Analysis on the development trend of animal husbandry in 2002: cattle and sheep are still the growth point

Introduction: in 2001, China's animal husbandry continued to maintain its momentum of development From January to September, the total meat output was 48.599 million tons, up 4.7% year on year; the output of eggs was 16.991 million tons, up 2.1% year on year; the output of milk was 6.632 million tons, up 14.9% year on year In the aspect of livestock products export, from January to October, the export value of livestock products in China was 2.38 billion US dollars, and the import value was 1.61 billion US dollars In terms of animal husbandry for farmers, cows, pigs, sheep and other good income, animal husbandry has become a leading industry for farmers to become rich Stable development of pig production, good pig raising efficiency, high proportion of sows in stock, and sufficient potential for pig production and development In 2000, pig production was in a period of expansion, the proportion of pig food reached about 1:6, and the income of pig raising was quite high, which also stimulated the development of pig raising industry The proportion of sows in stock is over 9%, which ensures the potential of pig production Generally speaking, in terms of the current productivity level in China, the number of sows on hand accounts for 7% - 7.5% of the total number of pigs on hand However, in 2001, the proportion of sows kept high, which on the one hand reflected the profitable breeding of sows, and on the other hand showed that China's pig production has sufficient potential, and this year there will be no big fluctuation in production The price of pigs, pork and piglets has a downward trend, which makes the pigs in good profit From January to September 2001, the average price of piglets was 8.58 yuan / kg In December, the price of piglets was 9.00 yuan / kg There was no big fluctuation in the price of pork, which was around 10 yuan / kg in the whole year Generally speaking, there was no big fluctuation in the efficiency of pig raising in 2001, and the annual efficiency was relatively average Due to the impact of grain price, seasonal factors and the increase of pork export and other factors, since November, the efficiency of pig raising has been better, and the profit of each pig raising is more than 50 yuan Laying hens are difficult to produce, and they are basically on the verge of capital preservation In 2001, the egg price did not get rid of the previous year's downturn, and slightly declined The egg price dropped to 4.0 yuan / kg-4.3 yuan / kg, the lowest level in recent years By analyzing the profit situation of layer production in 2001, it can be said that it is a long-term loss The average price of corn from January to September is 1.17 yuan, and the ratio of egg to grain is 4.57:1, which is lower than the balance point of surplus production According to figures from the Ministry of agriculture, the egg production in the first three quarters was 16.991 million tons, with sufficient egg sources and low price The production of broiler is greatly affected by the export The production is stable but the price is volatile In 2001, broiler production was closely related to the switch of EU and Sino Japanese trade war According to statistics, from January to September 2001, the export of broilers in China was less than 220000 tons It is estimated that the annual export is about 290000 tons, which is lower than about 10% of the total in 2000 The price of broiler is the most obvious livestock product with the change of international market The export situation of broiler directly affects the development of broiler industry According to shandongyang Gu Fengxiang group, in 2001, the group exported 30000 tons of frozen chicken products, including Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, Switzerland and other regions, of which only 6000 tons were exported to Japan, the price of chicken products is higher than that in 2000, and the price of chicken products reaches 2600 US dollars / ton, but still can not catch up with the price of chicken exported from Thailand to Japan, of which 2800 US dollars / ton is the price of chicken exported from Thailand Cattle and sheep production is still the highlight of animal husbandry in 2001 In 2001, the production of cattle and sheep was still very beautiful, and the benefit of cow raising was improved on the basis of great benefit in 2000 The annual income of a cow raised by a farmer was 3000-5000 yuan Beef cattle production also showed an upward trend in 2001 Under the influence of European Union and Japanese BSE, Chinese beef has become a hot commodity, especially the demand for live cattle supply to Hong Kong and beef export has increased sharply The market price of beef is also stable at 12 yuan / kg - 14 yuan / kg Mutton production is in the ascendant, mutton price has been developing steadily in recent years, and the price is also stable at the level of 14 yuan / kg-16 yuan / kg Special breeding is still an important supplement to animal husbandry In 2001, there was no new bright spot in special culture Compared with 2000, the production of meat rabbit has declined, and the price of adult rabbit has dropped to 5.6 yuan / kg-5.8 yuan / kg; the