Analysis on the characteristics of new soybean purchase in Heilongjiang Province in 2002

Introduction: Recently, many soybean manufacturers and insiders have begun to explore and predict the purchase price of new soybean in Heilongjiang Province This year, some new changes have taken place in China's soybean import, soybean stock, production and processing, supply and demand, etc., which have also brought some new features to the new soybean purchase in Heilongjiang Province 1 The soybean processing capacity of Heilongjiang province increased significantly in 2002 Heilongjiang Jiusan oil (Group) Co., Ltd was designated as the national leading enterprise of agricultural industrialization This year, Jiusan Oil Group Co., Ltd built two large oil plants in Zhaoguang farm of Baoquanling agricultural administration bureau and Bei'an agricultural administration bureau in Heilongjiang Province, and planned to test run on July 28 and September 30 respectively Both plants are equipment of Crown Corporation of the United States According to the design capacity, the daily processing capacity of soybean is 2500 tons Combined with the technical transformation of Jiusan old plant, only Jiusan oil (Group) company increases the daily processing capacity of soybean by 5400 tons At the same time, several oil plants in the province have also carried out equipment transformation, with an estimated daily increase of soybean processing capacity of 1000 tons A total of 6400 tons of soybean processing capacity were increased in the province Calculated by 25 days of monthly production, 160000 tons of soybeans are needed every month, and 960000 tons of soybeans are needed for half a year of production 2 The purchase volume of grain depots in Heilongjiang Province will be larger than that of last year's China's implementation of the regulations on the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms and three supporting regulations on March 20 of this year As a result, the number of imported soybeans arriving at Hong Kong has been significantly reduced, the domestic soybean supply is tight, and the purchase and sale price of soybeans in Heilongjiang Province has also been greatly increased Many grain depots in Heilongjiang Province took advantage of the opportunity to sell soybean stocks at a high price, about 500000 tons These soybeans belong to the national commodity inventory, and the original purchase price is higher After the new soybeans are listed this year, they must be purchased and replenished Since the price of domestic soybeans has risen since March this year, most of the soybeans purchased by grain depots last year have made money Therefore, the enthusiasm of purchasing soybeans by grain depots this year will be very high, and the purchase volume will certainly increase 3 The cost of soybean transportation purchased by oil processing plant has been greatly reduced This year, the state has two policies that are conducive to the increase of soybean price in Heilongjiang Province First, the construction fund for railway transportation of large grain varieties has been cancelled since April 1, 2002 Taking the soybean sent from Heilongjiang Province to Shandong Province as an example, the average transportation cost has been reduced by about 60 yuan / ton Second, from January 1, 2002, the input tax deduction of the general taxpayer enterprises for the purchase of soybeans by farmers increased from 10% to 13% This policy can reduce the cost of purchasing soybeans by about 40 yuan / ton Only for these two items, this year's purchase of Heilongjiang soybean by oil plants in Shandong and other places can reduce the cost by about 100 yuan / ton The reduction of purchasing cost is conducive to the increase of purchasing price of soybean in Heilongjiang Province, and the selling price of soybean produced by farmers will increase accordingly 4 The dependence of oil plants in other provinces on soybean procurement in Heilongjiang Province has increased for nearly three years, the rapid growth of large oil processing plants in China, the rapid growth of soybean processing capacity, and the rapid growth of soybean imports, while the demand for soybean products has increased relatively slowly Due to the geographical location of inland oil plants such as Shandong and Henan, the cost of purchasing imported soybeans is relatively high Since July 2002, most of the small and medium-sized oil plants in Shandong Province have not achieved good results Judging from the situation of purchasing soybeans in Heilongjiang Province since last year, many small and medium-sized oil plants are short of funds In recent years, the oil plants in Liaoning, Hebei, Henan, Shandong and Shaanxi have purchased Heilongjiang soybeans, most of which are paid after advanced plants, while the imported soybeans purchased at the port need to be paid before shipment Under the condition that the benefits of using imported soybeans and domestic soybeans are the same, the oil plants should first choose Heilongjiang soybeans Because of the poor economic benefits and shortage of funds, the oil plants in Liaoning, Hebei, Henan, Shandong and Shaanxi rely more on Heilongjiang soybean procurement 5 The low quantity of imported soybeans is conducive to the increase of soybean price in Heilongjiang Province Due to the implementation of the regulations on the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms, the quantity of imported soybeans is significantly lower than that of the same period last year Recently, the higher soybean price in Chicago also restricts the quantity of imported soybean From the current import situation, during the listing period of new soybeans in Heilongjiang Province, the quantity of imported soybeans in domestic ports will be much less than that of the same period last year, and the price of imported soybeans will be higher than that of the same period last year The low quantity and high price of imported soybeans will inevitably lead to the higher purchase price of new soybeans in Heilongjiang province than last year 6 As early as last year, many institutions and manufacturers of Dalian futures delivery soybean purchase association made huge profits in selling hedging of soybean futures At the same time, Heilongjiang Province has more futures companies than last year After the new soybean goes on the market, the enthusiasm of purchasing and reserving futures to deliver soybean will be greater After the new soybean went public last year, the time of delivery soybean purchase was later, but delivery soybean began to purchase in large quantities, which was the starting point of soybean purchase price rise in Heilongjiang Province If soybean delivery is profitable this year, institutions and manufacturers participating in futures soybean hedging this year may start early and move quickly 7 Farmers and dealers' reluctance to sell significantly aggravates the sharp increase in domestic soybean prices after March this year, while farmers who keep beans and manufacturers who stock them sell higher soybean prices later In the early stage of this autumn's new soybean market in Heilongjiang Province, this situation is likely to lead to the psychological aggravation of most farmers' expectation of selling high prices and increase the difficulty of acquisition Manufacturers are eager to buy, farmers want to sell high prices, the result will also make Heilongjiang Province new soybean purchase price higher than last year In conclusion, the author believes that the price of new soybean listed in Heilongjiang Province this year will definitely be higher than last year As for the height, it's still hard to determine The purchase price of new soybean in Heilongjiang Province will ultimately depend on the quantity and price of imported soybean at that time and later period of purchase, and on the sales price of domestic soybean meal and soybean oil at that time and later period The purchase price of new soybean in Heilongjiang Province is not entirely determined by how much the farmers want to sell, but mainly depends on the price and supply and demand situation of international and domestic soybean and its products at that time and in the future (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: