Analysis on the market situation of dairy industry

Introduction: first, the milk production in 2001 showed a rapid growth pattern Since the reform and opening up, China's milk production has made great progress In 2000, the total milk production reached 9.19 million tons In 2001, China's milk production showed a rapid growth pattern In the first three quarters of 2001, the cumulative milk production was 663.18 tons, up 14.93% year on year According to this situation, it is estimated that the increase of milk output will be more than 10%, the annual milk output will be 9.1 million tons, and the annual milk output will reach about 10 million tons 5CB in terms of regional distribution, China's milk production is mainly concentrated in the north Heilongjiang, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shandong, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Ningxia are the top 8 provinces in terms of milk production, all of which are in the north In the first three quarters of 2001, the milk production of these eight provinces accounted for about 68% of the total milk production in China It can be seen that in 2001, the rapid development of dairy industry in China was mainly due to the development of dairy industry in northern agricultural areas, especially in Shandong and Hebei In the first three quarters of 2001, the milk production in Shandong increased by 50% over the previous year, and that in Hebei increased by about 30% In the year of 5CB 2001, although China's dairy industry showed a high-speed development trend, there are still some problems that can not be ignored: first, the per unit yield level is still low The second is the lack of cow resources Third, the basic facilities are not matched and do not meet the development needs of the dairy industry 5CB 2 Analysis of dairy consumption in 2001 5CB with the development of dairy production, China's per capita dairy consumption has also increased However, due to the large population base and the influence of consumption habits, the overall consumption level is still low, which is far behind the world average At present, the per capita consumption of milk in China is less than 8 kg The annual per capita consumption of dairy products in the world is about 100 kg One of the biggest characteristics of China's dairy consumption is that the dairy consumption is mainly concentrated in urban residents, while the dairy consumption of rural residents is very small Among the rural residents, there are great differences between pastoral areas and agricultural areas Due to the influence of consumption habits, the per capita consumption in pastoral areas is about 20 kg, while the per capita consumption of farmers in rural areas is less than 1 kg 5CB in the first three quarters of 2001, the monthly consumption of dairy products per capita of urban residents was about 1.4kg, which was about 17kg in the whole year, an increase of 15.6% over the previous year In the dairy consumption structure, the consumption of fresh milk is the largest, the consumption of yogurt has increased, and the milk powder basically remains unchanged In 2001, the consumption of fresh milk per person accounted for 71.6% of the total annual consumption, milk powder accounted for 19.4% and yoghurt accounted for 9% 5CB 3 Overall judgment on the supply and demand situation of dairy industry in 2001 The general situation of 5CB 2001 is that the supply and demand are in short supply, and the gap between supply and demand is further expanded It is estimated that the gap will be expanded to nearly 500000 tons in the whole year, compared with 440000 tons in 2000 The main reasons for the imbalance between supply and demand are the shortage of milk sources, low level of per unit yield, and the lack of cold chain and other processing facilities in some places, which affected the development of dairy production in 2001 The corresponding consumption demand is relatively strong, and its growth rate exceeds the production growth, which inevitably leads to the further expansion of the gap between supply and demand 5CB 4 Prediction of milk industry situation in 2002 The development of milk industry in 2002 will show the following trends: 5CB 1 Milk production will keep growing, and the growth rate in the north will be faster than that in the South With the enhancement of residents' awareness of nutrition and health care, and the high attention of local government departments at all levels to the development of dairy industry, China's dairy industry has entered a new development peak First of all, the state attaches great importance to the dairy industry For example, the outline of China's food and Nutrition Development (2001-2010) just released by the State Council at the end of 2001, the "Tenth Five Year Plan" for animal husbandry and the vision target for 2015 released by the Ministry of agriculture and so on, all of them regard the dairy industry as the key industry for future development Secondly, with the stimulation of demand, the national "students' milk drinking plan" and "residents' nutrition improvement action plan" take the dairy consumption as the main means to improve and improve the residents' nutrition level All of these provide good external conditions and opportunities for the rapid development of dairy industry In 2002, dairy production will continue to maintain a high-speed growth trend, and it is estimated that the growth rate will remain above 10% 5CB 2 Milk consumption will increase steadily 5CB With the improvement of residents' understanding of the nutritional value of milk products and the implementation of the national "student milk drinking plan" since 2000, China's milk consumption has entered a new stage of development In 2000, the growth rate of dairy products for urban residents reached 15%, and in 2001, the growth rate reached 15.6% It is predicted that the growth rate of dairy products consumption in 2002 will remain at the level of more than 10% 5CB 3 Significant changes have taken place in the market environment, and the dairy industry is facing a certain impact After the accession of 5CB to the world trade organization, the production and market environment of China's dairy industry will undergo significant changes, and with the reduction of tariff level, foreign dairy products will have a greater impact on domestic milk In contrast, the impact of liquid milk is smaller, and the milk powder market will be under more pressure On the other hand, the production of dairy industry in China is scattered, small-scale, low per unit yield, and the degree of industrial organization is also low The contradiction between small-scale production and large market is very prominent The production standard, quality level and per unit yield level of dairy industry need to be improved urgently, which indicates that China's dairy industry will face greater pressure in 2002 5CB 4 Dairy products imports continue to increase, and prices will remain stable 5CB At present, there is a certain gap between the supply and demand of dairy products in China, and the production volume can not fully meet the market demand, which needs to be supplemented by imports In 2002, although the production of dairy products will still maintain a high-speed growth, but relatively still can not meet consumer demand, the gap between supply and demand will increase slightly, and dairy imports will still have a certain increase compared with 2001 In terms of market price, due to the reduction of tariff level and the rapid development of domestic production after China's accession to the world trade organization, the competition in the market of dairy products will be more sharp, thus keeping the market price of dairy products relatively stable 5CB 5 In response to the impact of China's accession to the world trade organization, dairy enterprises will step up the pace of merger and reorganization 5CB Since the late 1990s, a group of powerful enterprises in China have established a group of dairy industry clusters through joint-stock restructuring, merger and reorganization and strong alliance However, the overall production scale of China's dairy enterprises is still small, even the top ten dairy enterprises in China are still small compared with similar foreign enterprises At present, 13 of the world's top 25 foreign dairy companies have entered China, which will undoubtedly cause strong pressure on domestic dairy enterprises In the face of this situation, only by strengthening the reform, enterprise merger and reorganization, and low-cost expansion, can domestic dairy enterprises not be overwhelmed by foreign enterprises and maintain domestic market share as much as possible 5CB in general, there is still a gap between the supply and demand of milk in 2002, and the gap between the gap and the last two years is not too large The focus of dairy work should be to increase milk source, speed up the construction of production standard and quality standard system, promote the merger and reorganization of dairy enterprises, and promote the industrialization process of dairy industry, so as to improve the market competitiveness of China's dairy industry 5CB (author:) to feed Weibo to: