Analysis on the characteristics of aquaculture and animal husbandry in 2013

Introduction: 1 2012 3jq is about to pass It is not a quiet year for China's mobile insurance industry, but also the most stressful year in the past decade From the end of the year to October, except for beef cattle, sheep and egg birds, which are above the profit level, and the two kinds of breeding industry highly related to the animal protection industry, the meat poultry and pig industry have been below the profit line, which is basically difficult to walk This leads to the mobile insurance industry as a whole is also in a volatile situation After 3jq in October, the price of pigs began to rise gradually, the price of broilers began to rise, and the farmers began to enter the profit situation under the condition of relatively normal breeding On December 18, CCTV exposed the event of "fast-growing chicken", which shocked the broiler breeding industry as much as an "8-magnitude earthquake" The price of chickens dropped rapidly by about 20%, and the price of chickens in breeding farms entered the era of "1 yuan" With the application of antibiotics and antiviral western medicine exposed in the "fast growing chicken" event, the mobile insurance industry has been pushed to the forefront of the wave, making the mobile insurance industry under unprecedented pressure 3jq 2: analysis of the characteristics of China's aquaculture industry in 2013 3jq 1, scale, standardization and economization are still the general trend In recent years, China's aquaculture industry has been developing in the direction of scale, standardization and economization, and the pace of development is faster and faster After the trichlorocyandiamide incident in 2008, due to the promotion of the government, in a very short period of time, China's dairy farming has basically realized large-scale farming With the tightening of land policy, the rapid rise of personnel wages and the monitoring of food safety, large-scale, standardized and economical farming is the general trend 3jq 2 The government's supervision on the safety of animal products will strengthen a series of food safety events in 3jq in recent years, such as "Sudan red", "cyanamide trichloride", "fast-growing chicken" and other food safety events involving animal products With the improvement of people's living standards, information transparency and speed of dissemination, people will pay more and more attention to food safety, and the government will increase the supervision of livestock and poultry product safety 3jq 3 The fluctuation of aquaculture will still present and the law is becoming less and less obvious 3jq In history, the periodic fluctuation law of China's aquaculture industry is very obvious Some people once said that "three years of compensation, three years of earning, three years of hot wind and fire", but in recent years, it has been "one year of compensation, one year of earning, another year of muddleheaded confusion", and even the situation of "half a year of compensation, half a year of earning, half a year of uncertainty, that is to say, the cycle of fluctuation of aquaculture industry is becoming shorter and shorter, which affects the aquaculture industry The factors are more and more complex, and even professionals can hardly grasp the rules 3jq 4 The trend of China's aquaculture industry in 2013 3jq from the trend of China's aquaculture industry in recent two years, the basic characteristics of the trend of China's aquaculture industry in 2013 are: recovery growth, profitability will slightly increase compared with 2012, but the trend is not obvious, but the possibility of big ups and downs will be weakened The price of 3jq pig products will increase in 2013, and the annual trend will be stronger than that in 2012 However, the profitability will be greatly affected by the wages of workers and feed prices Whether it can be significantly improved remains to be seen Although China's white feather broilers are affected by the "fast-growing chicken gate" event, as a food saving animal, the adult development of the broiler industry is still the trend, which is in line with China's current national conditions It is estimated that the recovery rate in 2013 will be about 5% - 10% Of course, if the "fast-growing chicken gate" event is still fermenting, the uncertainty factors will increase In recent years, the dairy farming industry has been stable, the price of milk has not fluctuated much, and it is basically at a low profit level or not It is predicted that there will be a slight upward trend in 2013 Beef cattle and sheep are relatively optimistic in recent years It is predicted that the price will remain relatively high in 2013 and the fluctuation will not be too large In 2012, laying hens were in a relatively profitable situation Under the influence of this, we should pay attention to the fluctuation of egg prices in 2013, which may lead to a slight downward trend and keep fluctuating trend Under the influence of the rising price in the international fur market, the price of fur animals has been rising since the second half of 2011 As special animals belong to a small industry, it is expected that their prices will be firm in 2013 。 3jq 3: analysis of the characteristics of the mobile insurance industry in 2013 3jq 1 The pace of industry polarization will obviously accelerate 3jq although the overall number of veterinary drug manufacturers in China has been increasing, but this does not mean that all enterprises in the industry are developing normally In fact, in recent years, the trend of polarization in the mobile insurance industry has not stopped, and the trend of strengthening has appeared since 2011 With the fluctuation in 2012 and the impact of some major events, combined with the trend analysis of the national macroeconomic trend, the pace of polarization of the mobile insurance industry in 2013 will be faster 3jq 2 Anti virus concept of traditional Chinese medicine is about to be hot fried Due to the excessive use of some antibiotics and illegal use of antiviral drugs for human use during the "fast growing chicken gate" period, the inspection of some banned drugs by relevant national departments will be more and more intensive, but from the current breeding characteristics, it is unlikely to give up antiviral treatment completely, which requires the emergence of some alternative products, so "antiviral traditional Chinese medicine" will soon appear It's a good concept 3jq 3 The number of product varieties of production enterprises will still be reduced, and the investment in product R & D will increase In 2007, the author wrote an analysis on the trend of animal protection industry in the next five years, in which he mentioned that the average product varieties of animal drug production enterprises will be reduced year by year, which has become a fact With the strengthening of the supervision of relevant national departments, this trend will continue At the same time, in order to improve the competitiveness of enterprises, some powerful enterprises will strengthen their investment in R & D Emphasizing the product advantage will be one of the most important choices for some powerful enterprises in the competition 3jq 4 The average number of enterprises will further reduce 3jq In 2009 and 2010, the author published the "survey report on human resources of veterinary medicine industry" for two consecutive years According to the survey in these years, the average number of employees in veterinary medicine production enterprises is on the decline In particular, the main production enterprises are poultry drugs Because there is a huge technical service team, and the technical service personnel are the most important department for the loss of personnel in veterinary drug production enterprises in recent years, the average number of personnel in the Department has decreased by more than 50% in three consecutive years, so the trend of personnel reduction in the production enterprises mainly engaged in avian drugs is more obvious Due to the constraints of personnel cost and management level, this trend will continue in 2013 3jq 5 The industry standard is still the general trend, which exceeds people's expectation In recent years, the national standard for veterinary medicine industry has never been interrupted and is becoming stronger and stronger It is carried out simultaneously by administrative means and market means Due to people's concerns about food safety, the government will continue to strengthen the supervision of food safety Animal protection industry closely related to animal food safety will become the focus of government supervision It is expected that the industry supervision will be much stronger in 2013 than in any other year in history, and may last for a long time 3JQ