Analysis on the future trend of domestic soybean meal price

OA show ('918 '); in recent years, the price change of domestic soybean meal market has made many oil plants see the light of dawn that has not been seen for many days, and the processing profit of oil plants is rising Unfortunately, due to the influence of raw material supply, their operating rate is limited to some extent, which is also the main reason for the recent rise of soybean meal price Objectively speaking, the domestic soybean meal price has already met the conditions of seed stabilization and rising, but it is too early to conclude the possibility of a sharp rebound based on this The reasons are as follows First, the domestic soybean price has continued to be strong Since the autumn harvest, the domestic soybean price has continued to be strong, which shows that farmers are reluctant to sell An important feature of the domestic grain market after the autumn of this year is the price rise, first the price of corn rises, then the price of wheat recovers According to the analysis of relevant experts, China's total grain output this year is 460 million tons, a reduction of 50 million tons compared with last year, a decrease of 10% This is a rare year in the history of China's grain production in the past two decades, and the contradiction between domestic grain supply and demand has been greatly alleviated The emergence of these situations makes farmers have a strong expectation of price increase for domestic grain prices to support soybean prices In addition, the soybean price in the international market has also obviously appeared at the bottom After two consecutive years of high-yield, with the improvement of the world economic situation, the international soybean price has also begun to find a new support point, and the possibility of a sharp fall in the future is very small Although this year is the highest soybean production in the history of the United States, there is no spot price last year Recently, the prohibition of meat and bone meal in European market has constituted a real benefit factor for the price increase of soybean in the United States It is estimated that the demand for soybean meal will increase by 2 million tons The price of soybean meal in the international market has also become an important part to guide the price increase of soybean At present, the price of imported soybean meal at China's port has reached 234 US dollars / ton, equivalent to 2340 yuan / ton, which is not available at all Competitive power In addition, with the decline of domestic oil price and the improvement of domestic soybean quality, the advantage of imported soybean is decreasing, and the price difference of 100 yuan / ton also determines that there is not much room for domestic soybean price to fall At present, the price of imported soybeans has risen to 2200 yuan / ton, and the cost price of newly signed contracts is more than 2200 yuan / ton The pressure on domestic soybeans is very small According to this, the price of domestic soybeans 2100 yuan / ton should be a reasonable level, and the price of corresponding soybean meal should be steadily increased 2 Consumption of imported soybeans in the port After a period of processing and use, the import of 600000-700000 tons detained in the port has been basically consumed It is generally estimated that the soybean stock in the port is only over 100000 tons, and the part used for trade is very few This quantity is no longer a great threat to the processing capacity of 1.2 million tons of soybean per month in China; therefore, if there are some small changes in the domestic soybean market in the near future, they will have an impact on the operating rate of some enterprises, and then affect the supply of soybean meal market 3 Since the Spring Festival this year is in January, less than a month from now, the quantity of northeast soybeans sent to the customs will continue to be affected by the shortage of cargo transportation capacity after the start of the Spring Festival In addition, according to previous years' experience, Northeast soybean merchants have the habit of returning home for the Spring Festival, which will also affect the organization and shipment of Northeast soybean If the number of available soybeans in Northeast China decreases, the price of soybean meal will also rise In fact, the main reason for the rise of domestic soybean meal price is also this Because some small and medium-sized oil plants in Guannei rely heavily on northeast soybeans due to the restriction of funds and other aspects, they take the lead in selecting domestic soybeans after the domestic soybeans are listed, and the scheduled import goods are few or none at all In December, after the number of northeast soybeans sent to Guannei decreased, the operating rate of oil plants decreased significantly Together with the decrease in the delivery and transportation of northeast soymeal to Guannei, the supply of soybean meal in some areas was strained and the price rose It is also a good illustration that the price rise of soybean meal first appeared in the north rather than in the south 4 Peak feed consumption before the festival The Spring Festival is the season when the adult livestock are put on the market The period before the Spring Festival is also the time when the demand for raw materials of domestic breeding industry is relatively large, which is conducive to the recovery of soybean meal price objectively 5 Centralized stock up of farmers Due to the influence of China's customs and habits, farmers have the habit of having a new year Before the Spring Festival, farmers should prepare enough materials for use after the Spring Festival, which will lead to the consumption in the later period ahead of schedule and make the supply of soybean meal tight The above five reasons make it easy to break the weak supply balance of soybean meal in China Once there is a little turbulence, it may cause fluctuations in the soybean meal market The recent rise in domestic soybean meal prices is the direct result of the break of this balance Soybean meal prices have risen at present, and will not fall significantly in the future However, it seems that the possibility of soaring is not sufficient Whether the scenery of this year can be reproduced after March next year depends on the import situation and the actual progress of the import of soybeans In addition, we must pay attention to the actual inventory situation of soybeans in Northeast China According to relevant experts, the output of soybeans in China will reach 16 million tons this year, an increase of 1.6 million tons over last year It can be inferred from the current situation that the soybean supply in the same period of this year will increase by 2.2 million tons compared with that of last year due to the increase of soybean production and the overstock of imports in the earlier period, and the corresponding domestic soybean supply period will also increase by nearly two months In addition, due to the impact of the rise of large domestic oil plants, this year's imports of soybeans are higher than the same period last year According to the export shipment statistics report of the U.S Department of agriculture as of November 23, China has imported 1.74 million tons of U.S soybeans since September this year, an increase of 530000 tons over the same period last year, an increase of 44% In addition, there is a strong desire to further purchase Even in the recent high price situation, there are also businesses entering the market Before December 10, China has entered the market to buy ships in December and January It is 200000 tons of soybeans in the United States; and according to traders, some Chinese merchants have already done a good job of discount and increase for South American soybeans shipped in April and may next year, so in general, the possibility of obvious shortage of soybean supply at the beginning of next year is small, the possibility of shortage of soybean meal supply does not exist, and the possibility of soaring soybean meal price is also small It is estimated that after the end of the Spring Festival, there will be a small upsurge in the quantity of northeast soybeans sent to the customs, and the price of domestic soybean meal will also fall once, but the decline will not be too large due to the rising price of raw materials and the rising price of external market One thing is certain, in terms of the current international market, soybean meal price is still the trend At present, the collapse of palm oil price in the international market makes it difficult to get out of the historical low point in a short time, which has become the main factor restricting the international oil trade Because soybean oil is at the historical low point continuously (the impact on China depends on the quota situation), the operating rate of domestic oil processing enterprises in the United States has decreased (information from American soybean crushing Association, recent operating rate of American oil plants has decreased Six percentage points) The European Parliament and the Italian government have announced a ban on the use of meat and bone meal, which will support the price of soybean meal At present, the price of imported soybean meal is more than 235 US dollars / ton, which is equivalent to RMB comprehensive cost of 2350 yuan / ton Even if the VAT is reduced by 13%, it is also 2080 yuan / ton It is not competitive for the domestic market at all, but it provides the possibility of export Ewj by