Analysis on the dynamic situation and influencing factors of domestic wheat market in mid July

Introduction: at present, the overall trend of the domestic wheat market remains stable, and the prices in some regions fluctuate According to the understanding of the wheat prices in the main production areas and ports, there is still the possibility that the wheat prices will continue to rise in the later period The specific situation is as follows: first, the general price of wheat acquisition in the production areas will rise: At present, the purchase price of medium white wheat in eastern Shandong is 0.52-0.53 yuan / Jin, 1 point / Jin higher than the price when the scale was opened in mid June The actual average price of ordinary middle wheat sold by farmers in Henan Province is between 0.51-0.53 yuan / Jin, which is also 1-2 points higher than that when the scale was opened The purchase price of common wheat in northern Hebei Province is 0.51-0.52 yuan / Jin, which is also 1 point / Jin higher than that when weighing The purchase price of the first-class red wheat in the north of Lianyungang City, Jiangsu Province is 0.465-0.47 yuan / Jin, and the purchase price of the second-class red wheat is 0.455-0.46 yuan / Jin Although it is 2 points / Jin higher than the opening balance, it is still 3 points / Jin lower than the first-class red wheat in the same period last year, and 2 points / Jin lower than the second-class red wheat Ex warehouse price: in this ten day period, the ex warehouse price of wheat in the main production province is stable, with a drop In the central region of Shandong Province (Jinan and Tai'an), the average ex warehouse price of wheat in 2001 is 1060-1070 yuan / ton; in the eastern region (Weifang), the average ex warehouse price of wheat in 2001 is 1060-1070 yuan / ton; in the western region (Heze and Jining), the average ex warehouse price is 1050-1060 yuan / ton, which is the same as that in the first ten days of July The average ex warehouse price of wheat in central Henan (Zhengzhou) in 2001 is 1010-1020 yuan / ton; the average ex warehouse price in southern Henan (Luohe) is 990-1000 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton lower than that in the first ten days of July In 2001, the average ex warehouse price of wheat in central Hebei (Shijiazhuang, Hengshui) was 1040-1050 yuan / ton, while that in Southern Hebei (Handan) was 1040-1050 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton lower than that in the first ten days of July The average ex warehouse price of common wheat in southern Shanxi is 1060-1070 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton from the first ten days of July 2 The port wheat price slightly increased In this ten day port (Guangzhou South Station), the price of white wheat in Jiangsu was 1060 yuan / ton, the same as that in the first ten day of July; the price of red wheat in Jiangsu was 1050 yuan / ton, the same as that in the first ten day of July The quality wheat of "Yannong 15" produced in Shandong is 1250 yuan / ton, 30 yuan / ton higher than that in the first ten days of July; the common white wheat produced in Shandong is 1160 yuan / ton, 10 yuan / ton higher than that in the first ten days of July 3 The price of imported wheat fell In this ten day period, the price of imported wheat (Huangpu port), American soft wheat (chenmai) was 1150 yuan / ton, 150 yuan / ton lower than that in the first ten day of July; in Australia, 1100 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton lower than that in the first ten day of July; in Jiamai 1, 1700 yuan / ton, 200 yuan / ton lower than that in the first ten day of July The main reason for the decline in the price of imported wheat is the recent auction of imported wheat stocks in Guangdong In the later stage, there are many factors that affect the operation of the domestic wheat market The specific analysis is as follows: 1 This year's winter wheat output slightly decreased compared with last year, but due to the sufficient inventory, the situation of supply exceeding demand will remain, which suppresses the market price rise However, due to the disaster in the later stage of growth, the quality of wheat in this year is generally lower than last year, and the market prospect is still optimistic 2 The sales subsidy policy in the main production areas of the North has a huge impact on the early market price It is said that it will adjust the new wheat After the adjustment policy is made public, it will have an impact on the market psychology However, if it is not completely cancelled, the existing stock grain sales will still be subsidized It is difficult to distinguish the new and old grain in the grass-roots enterprises This policy will still have a great impact on the market 3 The rotation of the central reserve grain will still have an impact on the future market At present, it is the climax of acquisition The rotation of the central reserve grain is in progress, which supports the purchase price of the market However, due to the reduction of the price difference between the round bid of the reserve grain and the purchase price at the beginning of July, there is little room for the market price to rise 4 After entering September, the wheat market will enter the consumption period, and the market demand will play a certain role in promoting the market price However, as the central government and the provinces continue to deal with the stored grain, the supply rhythm of the low-cost grain market will not slow down In addition, the sales volume of the state-owned purchase and sale enterprises in the early stage is large It is estimated that the inventory of the processing enterprises will increase year by year, and the market price is difficult to go far High 5 The impact of imported grain is not big, and the market demand for imported grain is weakened In addition, the price of imported wheat is higher than that of northern high-quality wheat at present Last year, the area of high-quality wheat in the main production areas of northern China increased higher, and the quality improved, weakening the quality advantage of imported wheat, and promoting the market price in the later period In conclusion, it is predicted that the wheat market will rise in the later period, but the increase will not be too large On the whole, although the wheat market price may rise in the later period, due to the lack of market promotion power, the space for rising will be restricted, the price will not rise significantly, and the overall market volatility will be weak (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: