Analysis on the data of import and export of Western medicine in the first half of the year: the pace slows down, and the annual growth rate is expected to be 5% - 8%

Source: the export volume of medical economic report 2015-08-05 increased by 3.87% year-on-year, 2.22 percentage points lower than the same period of last year; the import volume increased by 5.40% year-on-year, significantly lower than the growth rate of 16.04% year-on-year; it is expected that the import and export trade of Western medicine products will grow steadily in the second half of the year, with an annual growth rate of about 5% - 8% In the first half of 2015, China's import and export of Western medicine products slowed down, with a total import and export volume of US $29.335 billion, up only 4.55% year on year, down 5.76 percentage points from 10.31% in the first half of 2014, and the lowest in a decade According to the export situation, in the first half of 2015, the export volume of Chinese Western medicine products was 16.134 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3.87%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.22 percentage points, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%, and a slight decrease of 1.05% in the average export price The export growth of Western medicine products, which accounted for nearly 60% of the total export trade of pharmaceutical products, was weak, directly dragging down the export growth of pharmaceutical products in the first half of the year From the perspective of import, in the first half of 2015, China's import of Western medicine products amounted to US $13.201 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.40%, down from 16.04% in the same period last year The import volume increased by 8.40% year-on-year, which became the main factor driving the growth of import volume; while the average import price fell slightly, down 2.77% year-on-year In the first half of the year, China's trade surplus of Western medicine products further narrowed to US $2.933 billion, but the decline of the surplus was only 2.49% Both import and export trade went out of the low-speed growth market Export situation since this year, the export growth of Chinese Western medicine products is weak From the single month export data, only in February, April and may, the export volume increased year on year, while in January, March and June, the export volume decreased, especially in March, the export volume decreased by 7.58% Although the year-on-year growth in February was significant (42.5%), this was mainly due to the small base of exports in the same period last year, and the single month exports in February were still the least affected by the Spring Festival holiday (data source: China Chamber of Commerce for medical insurance sorted out according to the data of China Customs, the same below) 1 The rigid demand was maintained, and the export price continued to fall in the first half of 2015 The export market pattern of Western medicine products in China remained unchanged, and the total rigid demand remained, but affected by the economic situation of various regions, the performance of each market was different As the main export market of Western medicine products in China, Asia's export volume maintained a low-speed growth, with a year-on-year growth of 3.42%; with the continuous recovery of the U.S economy, the North American market recovered, with a year-on-year growth of 10.87% in its export volume; In Europe, another traditional export market, due to the sluggish economy, the market continues to be depressed, and the euro exchange rate continues to decline, the export volume to Europe only slightly increased by 1.65% year-on-year; the export volume growth to Latin America, Africa and Oceania was 3.96%, 0.39% and 5.09% respectively In fact, in terms of export quantity, the demand of several export markets for Chinese Western medicine products continues to grow, but the corresponding is the general continuous decline of export prices The export performance of this feature is particularly outstanding in the three emerging markets of the Middle East, Latin America and Oceania The export volume to these three markets increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 13.80%, 19.20% and 9.41% respectively, but at the same time, the average export price also declined significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 10.85%, 12.79% and 3.95% respectively It can be seen that the current international market competition is very fierce, and most enterprises still choose to sacrifice price and let profit and quantity guarantee to maintain the export status quo, especially in the process of more enterprises vigorously exploring emerging markets, the fight is even more fierce 2 In the first half of 2015, Chinese Western medicine products were exported to 188 countries and regions India remains the largest export trading partner with a market share of 14% 94.36% of the western medicine products exported from China to India are APIs and pharmaceutical intermediates, which are mainly used by Indian pharmaceutical enterprises to process and produce downstream APIs or pharmaceutical products for re export As India's pharmaceutical industry is also export-oriented, its willingness to purchase has been reduced due to weak external demand In addition, the supply of some APIs in China is insufficient due to environmental protection pressure, which also affects the export to India In the first half of the year, China's exports of Western medicine products to India only increased by 3.58% year on year, and the growth rate dropped by 7.28% compared with the same period of last year As the second largest export trade partner of Western medicine products in China, the United States accounts for 13% of the market As the U.S economy continues to recover, its market has gradually recovered since last year Orders and inquiries of enterprises have increased, and exports have increased significantly In the first half of 2015, China's exports of Western medicine products to the United States increased by 10.55% year on year, and the average export price slightly decreased by 0.35% year on year It can be seen that export growth is driven by demand Compared with the recovery of American market, in the first half of this year, the export of Chinese Western medicine products to several major European markets was not very ideal Although Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy are still among the top ten trade partners of Western medicine export of China, their exports to Germany and the Netherlands show a negative growth, with their exports down 7.65% and 4.59% year-on-year respectively; their exports to Spain and Italy slightly increased 5.35% and 2.83% year-on-year respectively Belgium, which has been among the top 10 markets in the past few years, has also seen a 6.85% year-on-year drop in exports, ranking only 12th In addition, it is worth mentioning that Thailand is the eighth largest export market In the first half of the year, the export of Chinese Western medicine products to Thailand increased significantly Under the influence of the double increase of export volume and price, the export volume increased by 34.77% year on year The main export products are amino acids, antibiotics and other raw materials, enzymes, heparin and other biochemical drugs, and some Western patent medicines all increased significantly Table 1 Top 10 export trade partners of Western medicine products in the first half of 2015 (ranking by export volume) 3 Private enterprises accounted for half of the total In the first half of 2014, there were 8979 enterprises operating in the export of Western medicine products in China, an increase of 229 over the same period last year Among them, private enterprises have always been the main force in the export of Western medicine products in China 6934 private enterprises have exported 8.849 billion US dollars of Western medicine products, accounting for 55% of the total export volume, while the number of foreign-funded enterprises doing their best is only 15%, but their export products are more concentrated in high value-added varieties, accounting for 30% of the total export volume; The number of state-owned enterprises is the least, accounting for only 7.5% and contributing 15% of the export volume In the first half of this year, China's top ten export enterprises of Western medicine products accounted for 9.48% of the total export volume In addition to Shanghai yishixiang Logistics Co., Ltd., which ranks first, is a logistics and storage company, mainly acting as an agent for the export of preparations, other enterprises still export bulk APIs such as amino acids, vitamins, citric acid, anti infection and so on It is worth noting that Zhejiang Huahai pharmaceutical industry has gradually entered the harvest period in recent two years with its solid accumulation in international market development, especially the strategic layout of internationalization of preparations In the first half of 2015, the export of Western medicine products of Huahai pharmaceutical industry achieved a substantial growth, and the export enterprises ranked fourth, and more than 20% of its export products were Western patent medicines, most of which were sold to Europe and the United States Table 2 top ten enterprises of Western medicine in the first half of 2014 (sorted by export amount) 4 API is still the main export category Although in recent years, the transformation and upgrading of China's pharmaceutical industry has been accelerated and the foreign trade structure has been continuously optimized and adjusted, the process is still relatively slow From the export data, in the first half of 2015, the export pattern of the three categories of Western medicine products in China has not changed significantly Chemical APIs are still the most important export category, accounting for 81.89% of the export volume, while the export proportion of Western patent medicine and biochemical medicine is 9.59% and 8.52% respectively According to the specific export situation, in the first half of the year, the export volume of APIs increased by 5.15% year on year, and the export price decreased by 2.62% compared with the same period At the beginning of this year, the "strictest environmental protection law in history" was implemented, and strict environmental protection policies were implemented everywhere Many enterprises stopped production for rectification due to environmental protection failure Some local governments even required enterprises to be relocated, which directly led to the failure of normal production of some APIs and pharmaceutical intermediates, shortage of goods in the market, and insufficient export supply, such as folic acid, chloramphenicol, VB12 , procaine penicillin, benzathine penicillin, tetracycline hydrochloride, etc Although this situation has driven the prices of these varieties to rise in a short period of time, it has also caused a great negative impact: first, it has caused market chaos, some enterprises have not approved new projects, increased production capacity, and some newly produced products can not meet the export standards, so they fake the export of regular enterprise products; Secondly, the downstream enterprises such as pharmaceutical products in China are also affected by the shortage of raw materials and the increase of purchase price, and some pharmaceutical products export loses international competitiveness; Third, foreign competitors such as India will take the opportunity to resume production of some varieties and seize the international market share of China's products For example, according to the Indian website, the Indian government recently reviewed an inter ministerial committee report and suggested that in response to the rising import price of APIs, it would promote the production of domestic APIs by establishing pharmaceutical enterprise cluster bases and other incentives For some bulk API varieties, although they are also affected by the rising cost pressure such as environmental protection, the situation of overcapacity and low price competition has not changed, and the export is still sluggish For example, for VC, VE, paracetamol and other products, even if some enterprises stop production and limit production in a short period of time, but due to large inventory in the early stage, the problem of overcapacity cannot be cured, and the export price continues to fall In the first half of the year, the export volume of Western patent medicine increased by only 0.42% year on year, but the export price increased by 10.25% year on year Africa has always been the main market for the export of preparations of Chinese local enterprises However, since last year, the currencies of Nigeria and other African countries have continued to depreciate, lack of US dollar payment, extended payment cycle, and increased export risks, which have led to a decrease in the export willingness of Chinese Enterprises and a significant reduction in the export volume to Africa in the first half of the year In addition, the insufficient supply of some APIs and the rising prices also have an impact on the export of downstream pharmaceutical products in China In the first half of the year, the export volume and price of biochemical drugs increased by 5.01% and 6.21% respectively Import situation 1 The performance of the three major import markets is different In the first half of 2015, the import of Western medicine products in China continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down Europe, Asia and North America are still the main import markets of our country's western medicine products, but the performance of the three import markets is different In the first half of 2014, China's imports of Western medicine products from Europe showed a trend of decreasing in volume and increasing in price, with imports down 7.62% year-on-year and import prices up 14.31% year-on-year Under this effect, the import volume increased 5.61% year-on-year, reaching US $8.752 billion, accounting for 66.30% of the market; The import of Western medicine products from Asia showed a trend of increasing in volume and decreasing in price Under this effect, the import volume was basically the same (- 0.33%) year-on-year, accounting for 16.17%; while the import volume and price from North America increased both, accounting for 16.31% and 12.28% year-on-year In the first half of this year, China imported western medicine products from 85 countries and regions The top ten import trade partners are still concentrated in developed countries in Europe, America and Japan, with the cumulative import volume accounting for 72.57% and high market concentration.