selling early and suffering losses" made farmers behave well in this year's grain sales, but this year's wheat and rice purchase practice has proved that this experience is still effective at present; second, there is a national protection price purchase policy to rely on, and farmers have a bottom in their hearts, so they don't have to worry about the ups and downs of grain prices When grain prices rise, they are more willing to see and then decide No sale; third, the agricultural tax has been cancelled this year In the past, the agricultural tax collection of grain was completed by the cooperation of grain, finance and township After the cancellation of the agricultural tax, because the finance and township no longer actively focus on the purchase of grain, the "state tax of grain" that farmers had to complete in the past can freely arrange the time and quantity of sale, which also slowed down the progress of grain sales People still understand that farmers are reluctant to sell grain; Fourth, the relevant departments and media released reports that although the grain production increased in the year, there was still a gap in supply, which increased farmers' reluctance to sell In the future, the time for farmers to sell grain will be prolonged, while the time for state-owned grain enterprises to increase storage will be relatively concentrated This pair of contradictions can not be properly handled, which will cause a sharp rise and fall in grain prices Especially at the beginning of the new grain market, this kind of centralized procurement will easily lead to the phenomenon that the grain supply is seriously short of demand in a short period of time, making the grain prices rise abnormally V the high price of bidding and purchase in the sales area has a pull-up effect on the grain price The recently held grain bidding and Purchase Fair has a high bid winning price and all deals have been completed, which reflects the strong demand in the grain market In Fuzhou, on August 10, the average transaction price of 20000 tons of red and hard wheat produced in Jiangsu in 2004 was 1867.9 yuan / ton, and that of 10398 tons of white and hard wheat produced in Shandong and Henan was 1820.34 yuan / ton, 83 yuan / ton and 84 yuan / ton higher than that of July 30, respectively; on August 10, the average transaction price of 1850 tons of new early indica grain (early indica grain) purchased by public bidding in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province reached 1738.65 yuan Yuan / ton, about 20 yuan / ton higher than the average price of 1718.91 yuan / ton of Fuzhou zaogu bidding on July 30 (Note: the above transaction prices are all the comparative prices including the warehousing and stacking of packages) The transaction prices of these bidding purchases are quite high, which has a strong pull-up effect on domestic grain prices In the future, there will be more bidding and purchasing activities, and the transaction price will be of guiding significance to the trend of domestic grain price 6 The resources (including grain) restricted by transportation conditions are mainly distributed in the West and the north, while the consumption is mainly concentrated in the East and the south, and the domestic railway transportation capacity has been relatively tight Although, this year, the railway sector has dug deep into its potential, with a substantial year-on-year increase in transportation capacity, it still cannot meet the continuous growth of key material transportation At present, the railway is concentrating on the transportation of electricity and coal, and the wagons are very tight Many signed grain contracts cannot be fulfilled due to the difficulty of wagons However, due to the overload control of highways, the freight rate has more than doubled, and the cost of cross provincial procurement has increased However, the task of increasing the storage of state-owned grain enterprises in the sales areas has to be completed In order to catch the grain source, the purchase price of grain has to be increased, resulting in the increase of grain price The shortage of railway transportation capacity in China is a big factor that causes the price of domestic grain to rise and fall When the price of grain rises in the early stage, the sales area desperately goes to the production area to purchase, but the goods are picked up, but limited to transportation capacity, but can not be shipped back People's psychology of buying up and not buying down makes the supply of goods in the sales area more tense, the price keeps rising, and more people go to the production area to purchase When the price of grain rises to a certain height, the state will often introduce some policies to let the grain be transported to the south, so the supply of grain will roll south At this time, a large number of grain purchased by the sales area is far from being shipped out, and it still keeps going south In the short term, the grain supply in the southern sales area exceeds the demand seriously With the joint effect of other factors, the grain price in the Southern Sales Area sometimes falls excessively, resulting in the phenomenon that the price in the production area is higher than that in the sales area It can be said that the railway transport capacity is the booster for the sharp rise and fall of domestic grain prices 7 The global grain end of term inventory continued to decline According to the analysis of the food outlook report issued by FAO in June 2004, in 2003 / 04, the global grain output increased by 2.8% year on year, and the global grain end of term inventory decreased by 16.2% year on year Among them, wheat output decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, ending inventory decreased by 21.2% year-on-year; rice output increased by 3.4% year-on-year, ending inventory was 103 million tons, down 10.9% year-on-year, the lowest level since 1982; coarse grain output increased by 5.4% year-on-year, ending inventory was 139 million tons, down 14.0% year-on-year Although global production will recover in the next year, there is still a gap compared with stable growth in consumption It is estimated that the global grain output will increase by 3.7% year on year in 2004 / 05, and the global grain consumption will increase by 1.2% Global grain end of term inventory will decline by 8.8% and inventory consumption ratio will be 18.2%, the lowest in recent years This is the external environment for a stronger domestic grain price These factors are the driving force for the recent rise of domestic food prices In the future, these factors will still play a role in domestic food prices, but there are still some variables that affect the trend of food prices First, with the coming of the peak season of phased grain consumption, stimulating the rise of grain price with the arrival of the traditional peak season of flour consumption on the Mid Autumn Festival and the national day, the demand for wheat increases, while the stock of aged wheat is less and less, which will drive the rise of wheat price The domestic breeding industry will usher in its golden season in the second half of the year The demand for corn will increase significantly, and the purchase and sales will increase simultaneously If the transportation continues to be tight, the imbalance between supply and demand in the production and marketing areas will provide opportunities for the price of corn to rise Although the peak season of rice consumption has not yet arrived, it is only a few days before the start of school At present, students have begun to return to school one after another The peak of centralized purchase is coming, and rice is growing in the flat 2 The outbreak of avian influenza in our neighboring countries once again, and the domestic breeding industry is in jeopardy On August 18, Malaysia announced that cases of avian influenza had been found in the northern part of the country, in kilandan state, which borders Thailand This summer, another outbreak of bird flu in southern Vietnam killed or slaughtered 60000 poultry and killed three others