price of Rex rabbit skin is around 30 yuan-40 yuan, but the high-quality skin still has a good market and the price is not cheap; the price of rabbit hair has not broken through the price of 100 yuan / kg, and the production is stable There is hope for animal husbandry in 2002 Based on the above factors, the specific analysis of the development of animal husbandry this year is as follows: pig production is still dominated by stability, and the price does not fluctuate too much It can be seen from the pig production in 2001 that the pig stock is basically stable, and the proportion of sows in stock is still on the high side, maintaining a level of more than 9% throughout the year, which also lays a foundation for the stable development of production this year The price of eggs will still be low, and the stock of laying hens will be gradually reduced The price of eggs remained at 4.4 yuan / kg-4.6 yuan / kg in December last year, and the deficit of chicken raising expanded It is expected that the egg price will still be operated at a low level in the first quarter of this year If the number of layers on hand is not significantly reduced, it is difficult for the egg price to rebound After a long-term development, China's egg industry has entered a period of relative surplus The way to solve the problem is to expand exports China's annual egg production is up to 20 million tons, ranking first in the world, accounting for 43% of the world's total output, but the export volume is only about 50000 tons At present, the export of eggs in China is still on the export of fresh eggs, which has been concentrated in Hong Kong and a few other regions The cost of eggs in China is lower than that in Europe and America The export price is 200 US dollars per ton on average, and the export competitiveness is great After China's accession to the WTO, China should vigorously explore Asian markets such as Southeast Asia and Japan, and take advantage of its geographical advantages to occupy the egg markets of these countries or regions, so that China's eggs will become the leading export livestock products Whether the broiler market is active or not depends on the export situation The quality of broiler production in China is closely related to the export situation Since 2001, China's broiler breeding has also begun to move towards standardization Shanghai Dajiang, Shandong Jiulian, etc have built high-standard chicken houses Jilin Deda and Shandong Fengxiang have also made great strides in large-scale breeding, which paves the way for China's broiler competition in the world The production cost of Chinese broiler is higher than that of the world At present, the country with the lowest production cost of Broiler in the world is the United States The cost of feeding and processing is about 30% lower than that of China, followed by Thailand, China and Brazil, and the European Union is also lower than that of China 45% of the production cost of broiler is feed, and 50% - 60% of the feed cost is corn Now the average level of corn price in China is 20% higher than that in the international market Now the price of chicken in Japanese market is rising, and the stock is very small, but with the end of Sino Japanese trade war, the cheap chicken products of China are very attractive to Japan So if China can open up the Japanese market, this year's broiler production is still very promising It is an effective measure to develop herbivorous livestock After China's accession to the WTO, the advantages of China's animal husbandry are mainly reflected in its herbivorous livestock On the one hand, the price of herbivorous livestock in China is lower than that in foreign countries; on the other hand, the prevalence of mad cow disease in the world, and China is still a pure land From the animal husbandry situation in 2001, we can see that raising cattle and sheep is still a better way to get rich this year The fattening of crossbred cattle, the feeding of dairy cows and the feeding of meat sheep are all good projects Due to the large market gap, the tight price of high-quality dairy cattle and hybrid fattening cattle will not change Meat rabbit and Rex Rabbit are also promising herbivores after China's accession to the WTO China's rabbit meat has a large market in Europe, especially since the outbreak of BSE in Europe, the consumption of beef has declined, while the consumption of rabbit meat has increased From the price point of view, after entering December 2001, Rex rabbit skin price has rebounded, and meat rabbit price has rebounded due to the pull of export It is estimated that this year's situation is OK Special breeding still needs to be cautious Although many multimedia reports are beneficial to special care after China's accession to the WTO, in particular, they cannot be blindly optimistic 2002 is the first year after China's accession to the WTO This year is a buffer period as well as an adaptation period It will take time to test what changes China's accession to the WTO will bring After 20 years of development, modern animal husbandry in China has accumulated a considerable foundation China's accession to the WTO is an opportunity for innovation, which will promote China's animal husbandry to achieve a new leap forward.