Analysis on the price trend of animal products and feed in July 2005

Introduction: according to the survey and statistics of 450 price information points of animal products conducted by the Department of animal husbandry of the Ministry of agriculture, the price of animal products in July decreased in varying degrees compared with that in June, and the price of feed was basically the same As the price of live pigs decreased little, the ratio of pig to grain still reached 6.11:1 and kept above 5.5:1 for 24 consecutive months Compared with the same period last year, the prices of pigs and feed decreased, while the prices of poultry products and beef and mutton increased 1 The price of pig products continued to decline slightly The average price of piglets, live pigs and pork in China is 13.35 yuan per kilogram (hereinafter referred to as the price unit), 7.94 yuan and 13.07 yuan respectively, which are 2.8%, 0.9% and 0.6% lower than that in June (hereinafter referred to as the month on month) The price of piglets in Jilin is the highest, 19.6 yuan The price of live pig and pork in Shanghai is the highest, 9.53 yuan and 16.63 yuan respectively Compared with the same period last year (hereinafter referred to as year-on-year), the average prices of piglets, live pigs and pork in China decreased by 0.9%, 10.5% and 7.3% respectively In the near future, the price of pig products will continue to decline In recent two years, the price trend of pig products is different from the historical law In the past, prices were generally high in the first and fourth quarters, low in the second and third quarters, and gradually increased from July In the past two years, the price of pig products has been rising for 17 consecutive months since May 2003, and then falling all the way from October last year The decline has lasted for 10 months This month, the price of pig products for the first time showed a negative year-on-year growth Due to the small monthly decline, the price of pig products is still at a high level 2 The price of poultry products has declined in an all-round way The national average price of eggs is 6.64 yuan, down 1.5% month on month, and the prices in Hunan and Guizhou are higher, all above 8 yuan Each commercial egg chicken and commercial meat chicken was 2.35 yuan and 2.36 yuan respectively, with a month on month decrease of 0.4% and 3.7% respectively The prices of live chicken and suit chicken were 10.97 yuan and 11.02 yuan, respectively, down 2.4% and 1.2% month on month The price of poultry products is still higher than that of the same period last year, including 3.3% higher for eggs, 22.4% higher for commercial egg chickens, 29% higher for commercial meat chickens, 5.5% higher for live chickens and 6.5% higher for suit chickens Egg prices are expected to continue to fall in August Compared with pig, cattle and sheep products, the price of poultry products fluctuates greatly In the first seven months, it rose slightly in the first two months, fell rapidly in March and April, rose in May and June, and fell again this month But the overall price is higher than the same period last year From January to July, the average ratio of egg to grain was 5.14:1, which was reasonable for chicken raising From the perspective of production, in the first half of the year, the output of eggs was 13.038 million tons, an increase of 8.6% year on year, with a rapid development speed and sufficient market supply; from the analysis of consumption factors, influenced by the climate, the consumption will not increase in the near future, and it is expected that the price of eggs will continue to decline in August 3 The price of beef and mutton is stable and slightly lower The price of beef was 17.4 yuan, down 0.3% month on month The prices of Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and Hainan are higher, with an average of 23.25 yuan, down 1.9% month on month; the prices of Hebei, Jilin, Anhui, Shandong and Henan are lower, with an average of 15.66 yuan, down 0.7% month on month The average price of mutton in China was 17.29 yuan, down 0.1% month on month The price of Hainan and Fujian is high, 26.75 yuan and 25.6 yuan per kilogram respectively; Chongqing is the lowest, 13.5 yuan The average price of Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Henan and Xinjiang was 15.99 yuan, down 0.5% month on month In the later stage, the stable price pattern of beef and mutton will not change In the past nine years, the price of beef and mutton has basically kept rising steadily, and only after February this year, it has declined slightly The price is still higher than before 2004 From January to July, the average price of beef was 17.56 yuan, and the average price of mutton was 17.59 yuan, up 7.8% and 6.9% respectively year on year It is expected that the pattern of year-on-year price growth and slight decline in month on month will not change greatly in the short term IV feed price: feed price was basically flat on a month on month basis, down year on year basis The national corn price was 1.3 yuan, unchanged on a month on month basis, down 7.8% year on year The national soybean meal price was 2.89 yuan, up 0.3% on a month on month basis, down 7.1% on a year-on-year basis; the imported fish meal was 6.28 yuan, up 1.5% on a month on month basis, up 3.8% on a year-on-year basis; the compound feed for fattening pigs was 1.88 yuan, down 1.1% on a month on month basis; the compound feed for broilers was 2.15 yuan, down 0.5% on a month on month basis, down 0.5% on a year basis; the compound feed for laying hens was 1.93 yuan, down 1% on a month basis Feed prices are expected to rebound slightly later From January to July, the average price of corn and soybean meal was 1.31 yuan and 2.87 yuan, respectively, down 3.1% and 6.8% year on year As the price ratio of pig to grain and egg to grain is always above the profit and loss point, the breeding is still profitable, and the development trend of animal husbandry is good This trend continues, and the feed price is expected to rebound slightly.